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  • Am I Bearish Or Are You Just WAY Too Bullish? [View article]
    Sad to say but most 401K and pension plan investments increase near market tops as investors become more and more certain that a greater amount of their eggs should be in stocks.

    I don't know 1 person in my department (finance, large multinational companies, significant sample size) that changes their 401K allocation at anytime throughout the year or at all, I find your statement more self serving than true. Pension plans were not included in the 401K bucket, and with many going into index funds, its more constant stable inflow than random outflow.
    Aug 2, 2015. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Am I Bearish Or Are You Just WAY Too Bullish? [View article]
    @leviek although I agree with your opinion and how visionaries can be early on market timing, how do you look at the constant amount of $ coming into the market from 401K and 403b contributions on a monthly basis as insensitive buyers? I am not sure where to look for the monthly $ of tax deferred contributions, but the number must be significant, and with more CFPs wanting people to be diversified with a portion in small cap and foreign, as well as using etfs as passive market tracking ong term investments, there is less and less managed funds to move the market. Therefore, the only detractor are retirees withdrawing their funds, which is not as big as planned. .

    To me this just makes the long term currently net positive for many years, regardless of valuation. . .
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Am I Bearish Or Are You Just WAY Too Bullish? [View article]
    What's more interesting is the discussion of price insensitive investors, which also include 401(k) passive investors and corporate buy backs from companies without growth visions but for current incentive plan payouts. Is the macro level cash inflows and outflows of the market just the difference between retirement account monthly passive investments plus corporate buybacks and M&A less retirees annual required payouts?
    Jul 30, 2015. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Healthcare REITs For A Healthier Retirement Portfolio [View article]
    I would like to say that the opening discussion about forecasting is one of the best introductions to equity investing that I have read in a long time. And a long time ago, I believe that commented on a CC article that didn't have this underlying belief.

    The health care reits are a great long term opportunity for the changing demographics as well as the changing business model of healthcare in general. If you travel and observe new building patterns, you will see an increase in urgent care centers, servicing health care needs that doesn't need a full service hospital. Many of these can be considered MOBs, and are expanding into areas where populations have grown faster than full service hospitals. good reit fundamentals.

    The large full service hospitals are currently financially struggling due to the economic pressures applied to them from health insurance providers and corporations who purchase health care insurance who want to negotiate lower costs. So the largest risk to the REIT leasing cash flows are the quality and type of leasees which each REIT contains. You get excellent diversification with the REIT, and the other non interest rate changes in valuation may come from some of the underlying changes in the full service hospital financial exposures.

    Excellent article, well written analysis of several choices, and picking up quality dividend equities at undervalued prices for the retirement portfolio makes this article one to print out at home and reread when one isn't quite sure what to do next with some new found cash.
    Jun 20, 2015. 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everybody Out Of The Pool! [View article]
    Excellent macro plus micro modeling and analysis. I always believe that the macro is the more dominant influence, and in this analysis, the macro is very well laid out. Even though I failed the CFA, working in corporate finance, I see all the same issues play out in other companies in different ways, and most strategies work until they don't due to short term corporate incentive plans versus long range strategic planning.

    I am a new follower!
    May 30, 2015. 06:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: These Go To Eleven [View article]

    while i agree with your analysis, the subtle globalization of the stock market may have disconnected the relationship between the value of the US stock market and related indices, and the US domestic economy. What happens to the relationship between the equity indices and the US economy IF global investors abroad decide that the SPY is the best investment for 30% of their investable capital?

    What I worry about is the Caymen Island effect, where the local economy has no relationship to the corporate headquarters and equity markets which are domiciled on the island. The island people see empty offices which occassionally have a meeting every quarter, and pay minimal taxes to support the local economy, but the offices have the address in the country. Now this is an example of the potential disconnect, which may be occurring in the US at the moment. . and may get worse in the future

    and I am a subscriber to your emails!

    Nov 17, 2014. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE To Propel Market Treacherously Higher After Taper Ends [View article]
    One of the best articles of the year. Technical, but understandable, and importantly stated that all effects are not equal and immediate, as a simple assumption would like it to be.

    James A. Kostohryz is one of my top 5 authors at SA

    Jul 11, 2014. 11:02 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Is The Market Melting Up? [View article]
    Market volatility will continue to decline as ETF trading increases. ETF by definition is passive investment, and by definition passive investment has zero volatility. ETF volume only passes the net change in outstanding shares through to the actual stocks, so ETF volume is irrelevant, just ETF share ownership. So I expect the volatility to continue to new lower levels as the current market conditions persist.

    Wall Street can't create new investment products and not change the old investment products, its a zero sum game for the most part. . . shift to passive = remove from active. . .
    Jun 23, 2014. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]

    great investment and outcome so congratulations! What you have to accept is that investment and trading involves a tremendous amount of EVENT risk, trillions times more so that having a job and going to work every day. Think 9/11, flash crash, takeovers, bankruptcies, read Didier Sornette's work. Event risk can be classified as extremely random, which makes forecasting and predicting nearly impossible. Likewise, the shorter the time frame, the more difficult. You were successful on a longer term time frame, don't equate the shorter term events with the longer term investments.

    Investments and trading is merely assuming/forecasting/p... that past patterns will repeat in the future, its as simple as that whether you are a quant or a value investor, a portfolio manager or day trader, long or short, even when mathematics is involved.
    May 20, 2014. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    Cal Boomer,
    Investing or trading is always about a future positive expectancy. The fact that the future is uncertain, very uncertain, means that many will be wrong. But there is no one rational who trades or invests for directional gain, either with a portfolio or individual equities who is wanting a futuristic capital loss. Therefore there is an implicit expectation of directional movement in the chosen instrument. The other issue is that everyone has a motive, whether its to manage your money, past performance is the sales pitch, or ego, having the correct forecast to have you subscribe or be a follower.

    Can't have it both ways. . .
    May 19, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spinning Your Wheels [View article]
    excellent analysis of the current psychology. I believe that the bond market is signalling a velocity of money slowdown, which is a result of decreased discretionary spending due to increase in taxes and food / rental inflation. Layoffs of the *quality* jobs continue, happened this month at my company and has been announced more will go in quarter 3. EPS growth is being accelerated with share buybacks, and will continue until the expenses can't be cut anymore and revenue growth doesn't support the stock buyback excess cash flow. Then the final collapse will happen, which will be several years from now. The US is facing a huge funding issue in the next 20 years as boomers retire and expect social security payouts from contributions from the glory days. the shrinking mid class jobs being replaced with service jobs at half the salary wage, resulting in reduced SS contribution levels under the current structure. When will the final collapse come, don't know, but its is inevitable as Congress is reactionary, not proactive, and won't be able to prevent the final collapse.
    May 18, 2014. 09:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail warning: Apparel sellers at ground zero of promotional frenzy [View news story]
    Must match this data against gift card purchases which are future sales - store sales plus gift card sales = holiday spending!
    Dec 23, 2013. 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Warren Buffett Nailed Another Market Top? [View article]
    Does valuation timing = large macro cycle timing? correlation, but not necessarily causation? I would assume so, since the two go hand in hand. However, buffet's behaviors indicate valuation timing, which one can infer long macro cycle timing into your portfolio behaviors. . .
    Sep 20, 2013. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Underlying Cash Burn Is Worse Than It Appears [View article]
    Common retail strategy is not to let any competitor have uncontested customer base. The more important point is if there is a significant retail company consolidation, JCP and including Bon Ton, and some of the other weaker retail companies, that puts direct pressure on the mall operators' profitability and occupancy results, evan Macy's not getting the growth at the same malls. . .

    there is a macro cascading effect here, and full disclosure I am short JCP looking for a good covering pricing. .
    Aug 30, 2013. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Underlying Cash Burn Is Worse Than It Appears [View article]
    Interesting observation on JCP and SHL, from an interview on CNBC, is that JCP and Sears have very, very similar customer demographics. Can both existing in the same location and both be strong? If JCP goes done, its a large portion on SPG SImon Properties tenant base. .

    Aug 28, 2013. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment