sportsguy

Dollar Weakness Continues

interesting article, as I myself had all my money OUT of equities within two weeks of the very top of 2008, however, I have not re-invested, as the liquidity source for the current rally can be withdrawn at any time, via the FED or via the collapse of the treasury's funding source, resulting in higher interest rates. However, macro man is missing the same point i missed, a domestic indicator does little to help understand international + domestic growth. If the SP500 represents the worlds' top 250 intl companies, and IF the rest of the world recovers faster and sooner, the domestic indicator will be a misleading indicator.

sportsguy

We're in a Pattern of Increasingly Longer Employment Recoveries

The more capitalizm looks for cheaper sources of equivalent labor, and the US is one of the more expensive labor pools, the only change will be if the chinese unpegs their currency from the dollar, because then it will go higher, and then chinese labor + transportation will start to get a more equal playing field. . . ./

the issue is that the US employed doesn't want to take the equivalent hit to their incomes that are necessary to bring US jobs back from over seas, because then eveyone will default on their mortgages. . .

unemployment insurance is the ONLY recession spending that the US should undertake, and the US should tax the public company bonuses at much higher rates, as well as increase the FICA payment limit to unlimited, so that the unemployment and SS funds will be around when we HAVE to retire

A Teflon Rally Running on Volume Fumes

very consistent with the fall in the velocity of money, and the rise in the fed balance sheet. money in stocks turning over or being parked does not increase the velocity of money in the economic system.

The market is not the economy and the economy is not the market, and there is monetary incentive in the market, and the rally will be real when the sub market indices' market correlation begins to fall.

The market is assuming that the past is a one time isolated event, and that the government support will bridge the gap of the typical recession. However, the recession will be over when year over year domestic revenues increase, excluding foreign revenue at a favorable exchange rate. and capacity utilization broaches 75%.

until then the volume will be light, consistent with increased savings rate, decreased growth through credit, and an slow destruction of old capacity, slowly increasing capacity utilization.

This Market to Workers: 'Welcome to the Jungle'

this structural change will continue until the cost of US mfg = foreign mfg cost plus transportation. Then, the playing field will be leveled, and the world will be flat. Now this is almost here now or a long way down, depending on your current position. AND how will the US Government prevent possible social upheaval, leading from the survival need to be fed and sheltered, during this structural change.

Minsky's thesis that capitalism is inherently unstable, creating booms and busts, is still true, as is being seen today. Likewise, let companies pay people whatever they want, just lets tax the excess at a significantly higher rate, to benefit all the cost cutting unemployment the executives actioned for their own benefit.

sportsguy

Options Trader Monday Outlook: Microbe Mania

excellent writing and summarization of trends and thoughts. . . you are definately not an obsequious sycophant to Wall Street.

dont forget APT, which also makes masks. . . though a move has already been made.

sportsguy

Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Reports Seen as Vital to Markets

But at least we won't all be waiting for a big fall anymore.

at some point soon,everyone with less cash, will be in the market and the economy won't have shown any significant growth, and the P/E will be about 60 and there won't be another big fall?

How much does one pay for no growth?

Double Dip Recession - What Does It Look Like?

am I correct in thinking that the 80s issues were also caused by Alan Greenspan? WIN? the double dip may happen depending if Bernanke is re-appointed, and or who his successor might be if not. The issue today is whether the government will make a second big mistake, which will cause the double dip. . . its not up to the people, we will be trying to survive no matter what the idiots on capital hill decide. They hold our fate in their votes.

sportsguy

Options Trader: Thursday Outlook

I shorted Bernanke's reappointment at Intrade last week. . .

LOL

Options Expiration Week Similarities Continue

The next question is if there is a transition from week 3 expiry to month end expiry, has this moved the volatily to a different time period in respect to week 3 expiry?

sportsguy

The Innovation Dividend: Efficiency Isn't Growth

capitalistic efficiency leads to a larger gap between haves and have nots, and technological efficiency leads to an automated economy which will eat its young! or its customer base. . . the downward spiral to socialism continues until the US wage structure equals the chinese age structure + shipping. . . with a growing population, social unrest will be the first sign that socialism on the backs of corporate taxes will be necessary. . .

Bond Market to Obama: Oh No, You Can't...

since the US outsourced its mfg to china, its only fair that China buy the huge treasury demand to subsidize its customers and its customer's health care program. China should want its customer base to survive, correct? . . .

sportsguy

Economic Ramifications of Skyrocketing Long-Term Unemployment

try being out of work for 3 years, Dec 2001 to Nov 2004 with the caveat of getting a temp job or a permanent job within an hour's drive of my current location, and a job matching my existing skill set. . .

this time, I wouldn't get a job with my existing skill set, which is finance and financial forecasting systems, being over 50. . .

since the US outsourced its mfg to china, its only fair that China buy the huge treasury demand to subsidize its customers and its customer's health care program. China should want its customer base to survive, correct? . . . only when mfg wages fall to the equivalent to China + shipping will the work return to the US. . . and that's a long way down.

sportsguy

John Hussman: 'Revulsion' Should Precede True Market Bottom

revulsion is a bit strong, severe equity apathy similar to the bottom in 1982 would be most appropriate. .

The No-News Market Move

A sustainable market move upwards will begin when the loan loss reserves quarterly amounts begin to substantially decrease from extreme levels. That will be news worth reading and acting upon.

The No-News Market Move

the reason why the market goes up is more buyers than sellers. . . the reason that buyers are buying though has so many potential reasons, such as time, price, valuation, redemptions, inflows and emotions, including impulsive ones, expirations, and technical reasons which span both time and price. Abstract and conceptual types tend to disregard the news noise, the concrete and literal types tend to latch onto the news noise as facts. Which type are you?