ART005

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Anaconda,
It seems that a critical issue is determining an estimate of the rate of production of Abiotic Oil. Possibly some function of the size of the reaction zone, the kinetics of the materials finding each other, the velocity of products to within reach of the surface, etc.

That would establish an ongoing expectation of new oil supply (with additional drilling as necessary.) If it's lower than forecasted demand that would explain oil fields being depleted (the peak oil crowd.) The amount that it is lower becomes the basis for the future energy build out program for the world. There would be a target for timing of various amounts of additional energy supply going forward. Based on confidence of technology, economics and lead time you can choose from: Nuclear, Coal, Wind, and others.

Astrology types make predictions about when a star is going to burn out. Seems like a similar system to model. The reaction has already been demonstrated in the lab. Do you know if the Abiotic Oil crowd is working on that estimate?

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

I don't understand the strength of arguing that things that take time are not worth doing because there's no immediate value. Availability of natural resources is like a revolving door. When the size and rpm of the door matches the taffic everyone is happy. Then when it can't keep up there is unrest while an additional or faster door is installed. It'd be nice if new door capacity was always in the pipeline but often deliberate barriers prevent it. Heck I would say there are people that make a career of preventing new capacity.

All of the informed comments add up to saying future oil is available. Supply/demand imbalances suggest difficult times in the future. While it's uncertain that oil will always be able to serve world expansion of its current energy market sectors. Moving forward, alternatives will replace some of oil's energy sectors. Every year allows more opportunities to evolve to help recover the balance. Consumption will be pressured by supply imbalances which will help recover the balance. The next 5 years could be difficult but doing nothing is probably a death sentance.

Demand for gas and such is dropping faster and further than ever before. Time will tell where it goes. Look at the options already available at local level:

* $3K to $5K solar water heater saving about $200 to $400 per year. China is using thousands of them.
* 40 to 50 mpg cars compared to typical 25 mpg cars. Making the switch brings the effective price of gas down from $4 to $2.5.

And known but a little further down the road:
* Suppliers of big industrial wind turbines are sold out with 4 year lead times. A weak estimate of new annual capacity is the equivalent of 2400 bbl/day/year of oil. I would love to hear of an accurate estimate if someone can provide. Maybe in 5 years they can get to 25,000 bbl/day/year.
* Nuclear and coal to electric have lots of additional capacity potential to service evolving electric transportation and geothermal heat pumps displacing those energy demands from the gas/oil side.
* Coal to gas.

And still out of sight but maybe someday:
PhotoVoltaic and who knows what else.

I think the presented static review of the oil numbers is less than half the picture. Improvements in oil with whatever lead time will simply be part of the basket of solutions. But I agree the future looks to have some difficult times to compensate for the complacency of the past.