ozzy43

False Data Clobbers the Markets

"The bottom line is that this planet is flush with oil and even if it wasn't, we will have alternative technologies for transportation and energy fully integrated into society within twenty years. Cars will run on natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity. Energy will come from solar, wind, geothermal, or nuclear. Take your pick."

Naked assertions without any logic or data to support them are less than persuasive - the author may wish to look up the definition of 'analysis' because this exercise in magical thinking does not qualify. Don't get me wrong - I'm a big fan of magical thinking - it allows me to buy on the dips from folks who engage in it. Let's all repeat together: "oil is not a finite resource - and besides we can always fall back on magic pixie dust if need be."

It really doesn't matter how much oil is in the ground, what matters is whether anyone is ready, willing and able to pay the costs (monetary and otherwise) to extract it. How many polar and deepwater drilling rigs are there in the world? What's the ERoEI for tar sands? Oil shale? Why aren't the IOCs already busy drilling on the leases they have in the OCS? Where does the natural gas come from, given that the same peak dynamics are impacting that fossil fuel as oil? What's the supply situation for uranium look like, and how much energy will it cost to find, mine, extract, transport and process it? How much would it cost to build and operate enough nuclear plants? Wind farms? Solar plants? What's the amortization picture for all those gas fired plants that just got built? What's the feedstock for hydrogen?

And bottom line: who is going to pay for all of this considering we as a nation are dead BROKE and the banks are reluctant to lend money for CARS, let alone for massively capital intensive projects like, say, replacing the entire energy infrastructure of this nation over a quick time span of only a couple of decades?

For those who prefer a little reality in crafting their long term perspective, I suggest the 2005 Dept of Energy Study, and it's 2006 and 2007 follow up reports on mitigation strategies, by Dr Robert Hirsch:

www.netl.doe.gov/publi...
www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/...
www.d-n-i.net/fcs/pdf/...

Hirsch's bio:

* Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC (World oil production)
* Senior Energy Analyst, RAND (Various energy studies)
* Vice President of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
* Vice President and Manager of Research and Technical Services for Atlantic Richfield Co. (ARCO) (Oil and gas exploration and production).
* Founder and CEO of APTI, a roughly $50 million/year company now owned by BAE Systems. (Commercial & Defense Department technologies).
* Manager of Exxon’s synthetic fuels research laboratory.
* Manager of Petroleum Exploratory Research at Exxon. (Refining R & D).
* Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) responsible for renewables, fusion, geothermal and basic research. (Presidential Appointment).
* Director of fusion research at the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and ERDA.

Next, google Matt Simmons, CEO of the largest energy investment bank in the world, and take a look at any of the numerous presentations and interviews he's given. Here are some startingf points:

www.financialsense.com...
www.ogfj.com/display_a.../
www.economist.com/peop...
www.simmonsco-intl.com...

Finally, how about testimony from one of the most conservative Repubilcan Congressmen, Roscoe Bartlett:

bartlett.house.gov/Ene.../
www.energybulletin.net...
www.energybulletin.net...

Folks, these are not Birkenstock wearing tree huggers. Not sure what the energy background of the author of this bit of speculative fiction above is, but I'm willing to bet he's just a tad overmatched here.

"The other fallacy among oil bulls is that the growing middle class of India and China will cause a world wide shortage. ...Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Japan and Russia are losing drivers every year. By 2030 there will be 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. Japan will lose 60 million people. Russia 30 million."

Drivers? Is the author under the impression that the only use for petroleum is *gasoline* and the only users are shoppers and commuters?! What about agriculture? Mining? Commerical transportation? Manufacturing? Plastics? Pharamceuticals? Asphalt? etc...

Pop quiz: what is the rate of GLOBAL population growth? (Hint: all these people will want to eat)

Cherry picking a half dozen nations whose replacement rate is low isn't analysis - it's blatant bias and distortion (in the best case, ineptitude) seemingly intended to introduce false data. Precisely the problems this piece of "analysis" (and I do use that word loosely!) purports to address.

Writing an essay on misinformation and then, within it, promulgating misinformation - Orwell would be proud.