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sportsguy

sportsguy
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  • Retail warning: Apparel sellers at ground zero of promotional frenzy [View news story]
    Must match this data against gift card purchases which are future sales - store sales plus gift card sales = holiday spending!
    Dec 23 11:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Warren Buffett Nailed Another Market Top? [View article]
    Does valuation timing = large macro cycle timing? correlation, but not necessarily causation? I would assume so, since the two go hand in hand. However, buffet's behaviors indicate valuation timing, which one can infer long macro cycle timing into your portfolio behaviors. . .
    Sep 20 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Underlying Cash Burn Is Worse Than It Appears [View article]
    Common retail strategy is not to let any competitor have uncontested customer base. The more important point is if there is a significant retail company consolidation, JCP and including Bon Ton, and some of the other weaker retail companies, that puts direct pressure on the mall operators' profitability and occupancy results, evan Macy's not getting the growth at the same malls. . .

    there is a macro cascading effect here, and full disclosure I am short JCP looking for a good covering pricing. .
    Aug 30 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney's Underlying Cash Burn Is Worse Than It Appears [View article]
    Interesting observation on JCP and SHL, from an interview on CNBC, is that JCP and Sears have very, very similar customer demographics. Can both existing in the same location and both be strong? If JCP goes done, its a large portion on SPG SImon Properties tenant base. .

    hmmmmm
    Aug 28 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A 1987 Crash Is Not In The Cards [View article]
    1987, of which i was short going into the day, thanks to marty Zweig, and paid for my MBA that day, had a non envent computerized negative feedback loop action, which had never happened prior to that day. The halts are designed to break that negative feedback loop action. So, the question in a computerized trading world of today? is the halt enough to break a current day non event driven negative deedback loop? if yes, is it enough to break a current day event driven negative feedback loop. That question is unanswerable, as it depends upon the severity of the event. Lets image a very large negative event, such as a nuclear bomb detonation or a very large asteroid hit of a major city. . . that question is more tenous, especially with the human reactions . .

    However, absent an event, assuming that there is a valuation point where stocks will become very cheap to buy, the market should not continue down indefinately at that point. What the market participants don't know at the moment is, " what is the fair value growth multiple without QE and all the fed programs?". . . no one knows for certain, and the best way to find out is to pull the plug and see. . . but i suspect that its not that far down that there needs to be trading halt. . . as the earnings are known, just not the growth rates. .
    Aug 23 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale [View article]
    Tesla is the perfect example of why long investing in new products is so, so much riskier and harder to see the future with more certainty than short selling. Its far, far easier to screw up any company and go bankrupt than it is to create the next cisco type, 20 year growth company. BTW I worked for a cisco competitor and watched about 10 other competitors go under. And I worked for one of the companies that had the best patents and products prior to cisco. . . and the company went under. its just too, too easy to have a product failure ahead of its time or not change with the times. just look at some of steve job's inventions. . . my only disagreement with the some of the arguments is that electricity can and is being generated without oil or natural gas. . . but the population growth vs food and water supply is by far the biggest challenge the earth's population is facing.
    Aug 16 07:20 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Macro Approach To Forecast The S&P500 [View article]
    One question, if the S&P500 earnings have an increasing proportion of foreign consolidated earnings, where is the effect of the USD and the international earnings growth/decline factors?
    this model then assumes that the world GDP and the US GDP are highly correlated, no?

    I would argue that the value of the USD does influence the embedded dependent variable SP500 international earnings. If you broke the model into domestic and intl earnings, and created an earnings model for each, I would say you have got the modeled nailed. However, intl earnings are much harder to capture. Consider setting up an historical estimate for that from the top 100 intl companies with some research. . break the international into Europe and ROW, and now you have a good change of being more accurate on the earnings forecast. . .

    BTW, I have a published article on forecasting the SP500 using time series regression in the early 90's and the model was very accurate. AND I have this same model using RATS software, but haven't kept it up to date, and yes, one can create variables for exogenous shocks in a time series model. Do some research on the financial models of Didier Sornette. Agreed though, what is difficult is forecasting the type and severity of the next black swan as its probability of being different from past black swan events is very high. . . the future is truly uncertain. . .

    sportsguy
    Aug 10 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Marijuana: Get Out Now [View article]
    Bought at 5 cents, sold at 30 cents. . . . thank you very much Todd Harrison! all done with this stock!
    May 23 03:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
    What is the portion and growth rate of Consumer companies international, non domestic revenue and operating income?

    just curious, because if the non US revenues and operating income is growing at a healthy rate, due to corporate expansion, then the analysis might just be missing the key piece of information. . .
    May 8 05:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
    Gold, like every other asset class is bought or sold with fiat currency. So, if there is inflation, transfer into gold at $1,000 and after 5 years at 10% inflation, you get $1,610 in fiat currency, Likewise, if there is deflation, transfer into gold at $1,000 and after 5 years of 1% deflation, you get $950 in fiat currency. What the gold market traders are believing is that there is more deflation coming, and that the quantitative easing is not big enough yet to overpower structural job losses to technology and outsourced manufacturing at some emerging market labor rates. Why? because corporate incentive plans don't care if you employ your customers or you employ someone else's customer, but in the end, if you employ someone else's customers, the country will turn into an island state, where the locals are on welfare, and the plutocracy has wealth from machines or someone else's customers. . .
    Apr 16 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not Pushing Stock Prices Higher [View article]
    When the fed buying bonds, money no longer has to come out of the real economy to fund the government, so money that would otherwise go to bonds out of the real economy remains in the real economy, hence increasing available money in the real economy. People who used to buy bonds, now are buying other assets, hence the fed INDIRECTLY is helping money flow into the stock market. But there is no direct purchases. There is the literal interpretation of fed actions actually buying equities versus the indirect effect interpretation of fed actions helping previous bond buyers to buy other assets instead.

    The fed understands that with this much structural unemployment, and the velocity of money being so slow, there is little risk of run away inflation. The other point is that the stock market represents world wide earnings, not just domestic earnings. The proportion is getting bigger of intl earnings versus domestic earnings. People tend to commingle the two, and those that do are more influenced by the local economy and less influenced by individual equity analysis, which means that they are missing the equity boat.
    Apr 3 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Both Optimism And Pessimism Below Average [View article]
    Current bullish less historical average -0.6
    Bearish historical average less current -1.9
    Current Neutral less historical average +2.6


    Net Change to historical average +0.1
    negative = more bearish than average,
    positive = more bullish than average

    I would say just about the average which is expected
    with negative domestic and intl macro issues weighing on psychology versus increasing earnings all in domestic and international, and rising equity prices,
    netting to the smallest of bullish percentages. . .

    of course, how one ranks neutral over and under is key, but given neutral after several years of price appreciation, would be more bullish than bearish. . .

    sportsguy
    Mar 28 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Remain Solvent Longer Than The Market Is Irrational [View article]
    Excellent! in that case, you may have a potential customer, as I have used fundamental and economic variables to successfully forecast the valuation ratios to forecast future stock market movement!

    thanks for writing and responding!

    sportsguy
    Feb 17 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Remain Solvent Longer Than The Market Is Irrational [View article]
    <<Your comment seems to represent a common misunderstanding of how the FAST Graphs tool functions. >>

    Then the articles are missing something in their description of the use of FAST graphs. . .

    That being said, I agree whole heartedly with understanding of revenue/earnings growth, and how that translates to the P/E metric, but as the first year finance students learn, you can go bankrupt with a high growth company very easily, as the balance sheet management is also an important measure of the future success.

    If FAST graphs would add TEV, total enterprise value as a function of operating income and/or operating cash flow, then you would have a very big winner in understanding company valuation fluctuations over time against both the income statement and the balance sheet.

    sportsguy
    Feb 17 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cash Hoards On The Sidelines And The Great Rotation: Old Myths Meet A New Reality [View article]
    This exact phenomina occurred with the great dutch tulip crises. the cash all ended up with the tulip farmers, but no additional cash was created, regardless of the prices of the tulips. what changed was the population's desire for purchasing tulips, behavioral finance 101.

    the major take away of the article is not about the money sidelines and stock prices, its about the liquidity preference of the potential equity buyers. But there is a small oversight in the author's article, there is a currency preference for USD or not, which would affect the amount of USD cash on the sidelines, or in the USD ledger system. Lets hold the currency preference out of the discussion.

    However, a higher liquidity preference is both a reality and a psychology outcome of the popping of an asset bubble. Behavioral finance at its best. The reason for higher liquidity preference is due to the imported deflation by US companies with the opportunity for global mfg in lower cost of living countries. By definition, this corporate decision results in a reduction of the country's aggregate income, meaning less disposable income, meaning higher preference for liquidity, meaning less willing to purchase or hold equities, within the us economy as a whole.

    The problem with understanding economic money flows is that the simple economic models are too small to account for all the variables, and all the variables shift in significance constantly based upon different decisions of the governments and business and individuals. The author is merely discussing one concept of hundreds within a specific context, but the real take away is the concept of liquidity preference for cash versus liquid assets versus illiquid assets. . . the follow-on article needs to be about the liquidity preference forecast. . . and how to change it if beneficial to the domestic economy. Otherwise, the US will follow the path of socialist europe, as that is our destination in the new technology age, as there will never be enough service jobs to employ everyone productivity.
    Feb 17 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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