ART005

LDK Rides Solar Wave Up

My point is that rates above $0.12/kWhr are fabricated by taxes and political agenda that creates higher elec. rates. Certainly remote places like HI and AK are special cases. It is not reality that power is around $0.11/kWhr in MT, WY, NV and over $0.25/kWhr in CA. In fact a lot of power generated in those states is supplied to CA. The higher fabricated rates are then used to justify the productivity of $0.30/kWhr residential PV. You sound convinced, but it's a scam!

On Jun 13 02:03 PM rooferguy wrote:

> Although you are right that average electricity costs are $0.12/kwh,
> you ignore that fact that solar is quite cost effective where rates
> are ABOVE this average.

LDK Rides Solar Wave Up

I wish the world could come to terms that while large commercial Solar PV arrays might have limited opportunities in limited locations, typical residential grid tie installations can't be justified.

If the gov subsidy ammounts towards residential PV were spent on more productive technologies and conservation the world would be doing a lot better.

At the residential level (3 kWp), the power management equipment alone costs more than can be justified by the elec. production: racks, cables, inverter, installation, disconnect, etc. If the panels were free (without subsidies that have to be paid eventually) a 3 kWp system cannot be justified.

The true cost of residential elec. is around $0.12/kWhr. Using tax inflated numbers like $0.25/kWhr to justify residential PV is a shell game. Residential PV costs around $0.30/kWhr. 3 - 10 times alternatives!!

Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again?

Aquaculture, will your posts be at this blog or where should I watch for them?

Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again?

Aquaculture, you mention, "The capital-intensive Siemens process is a remnant of the semi-conductor era and the silicon solar sector needs a divorce, never a happy marriage in the first place (forced marriages never are)."

I'm somewhat bearish on PV industry based on delivery of $0.22/kWhr elec. I've associated alot of that price barrier with the nature of the Siemens process that I had a chance to tour and speak with the plant engineering manager. What do you suggest is the alternative for manufacturing polychrystaline and what is the marginal benefit to Siemens.

My limited experience with Siemens/poly-si leads to thoughts somewhat similar to Shareholders Unite.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

frflyer, I meant to mention I think you're being too hard on U.S. wind industry. In fact I think the U.S. generates more kWhr by wind than any other country, I think Germany is number 2. The "%" spec you listed is misleading. A GE engineer told me they have a 4 year lead time for industrial turbines (~1.5 MW) so world wide that needs to be improved first.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

frflyer, I wish your post had been first and set the tone. Your direction of describing energy density, quantity, conversion to usable metrics is the focus I've been trying to help create here and other places. Next adding economic values will help bring options into focus.

I didn't mean solar subisidies are too high on absolute basis. My point is the build out of polysilicon PV via subsidizing an energy source that is 3X more expensive than other options is too early a waste of subsidy resources. And then from the perspective of this investing blog, How good is investing in possible profitability of the supply chain to a technology that is among the worst economic alternatives in its industry? If the subsidy spigot of PV build-out has a reality check what will happen to investments in the supply chain? GE's new position certainly challenges my question. I'm looking for answers as to how PV at $0.23/kWhr is encouraging compared to $0.06 to $0.12 alternatives. I'm all for subsidizing research and pilot manufacturing until productivity starts to come into view, and then start subsidizing commercial roll-out. I think it's way too early for PV. Your other energy suggestions offer more bang per subsidized dollar.

Small note, away from coastal areas I think you'll find the wind blows more from late morning until late evening. It comes from uneven solar heating of land formations. Coastal influenced by ocean temperatures and follows a differnt pattern.

Here's a quick vendor link to a solar water heater: 7.5 kWp w/o installation for $6,300. Having installed one, $1000 for installation would be very generous, maybe max $500 shipping. $8,000 installed for 7.5 kWp. Equivalent PV cost is $50,000 per dovetailsolar.com and I don't think that includes installation or shipping.
shop.solardirect.com/p...

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

I would love to hear from somone that can justify the value of PV at present productivity level ($4/watt) compared to options.

I massaged the numbers one last time and this time I put an inflation factor into the future value of electic kWhr. Starting with $0.10 and allowing for 40 year non degrading performance of panels and not using any cost for capital (%0 loan) I calculated that the inflation rate for electricity would have to be 3.37%/yr for a $23,500 payback of the 250 kWhr/mo system described in the link below.

So I would say PV needs to make about a 50% price reduction and then accounting for future inflated elec. costs things will look good. The problem as mentioned above is the kWhr costs of PV has been flat, not decreasing for almost 7 years.

Hopefully bigger than the residential scale things look better.

www.dovetailsolar.com/...

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

That $6K solar water heater would be 5 to 7 kW. I just priced one for my neighbors and forgot how much bigger than mine it is. Full year 2.5 kW would be around $3K to $4K.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

Stockbull, I'm not long or short solar stocks. I hope to be long on Earth if we can all get a plan going that works...
Check out this site with a nice chart of different PV installation costs:
www.dovetailsolar.com/...
My efficient home uses around 8 kWhr/day and I pay $25/month.
On the chart I need the Cottage system: $23K for 2.6 kWp system.
Look at the payback for me: $300/yr = 1.5%/yr with infinite equip. life and no maintenance. Not too good.

Just the equip. ammortisized over 30 years is $65/mo!!! 2.5 times the value of the electricity!!!!! With no interest on capital and no maintenance costs!

I'm all for alternative energy, I own some and it's working great but the enthusiasm for PV is a mystery to me. I'm just visiting to try and understand how it's gotten to this point. My solar water heater would be rated at 2.5 kW and it could be installed professionally for about $6K. I did it myself for summer only use for less than $2K. For full all year use, less than 1/3 the cost of PV.

Oatleak, I think your vision of a future using electricity for more applications shifting the load off oil/gas is right on target but Solar Heat Elec. is more efficient than PV according to solarbuzz.com. (a twist on the most efficient module available?)

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

ytterbius, thanks for the link.
This link bottom of page 33 lists my original number and I've seen it other places. I'm not sure if that is important at this point.
www.peakoilassociates....

But this link (from 2003) suggests PV is very far from justified without big subsidies. This link seems quite neutral in support of energy options.
www.solarbuzz.com/Stat...

This link is current to 2007 and it shows PV about 3X more costly/kWhr than the grid:
www.solarbuzz.com/Sola...

So my simple point is maybe at least PV is not a net energy loss but at 3X times the cost of alternatives why should people be lining up for truely valuable investment? Maybe the Bigger Fool Stock Market Bubble of PV is bursting due to a little stimulas from Spain.

And I think it's important to notice that the $/kWhr has not really come down much in the last 7 years! Economy of scale in production does not help much when such a large part of the cost is energy. I don't see polychrystaline PV ever being a serious contender to the grid...... Thank goodness there's hope in Wind, Solar Heat, maybe Solar Heat Elec, and who knows what else. And if R&D of PV via thin film or something cuts the price by more than 50% great, so subsidize R&D, not inefficient world wide full scale installation.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

The last info I found was Polychrystaline PV still uses more than 2 times more energy making the panels as is delivered over their 25 year life. At some point subsidies of the negative return will fade away and then what will be the value of the PV industry? Wind and Solar Heat have positive lifetime energy values. Solar Heat to elec. I'm not sure.