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41 Comments

    • Offshoring Is a Dubious Policy When the Question is Oil Drilling [view article]
      galewhitaker,
      wouldn't it be good if they had more oil to sell to the bidders of the world?       Jul 16 03:34 PM
    • Wind, Natural Gas ETFs: Oil Man Pickens Thinks You'll Make Money [view article]
      Captbob,
      Amen, Precisely!! Add "equitable" to your "faster method of energy generation" and you've hit the bullseye.

      I can't speak for migratory bird issues but wind turbines killing birds is either out of date or urban legend. My experience and the statistics say other common things kill more: buildings, chimneys, cars, etc.

      I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder but my neighbors like my 1 kW turbine on 17 feet tower. I like the industrial ones along the highway and even living on the Rocky Mountain front I have never heard a local say they found any size a menace to the environment. Generally, enthusiasm for the days they run best! It's science and progress in motion.

      Wind is so equitable I don't think Pickens is really scheduling around subsidy issues either.       Jul 16 01:57 PM
    • Offshoring Is a Dubious Policy When the Question is Oil Drilling [view article]
      I just noticed that if that sentance starts with "If" then there needs to be a comma connecting the next sentance, so it looks wrong to me either way and maybe less likely that you accidentally forgot the "If".

      Without adequate testing how can you post "It is true..."? The point has been made above.....

      Otherwise impressive comments from the crowd, thanks for your input.       Jul 16 01:36 PM
    • Offshoring Is a Dubious Policy When the Question is Oil Drilling [view article]
      Mr. Frankel,
      Regarding your original post:

      On grounds of good economic policy the Democrats’ chosen arguments are beside the point. It is true that all the oil in all the offshore sites adds up to “a few months of national consumption.” It would not amount to much as a percentage of world reserves,

      Should the second sentance start with "If it is true...." Did you forget the "If"? Because without the "If", the next sentance should be "It will not amount." I'm not an english major but "would" in the second sentance implies "If" in the first sentance and then I think you would have more friends down here in the comment section.

      Plus the quotes around "months of consumption" seem to imply uncertainty so again I wonder if you accidentally left out the "If".       Jul 16 01:25 PM
    • Wind, Natural Gas ETFs: Oil Man Pickens Thinks You'll Make Money [view article]
      I think the author and Cal48 have hit on the high points.
      1. The Pickens plan is a plan, something missing in most places. And the technologies it's based on are readily available.
      2. Wind energy where it exists costs about $0.12/kWhr or less so is currently viable. While solar PV has potential, its cost is around $0.22/kWhr so I don't understand the shortage for the ongoing world wide build out. Seems PV is too costly to justify the extent of its build out.
      3. Energy independence probably isn't anymore a necessity than independence of anything else in the world, but increasing supply by equitable means empowers those participating. Increasing demand usually means increasing productivity, meeting that demand with more stable alternatives does not squeeze progress against an unsustainable future (headlines of $200 oil, etc.)
      4. The Pickens plan is not mutually exclusive of other options. Nuke plants can be built where they can, coal use can be improved, solar PV can continue down its path, Solar heat to elec. and hot water will offer immediate bennefits. Other renewables, more oil,....
      5. Conservation by lifestyle and technology are moving forward.
      6. Natural gas transportation will work for some, others will be better served by electric. The Pickens Plan makes both more viable without needing a centralized plan to distribute the benefits. Both will benefit gasoline users slower to convert.
      7. The Pickens Plan takes 5 minutes to explain, uses available technology, produces alternatives with viable economies, distributes benefits to manufacturers, financers, contractors, land owners, other? over nearly 1/3 the U.S. Especially nice to see such a widely beneficial approach.
      8. Important step could be to get the auto industry more ready for electric cars.
      9. I think a convincing plan to challenge the perception of inadequate future oil supplies will be part of quick oil price relief.       Jul 16 11:17 AM
    • Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again? [view article]
      Aquaculture, will your posts be at this blog or where should I watch for them? Jul 12 01:00 AM
    • Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again? [view article]
      Aquaculture, you mention, "The capital-intensive Siemens process is a remnant of the semi-conductor era and the silicon solar sector needs a divorce, never a happy marriage in the first place (forced marriages never are)."

      I'm somewhat bearish on PV industry based on delivery of $0.22/kWhr elec. I've associated alot of that price barrier with the nature of the Siemens process that I had a chance to tour and speak with the plant engineering manager. What do you suggest is the alternative for manufacturing polychrystaline and what is the marginal benefit to Siemens.

      My limited experience with Siemens/poly-si leads to thoughts somewhat similar to Shareholders Unite.
      Jul 11 10:09 AM
    • Is There a "Best Way" to Invest in Wind Power? [view article]
      In less than 5 minutes Mr. Pickens can say more than the whole presidential primary race. And even after the camera stops rolling it only takes him a few more seconds to roll out most of phase 2!!

      Attractive electric cars are less than 1 year away. 4 wheel versions are a little bland due to safety laws. 3 wheel versions are exotic and generating a lot of interest because they only have to measure up to motorcycle safety guidelines.

      Add solar heat which is already economically viable and maybe solar PV with a little more improvement over the next couple years and his pie charts look great.

      100% solar hot water alone would reduce U.S. energy demand by 4%. That alone is 3 years energy growth stabilized to execute Pickens' plan. Solar hot water pays 6% ROI with uninflated energy costs before subsidies. Add in minimal 2%/yr energy inflation, the lifetime ROI more than doubles.

      Leadership, education, cooperation can get it done!       Jul 09 01:55 PM
    • Bolt Technology: Charged for Growth [view article]
      Barry R .... "The longer oil stay above $140, the less it seems like a bubble, and the more it seems like a long-term trend"

      Has it even been 2 weeks? I think you would benefit from time scale education from PrudentMan.       Jul 08 02:50 PM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      frflyer, I meant to mention I think you're being too hard on U.S. wind industry. In fact I think the U.S. generates more kWhr by wind than any other country, I think Germany is number 2. The "%" spec you listed is misleading. A GE engineer told me they have a 4 year lead time for industrial turbines (~1.5 MW) so world wide that needs to be improved first. Jul 08 01:04 PM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      frflyer, I wish your post had been first and set the tone. Your direction of describing energy density, quantity, conversion to usable metrics is the focus I've been trying to help create here and other places. Next adding economic values will help bring options into focus.

      I didn't mean solar subisidies are too high on absolute basis. My point is the build out of polysilicon PV via subsidizing an energy source that is 3X more expensive than other options is too early a waste of subsidy resources. And then from the perspective of this investing blog, How good is investing in possible profitability of the supply chain to a technology that is among the worst economic alternatives in its industry? If the subsidy spigot of PV build-out has a reality check what will happen to investments in the supply chain? GE's new position certainly challenges my question. I'm looking for answers as to how PV at $0.23/kWhr is encouraging compared to $0.06 to $0.12 alternatives. I'm all for subsidizing research and pilot manufacturing until productivity starts to come into view, and then start subsidizing commercial roll-out. I think it's way too early for PV. Your other energy suggestions offer more bang per subsidized dollar.

      Small note, away from coastal areas I think you'll find the wind blows more from late morning until late evening. It comes from uneven solar heating of land formations. Coastal influenced by ocean temperatures and follows a differnt pattern.

      Here's a quick vendor link to a solar water heater: 7.5 kWp w/o installation for $6,300. Having installed one, $1000 for installation would be very generous, maybe max $500 shipping. $8,000 installed for 7.5 kWp. Equivalent PV cost is $50,000 per dovetailsolar.com and I don't think that includes installation or shipping.
      shop.solardirect.com/p...       Jul 08 12:39 PM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      I would love to hear from somone that can justify the value of PV at present productivity level ($4/watt) compared to options.

      I massaged the numbers one last time and this time I put an inflation factor into the future value of electic kWhr. Starting with $0.10 and allowing for 40 year non degrading performance of panels and not using any cost for capital (%0 loan) I calculated that the inflation rate for electricity would have to be 3.37%/yr for a $23,500 payback of the 250 kWhr/mo system described in the link below.

      So I would say PV needs to make about a 50% price reduction and then accounting for future inflated elec. costs things will look good. The problem as mentioned above is the kWhr costs of PV has been flat, not decreasing for almost 7 years.

      Hopefully bigger than the residential scale things look better.

      www.dovetailsolar.com/...       Jul 07 04:02 PM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      That $6K solar water heater would be 5 to 7 kW. I just priced one for my neighbors and forgot how much bigger than mine it is. Full year 2.5 kW would be around $3K to $4K. Jul 07 02:11 AM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      Stockbull, I'm not long or short solar stocks. I hope to be long on Earth if we can all get a plan going that works...
      Check out this site with a nice chart of different PV installation costs:
      www.dovetailsolar.com/...
      My efficient home uses around 8 kWhr/day and I pay $25/month.
      On the chart I need the Cottage system: $23K for 2.6 kWp system.
      Look at the payback for me: $300/yr = 1.5%/yr with infinite equip. life and no maintenance. Not too good.

      Just the equip. ammortisized over 30 years is $65/mo!!! 2.5 times the value of the electricity!!!!! With no interest on capital and no maintenance costs!

      I'm all for alternative energy, I own some and it's working great but the enthusiasm for PV is a mystery to me. I'm just visiting to try and understand how it's gotten to this point. My solar water heater would be rated at 2.5 kW and it could be installed professionally for about $6K. I did it myself for summer only use for less than $2K. For full all year use, less than 1/3 the cost of PV.

      Oatleak, I think your vision of a future using electricity for more applications shifting the load off oil/gas is right on target but Solar Heat Elec. is more efficient than PV according to solarbuzz.com. (a twist on the most efficient module available?)       Jul 07 02:05 AM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      ytterbius, thanks for the link.
      This link bottom of page 33 lists my original number and I've seen it other places. I'm not sure if that is important at this point.
      www.peakoilassociates....

      But this link (from 2003) suggests PV is very far from justified without big subsidies. This link seems quite neutral in support of energy options.
      www.solarbuzz.com/Stat...

      This link is current to 2007 and it shows PV about 3X more costly/kWhr than the grid:
      www.solarbuzz.com/Sola...

      So my simple point is maybe at least PV is not a net energy loss but at 3X times the cost of alternatives why should people be lining up for truely valuable investment? Maybe the Bigger Fool Stock Market Bubble of PV is bursting due to a little stimulas from Spain.

      And I think it's important to notice that the $/kWhr has not really come down much in the last 7 years! Economy of scale in production does not help much when such a large part of the cost is energy. I don't see polychrystaline PV ever being a serious contender to the grid...... Thank goodness there's hope in Wind, Solar Heat, maybe Solar Heat Elec, and who knows what else. And if R&D of PV via thin film or something cuts the price by more than 50% great, so subsidize R&D, not inefficient world wide full scale installation.       Jul 06 08:34 PM
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