ART005

And You Think Today's Gas Prices Are High?

Mickel98, nice post and so much shorter than mine.

This link goes to a long paper with lots of quantitative info about the size of the energy supply challenge going forward. My summary of it would be nuclear and advances in coal are the only real hope and even that doesn't address the liquid fuel necessities though more electric travel when possible is helpful towards that. And the time frame for those is worrisome.

www.peakoilassociates....

It respects contributions from wind, solar heat and other alternatives but it draws attention to their limit in density and possible rate of build out.

And You Think Today's Gas Prices Are High?

First line of my post should have said "trauma today...... come WITH relatively low..." not "come FROM.... "

Ooops, I don't do well typing in these little boxes, SEEKING ALPHA: How about a Preview Page prior to posting?

And You Think Today's Gas Prices Are High?

I think Dr. Perry's point is that the difficulty and trauma of the food/energy costs today come from relatively low costs compared to our history. And that the basis of the difficulty is the growth of the extent of the dependence we've developed. So then while we have the ability to slowly increase our (world) energy options, our faster growing demand and dependence creates the crisis. Going much far backwards in living standards isn't a viable option but awareness of personal contributions to conservation/local generation can be a growing part of the solution. High on the suggested list: solar water heaters, electric transportation, and with some lag time less urban sprawl.

I wish there was more complete description of solar PV productivity being distributed. At this point, counting all manufacturing costs it is about twice as expensive as base line options. The Left/Green crowd talks like it is a conspiracy that solar PV is not being used more. I have solar water heat, experimental wind turbine, passive solar home, drive less than 8,000 miles per year and don't have solar PV because because I know better. I'm afraid that capital being spent building out solar PV is going to restrict equitable options in the future (though I totally support subsidized RESEARCH towards ~$1/watt!)

An example connecting comments from CLH and #51292 would be if a $billion tractor increased farm yields 25% and on paper solved the world's food supply, it wouldn't necessarily solve the world's food problem. The problem would be transferred from food to national debt. Oil is cheap compared to most alternatives, alternatives that cost significantly more than oil aren't part of the immediate solution.

Consider that the average 16 year old can purchase 1 gallon of gas for $4 and then safely move 3000 pounds 25 or more miles down the road in less than 30 minutes. For that cost, in that amount of time, I don't think the 16 year old could possibly find another way to accomplish that much work. Finding ways to make that work more productive becomes important as costs go up.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Anaconda,
It seems that a critical issue is determining an estimate of the rate of production of Abiotic Oil. Possibly some function of the size of the reaction zone, the kinetics of the materials finding each other, the velocity of products to within reach of the surface, etc.

That would establish an ongoing expectation of new oil supply (with additional drilling as necessary.) If it's lower than forecasted demand that would explain oil fields being depleted (the peak oil crowd.) The amount that it is lower becomes the basis for the future energy build out program for the world. There would be a target for timing of various amounts of additional energy supply going forward. Based on confidence of technology, economics and lead time you can choose from: Nuclear, Coal, Wind, and others.

Astrology types make predictions about when a star is going to burn out. Seems like a similar system to model. The reaction has already been demonstrated in the lab. Do you know if the Abiotic Oil crowd is working on that estimate?

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

I don't understand the strength of arguing that things that take time are not worth doing because there's no immediate value. Availability of natural resources is like a revolving door. When the size and rpm of the door matches the taffic everyone is happy. Then when it can't keep up there is unrest while an additional or faster door is installed. It'd be nice if new door capacity was always in the pipeline but often deliberate barriers prevent it. Heck I would say there are people that make a career of preventing new capacity.

All of the informed comments add up to saying future oil is available. Supply/demand imbalances suggest difficult times in the future. While it's uncertain that oil will always be able to serve world expansion of its current energy market sectors. Moving forward, alternatives will replace some of oil's energy sectors. Every year allows more opportunities to evolve to help recover the balance. Consumption will be pressured by supply imbalances which will help recover the balance. The next 5 years could be difficult but doing nothing is probably a death sentance.

Demand for gas and such is dropping faster and further than ever before. Time will tell where it goes. Look at the options already available at local level:

* $3K to $5K solar water heater saving about $200 to $400 per year. China is using thousands of them.
* 40 to 50 mpg cars compared to typical 25 mpg cars. Making the switch brings the effective price of gas down from $4 to $2.5.

And known but a little further down the road:
* Suppliers of big industrial wind turbines are sold out with 4 year lead times. A weak estimate of new annual capacity is the equivalent of 2400 bbl/day/year of oil. I would love to hear of an accurate estimate if someone can provide. Maybe in 5 years they can get to 25,000 bbl/day/year.
* Nuclear and coal to electric have lots of additional capacity potential to service evolving electric transportation and geothermal heat pumps displacing those energy demands from the gas/oil side.
* Coal to gas.

And still out of sight but maybe someday:
PhotoVoltaic and who knows what else.

I think the presented static review of the oil numbers is less than half the picture. Improvements in oil with whatever lead time will simply be part of the basket of solutions. But I agree the future looks to have some difficult times to compensate for the complacency of the past.

Save Money on Gas - Drive More Slowly

whiplasdh1,
There's a very clear chart at the top that shows mpg efficiency at 60 mph equal to 30 mph so 30 mph highways never suggested. In fact some (generally smaller) cars are geared such that 60 mph is more efficient than 55 mph. So up to 65 is very reasonably efficient and as the atricle says by 75 mph there are costs that people might prefer not to pay.