ART005

Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again?

Aquaculture, will your posts be at this blog or where should I watch for them?

Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again?

Aquaculture, you mention, "The capital-intensive Siemens process is a remnant of the semi-conductor era and the silicon solar sector needs a divorce, never a happy marriage in the first place (forced marriages never are)."

I'm somewhat bearish on PV industry based on delivery of $0.22/kWhr elec. I've associated alot of that price barrier with the nature of the Siemens process that I had a chance to tour and speak with the plant engineering manager. What do you suggest is the alternative for manufacturing polychrystaline and what is the marginal benefit to Siemens.

My limited experience with Siemens/poly-si leads to thoughts somewhat similar to Shareholders Unite.

Solar Stocks Feeling the Heat

I don't think it's right to cut the solar industry so much slack calling them a new industry. Solar panels have been popular for at least 30-40 years that I can remember. I don't think it's right to cut them slack on economies of scale. They are receiving strong subsidies and production facilities are near capacity.

All of this is their favor and they are still over $5/watt. More than all the traditional energy options people say they don't like anymore. More than wind. And more than other mechanical type options like wave or geothermal.

Solar has a couple nagging problems that keep it a loosing proposition: it takes tremendous electrical energy quantities to manufacture solar panels, solar panels have low capture efficiency per area. If these govern economic efficiency of solar panels no increase is size improves their benefit! Until collection efficiency is improved over 200%, subsidized installation of solar panels is a loosing proposition. I wish it wasn't so....

Consider simple comparison at consumer level:
2.5 sq. meter solar water heater colector: ~$6300, 7500 BTU/hr = 2.2 kW. shop.solardirect.com/p...

2.2 kW PV panel at $5/watt = $11,000 plus ~$1300 inverter = +$12,000 minimum plus racks and maybe more.

35% sunlight * 365 days * 24 hrs * 2.2kW * $0.10/kW*hr = $675/yr. and that is on the high side.

Example gives 10.7%/yr for solar heat, and 5.5% for PV. After installation costs they each loose a couple percentage points and then PV is too close to 0% while heat is equitable. Every hotwater user should evaluate solar heat. Subsidizing PV research to at least cut costs in half before extensive uneconomical installations helps preserve financial assets for future opportunities.