ART005

2009 Countdown: Top 10 Solar Trends

apberusdisvet: can I give you 10 thumbs up!!??

The environment necessary to support the nonsense of residential grid tie solar PV is being manufactured out of the same unfounded nonsense as climate gate. I suppose this thread is more focused on central PV rather than distributed PV (though Jigar said " 2010 is the year that solar/distributed generation becomes cheaper than new Coal") DISTRIBUTED!

Fred W: My numbers are spot on and location has almost nothing to do with it. Suggesting it does is like asking for more Kool-Aide. If you are into the PV dream you've seen the Solar Intensity Maps, you know 4 peak hours per day is a conservative average especially when you start accounting for over 10% losses in the residential power management itself. Coal costs what it costs, Nuclear costs what it costs, the sun shines for the hours it does, pretending CA needs one solution while Nebraska needs another radically different solution is part of the scam.... Slightly adjusted regional distribution of the supply components yes.

What numbers are you having trouble with: $0.05/kWhr Coal, 5% loan rate, $15,000 installed (unsubsidized!) 5 kWp residential grid tie PV (very generous!), 4 hrs Peak Solar per day?? Residential elec. rates of $0.08 - $0.11/kWh? First off those are my rates, 2nd they are double wholesale cost so that should ring true. My industrial rate is $0.055/kWh but that is for $100,000/mo bills. These are the numbers. A sophomore can do the math. What other numbers are there!?

I live and breathe the reality of this stuff, no Kool-Aide!!

2009 Countdown: Top 10 Solar Trends

Hey Jigar, when an article like this gets top billing from SA you're going to get a wider audiance than your typical home team. Coal fired power is $0.05/kWhr. You can't put everything but the panels on a 5 kWp residential grid tie PV for under $0.10/kWhr. Then you can pay for the panels and get yourself somewhere around $0.20/kWhr. It doesn't matter if the panels are free, don't worry about 50% less. And don't forget to add cost of money, around 5% right now. On a $15K, 5 kWp installation that's $62.50/mo in interest with no principal paid!!!! In a good location a 5 kWp array will produce 20 kWhr/day = 600 kWhrs/mo. At $0.11/kWhr that's $66/mo of electricity. You've got $3.50/mo to pay $15,000 loan, maintenance and repair and line charges for storage via the grid you might like to shun. And don't use fake $0.25/kWhr rates to justify your dream. Those rates are fabricated to create the business cycle you dream of. The other scam by the power companies is to charge $0.08/kWhr for the power (basically their cost) and then collect $20/mo service fee for their benefit. Why be in the troubling power business when you can get the Public Service Commission to let you be in the Collect $20/mo business!? You've been drinking too much of the Kool-Aid!!!

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

The never ending faith in residential grid-tie PV amazes me. I don't remember Robert Cast's article but 1.5 yrs ago I was the only one in an SA article saying LDK was not destined from $15 to $26, I suggested $10 for kicks, now I think it's $6. Look at some basic energy numbers: Coal power plants sell commercially at $0.07/kWhr and residentially at $0.085/kWhr. Nuclear costs less than $0.08/kWhr. Solar is still trying to break $0.15/kWhr, jerrydd's numbers are pretty good but he misses the point that the power companys will add to consumer's cost to use grid-tie PV and if you try to use batteries your cost for the batteries alone is over $0.25/kWhr. My residential power bill is $0.085/kWhr but my monthly service fee just went from $5 to $20/mo as a gov. subsidy for wind turbine installation. Wind turbines cost half as much as PV on a $$/kWhr basis. So my 100 kWhr/mo elec. bill is $29. That is almost $0.30/kWhr for power that my company 30 miles away pays $0.07/kWhr!! Basically I am being taxed $15/mo or half my bill to solve the illusion of global warming.

You can not produce grid-tie residential PV from a 3 kWp system at under $0.10/kWhr if the panels were free! Racks, cables, labor, inverter and such alone will break the budget!! Don't suggest hiding the cost in subsidies, it cost what it cost regardless of who is paying for it.

The whole residential grid-tie PV concept is based on lies with more lies. While you're clicking thumbs-down, keep this in mind: I own a solar water heater, geothermal heat pump, 1 kWp turbine, passive solar home, biomass stove and water heater, $4000 30+ mpg car, registered PE, my inventions are saving industry enough energy to run a small town. I live what I'm talking about, those of you getting your info from Google need to wake up to the lies! If you don't think lies on that scale are possible then read the gov.'s proposal for improving health care......

Solar Stocks Feeling the Heat

I don't think it's right to cut the solar industry so much slack calling them a new industry. Solar panels have been popular for at least 30-40 years that I can remember. I don't think it's right to cut them slack on economies of scale. They are receiving strong subsidies and production facilities are near capacity.

All of this is their favor and they are still over $5/watt. More than all the traditional energy options people say they don't like anymore. More than wind. And more than other mechanical type options like wave or geothermal.

Solar has a couple nagging problems that keep it a loosing proposition: it takes tremendous electrical energy quantities to manufacture solar panels, solar panels have low capture efficiency per area. If these govern economic efficiency of solar panels no increase is size improves their benefit! Until collection efficiency is improved over 200%, subsidized installation of solar panels is a loosing proposition. I wish it wasn't so....

Consider simple comparison at consumer level:
2.5 sq. meter solar water heater colector: ~$6300, 7500 BTU/hr = 2.2 kW. shop.solardirect.com/p...

2.2 kW PV panel at $5/watt = $11,000 plus ~$1300 inverter = +$12,000 minimum plus racks and maybe more.

35% sunlight * 365 days * 24 hrs * 2.2kW * $0.10/kW*hr = $675/yr. and that is on the high side.

Example gives 10.7%/yr for solar heat, and 5.5% for PV. After installation costs they each loose a couple percentage points and then PV is too close to 0% while heat is equitable. Every hotwater user should evaluate solar heat. Subsidizing PV research to at least cut costs in half before extensive uneconomical installations helps preserve financial assets for future opportunities.