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kenney1037

kenney1037
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  • Mortgage REIT Meltdown, I Told You So [View article]
    Agree with the remark on the 'I told you so' phenomenon. I visit SA very rarely now in that there are a whole lot of supposed experts that post in this blog offering 'expert' analysis. If one listens carefully to many of these pundits, many times comments are cherry picked to lend support to the position on an after the fact basis. A dead clock is wrong twice a day is an apt metaphor, as many of the bears in the doomosphere have predicted Armageddon for years now only to continue to be proven wrong daily. Follow the money OK, are large organizations going to be allowed to fail? i highly doubt it with the political sensitivities as they are in Washington DC now.
    Jul 15, 2013. 06:00 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    I've heard end of market correction from ZH, this analyst and others for several years now. That doesn't make it an authoritative forecast, or some prescient vision about what will happen. Yeah, I'll forecast that AMZN will retreat in price eventually whether it will be now or later, and I will be right also. For every pundit that sees a tank in AMZN I can find others in twitterverse that are just as knowledgable that are seeing a bit of a continued runup. That doesn't make them right nor does it make you right.

    And if you dont think a $80 billion hit or so (a major erosion in share value) wouldn't hit the media you are dreaming, hell they get into extended debates in DC for less than that any more. Sure it can happen, fortunately I do not believe in any company that much to go down with a sinking ship like that. AMZN got where they are because they do what do pretty well, and like any business, if you don't like them, don't use them. I see no metrics visioning an overall decline in internet shopping, helll look at most of your local commercial real estate and retail with vacancies to tell you where the market is going. There are still way too many brick and mortar vacancies in retail.

    I don't need an upside on AMZN to make money on them, I am seeking decent companies to park some money on, work with some options on, and know what I am getting without the spear chuckers in the blogosphere causing major ruckus. I will stand by my earlier remarks that blogosphere comments have a lot of bearing on a share price the next day in the market any more, perhaps more than they should. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, it is where they hold themselves as having as some particular expertise that the reviews are needed.
    Jun 11, 2013. 08:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    For those that don't want to long $AMZN, fine. Just because 25% is not 30% does not cut it to me as to why this is such a large negative development. Nothing keeps growing at high rates forever, get real. And revenue growth on a larger company by definition must come with diminishing percentages if the company itself is bigger.

    I don't expect $AMZN to surge but I sure don't expect a collapse any time soon either with a $126 billion market cap company. Put it this way, they go under this whole country is in deep doo doo.

    Seeking Alpha seems to have these analysts out here sometimes that throw out bombs in the blogosphere/twitterverse and try to come off as authoritative. That can have a pronounced effect on small cap companies for sure, but much harder to effect a large cap with some random comments. It also surprises me how much people parrot along what others post. In any event, to me it is a lot safer from an investment side to head towards large cap, since random Seeking Alpha type blogosphere comments seldom add value any more to me. And everyone is always right in Twitterverse, reminds me very much of Facebook that way with self promotion.

    Any stock can and will come down eventually. If one is fearful of volatility declines like this, then one shouldn't go long.
    Jun 10, 2013. 08:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
    I was unimpressed with PSEC's performance and unloaded them recently. The market was saying that some of the dividend is actually return of capital. Even though a growing dividend even if slightly growing is nice, but the market always seems to know in the BV metrics whether it is true earning we are getting or return of capital. HTGC was a decent buy, but I haven't looked at it in a while. Good suggestion about reviewing HTGC.
    Mar 16, 2013. 03:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
    I always get a smile out of those that use these message threads to promote their own investing philosophies and attempt to vindicate themselves with apparent winning trades in front of others who could care less. There is no ready way to validate what is being claimed so why claim it, Let's be very honest, no one cares a hoot about your portfolio and your financial performance but yourself. If you feel you have a winning formula, congratulations. I know people who go to the casino and behave the same way, we always hear about the winners and never about the losers,

    This is a challenging environment, and I promise you anyone who thinks they can outsmart the market on a consistent basis is an utter fool. Do your due diligence, invest how you are comfortable, there are no right or wrong ways to know in advance what's really going to happen, since none of us can see the future, rely on what you know about your companies and their management and hope for the best. I prefer management who can stand up and be accountable to the shareholders at the periodic meetings, since naturally they work for us. And external news events and Fed policy can chill markets faster than anything even if everything was properly reviewed. Good luck and happy investing!
    Mar 15, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
    I bailed on ARR and JMI in Q1 2013. I am struck by what may be happening with JMI that no one seems to be taking too much notice of yet, as of this writing, JMI certainly appears to be late in its latest 10-Q SEC reporting. Is there any potential ARR management can be looting JMI and the situation much worse than is commonly known? All we see at the moment from JMI are PowerPoint slides and one crappy startup 10-Q. JMI may be a separate holding but is under ARR management. Potential malfeasance here could be an additional red flag to get away from this management group.

    While I enjoyed the gimmick of monthly dividends, it was not enough to incentivize me to stay with them since capital losses on the share value exceeded any return of capital ARR is doing, what they call a dividend payout. I was stunned to see ARR selling in the 6.20s now, in a record setting S&P 500 environment. I realize other mREITs aren't doing all that great either, but at least most seem to be holding their BV or improving a bit. I think TWO is walking on water at the moment, and i have a put in on TWO as it is my opinion a market correction is coming soon when they announce Q1 dividends. Don't get me wrong, I like TWO and have been a past investor and may get back in at some point later. But TWO is way over BV and continues to levitate, this is a significant bubble forming. When it pops, I will jump in with a call option after the market corrects to capture the dividend affect of the price runup with the dividend cycle, whatever the amount is. The YE dividend for TWO of .55 was already telegraphed as not sustainable by TWO management, yet the MV continues to rise high..

    I am learning that many of these mREITs deserve put options in the off-quarter months when they tend to do SPOs. I am actively researching put opportunities on the entire mREIT sector for that reason, including the beloved AGNC. I don't agree why the MV should behave as it does with these SPOs, but it does what it does and I may as well attempt to profit to anticipate SPOs. Share prices do not always appreciate as we know. I wish I had placed a long put option in on ARR a few months ago, seeing what is going on today, and I still may depending on the pricing of the put option premiums.

    mREIT preferreds are an underappreciated way to get access to some relatively reliable income, even if at a lower yield than equities that play games with SPOs and dividend cuts to hurt existing investors. Transparency is huge here as this is all we investors have. AGNC is a model for how an mREIT should perform with shareholder communication and investor confidence building. I was struck by some of the comments from other investors at how opaque ARR management is from their experience by comparison. And if there is any whiff of a chance JMI is being looted to help continue this adverse environment, that harms potential investors more. ARR better step back and look at what investors are saying, because I am seeing a large loss of investor confidence (not just me), reflecting at how the shares are tanking in the market at the moment.
    Mar 15, 2013. 06:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Bomb: Mortgage REITs Triggering UBIT [View article]
    You know Chestnut, not everyone has a REIT inside an IRA although I do, or I did. That's the nice part about investing is not having to listen to arrogant SOBs like you. I thank you and you take a snipe at me, jam it, OK?
    Mar 8, 2013. 06:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Bomb: Mortgage REITs Triggering UBIT [View article]
    Thanks for this informative article on REITs and UBTI. I would like to offer to your readers this current posting from the official REIT website with further context and discussion on this topic:

    http://bit.ly/SZulb0

    While this link doesn't specifically focus on IRAs, it provides good additional industry pretext on what is being discussed here.
    Mar 7, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Are The High Yields Of Financial REITs? [View article]
    Since I have been an AGNC investor, and know my original buyin, I don't think I've ever consulted the basis unless I had to sell. While sure it is important, if you are concerned on cost before making the investment in an mREIT, then perhaps you should look at other alternatives. Most of the AGNC investment community is concerned with BV protection and dividend consistency. The CPA comments in this thread seem to be dwelling more on the mechanics on how the EPS is determined, but from a practical side, taxable versus GAAP EPS to my knowledge has not once affected a dividend payout to me and the other investors. As long as I reap the dividend for the share I've purchased, I don't need to know all the mechanics and even if the dividend yield changes slightly based on how the cost is determined, it is not that significant in the bigger picture in my view.
    Mar 4, 2013. 05:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michigan Governor Rick Snyder declared Detroit to be in a state of emergency on Friday and said he would appoint an outside manager to help turn around its dire finances, which include $14B in long-term liabilities. City officials have ten days to persuade Snyder to change his mind. Should he uphold his decision, it would be the latest step in attempts to prevent Detroit filing what would be the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history. [View news story]
    How naive! Bondholders will take a back seat to unions in any potential bankruptcy, perhaps you will get some of your investment back. I get a kick out of bondholders who think they have a superior claim to all of this. Greece should be a lesson, you will be directed to either take a mandatory haircut or to lose your investment altogether. I would expect Detroit's yields to be shooting up, I sure wouldn't feel too good about my chances to get repaid in full if I held Detroit bonds. And since it is politics and government, they can legislate this away if they choose. Once they have your money (bond purchases, taxes), you are in a bad position until some other member in the Ponzi takes you off the hook.

    Naturally, it only takes a few dominos like Detroit to rattle the entire financial system, with hyperspeed in reporting with online sources and fear running rampant at times with skittish investors. There are not many governments who are solvent in western civilization, they are afraid of contagion for a very good reason. Derivatives continue to be a house of cards that can blow away fast, as they did in 2008.
    Mar 3, 2013. 11:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Safe Are The High Yields Of Financial REITs? [View article]
    I was a TWO shareholder at the time, and TWO management made the mistake of not depicting or characterizing how the .55 was consisted, regular or special dividend portions, in their initial announcement of the year-end dividend.TWO saw fit to communicate as they did. Now I saw recently the TWO CEO in a memo telling prospective shareholders/investors, that the .55 is not the true measure of the company's earning power. We have yet to see what they settle on, .35, .36 or .40 or some other value, but .55 will not be it. TWO mishandled the dividend payout situation at year-end, and it is interesting that investors are still debating this in this thread and perhaps elsewhere.

    JohnWayne, if you could provide your source where TWO said .20 of the dividend was related to Silver Bay in this thread, I would appreciate it. I suspected it was related to the goofiness at year-end with special dividends and the tax stuff related to fiscal cliff, and wanting their cake and eating it too with having the dividend reflected in 2012 financials but not wanting to say it was that.

    To TWO long investors at this time, you better be ready for a price correction when TWO comes clean about this soon. You will take a hit on this with a value reduction. It is not a 17-18% yielder, the CEO has come out and essentially said that recently. When the shakeout completes, and the true dividend and share price are determined, I may well get back in, but I will let the existing long investors take the loss first with the price correction that is coming up.

    I am long AGNC and will likely become long TWO later in March for the reasons described above, and after TWO announcement about their plans for the Q1 dividend.
    Mar 3, 2013. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offerings Continue At American Capital Agency Corp. [View article]
    If you don't consider a 15% dividend yield, or a overall return ROI in excess of 30% a good performance over the past 4 years, then you have some pretty high standards. Good luck in your quest to find a better place to park your investment capital in this goofy equity market and interest rate environment, one where put volume is starting to rise again because the insecure investors are so afraid of losing a bit of capital.

    I challenge your assertion that shareholder value is being diluted. The BV historical metrics don't necessarily back that assertion up, and remember you are getting most of the earnings back if you are a long AGNC investor, even if they have to get cut a little. They also prop up BV if needed by cutting the dividends. Most analysis I am seeing continues that AGNC continues to have high max cash flow position compared to its mREIT peers.

    I am looking into long call options and select protective puts or I may just keep things as is, and it depends on how expensive puts get versus just dumping the shares if i get 'spooked' like my peer investors. My fellow investors annoy me sometimes with their expectations, with sounding alarms and concerns that are utterly misplaced. I think most investors think they are as smart as the Wall Street insiders that think they can get rich quickly and vent on forums like this when they don't. You are entitled to your opinion, but if you express that hogwash in SA, you are in a position to be challenged.
    Mar 2, 2013. 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offerings Continue At American Capital Agency Corp. [View article]
    That's why you should pay attention to the TBA component, Pied Piper, Gary Kain sure is. He's no dummy, he and they all know the NIM is squeezing, and he is looking to continue to look at other sources to bolster the NIM. And tell me what's wrong with a a 14% yield, even if they whack the div. a bit. This isn't 2009-10 any more, the days of 18-20% div. yields appear to be gone, but perhaps that is for the best for staibility in the business model.

    I am impressed with their efforts to lengthen the average duration of their REPOs locking in low financing rates for the longer haul along with being proactive on interest rate swaps and swaptions to hedge the portfolio. AGNC protects BV for the investors in sophisticated ways, and are constantly vigilant for new threats and responses to the business model. This is what we are paying them for, and trusting with our capital.

    If you are content with bond yields, go for it. I am not, and when you consider that union pension interests will usually prevail in a bankruptcy over bondholders, I am not exactly sure what the appeal is for bonds in many cases with puny yields. But hey I'm glad there are bondholders, and strong demand. They help keep general interest rates down, and that does not crush me in the least.
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reduce Or Eliminate Taxes On American Capital Agency, Other REITS [View article]
    Rnixi, in an IRA (not Roth) the interest is tax deferred and declarable when you take a distribution. Since your 70 and are approaching the age for taking mandatory minimum distriutions, you have minimum withdrawal amounts you need to take from your IRA annually. If you aren't familiar with these, I would suggest contacting your tax advisor very soon now to make the best financial moves for you.

    Other things being equal, once your basis is established in a Roth and you have paid your appropriate taxes to get the balances to the Roth, earnings on those assets inside a Roth are tax-free. The major consideration normally is the tax hit with the conversion of IRA funds to Roth and the loss of earning power on the taxes paid when we have the decision to convert balances to a Roth. There is no significance as to whether it is an mREIT or any other security inside the IRA, Uncle Sam wants to know when you are taking distributions. Once more, contact your tax advisor for expertise and guidance if you aren't fully familiar with all of this.
    Feb 28, 2013. 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A Solid Choice For Monthly Income [View article]
    I'll add to the support for PNNT, AGNC, MTGE, and SLRC has also been a consistent payer. I have been long all of these in the past with good results, and am back with AGNC and PSEC long.

    ARR has fallen into disfavor lately with some investors, but honestly I could care less what the investment community in general feels, as long as they continue their dividends, I am with them as a low cost 14% plus dividend yield monthly payer (as I am a long term dividend investor). I am in on JMI as well, who is run by the ARR management team. ARR slipped with some this time when they did an SPO, but I am learning to discount the angst the swing traders like to vent when an mREIT does an SPO to promote or expand the business. Until they cut dividends, to me it is to improve or expand the business as they say in their filings. ARR has cut some recently, but still at 14% div yield at this time. The dividend yield needs to come down a lot more than that for me to jettison out of the position. I'll keep collecting regular monthly checks from ARR and JMI in the meantime, thank you very much.
    Feb 28, 2013. 07:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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