Daniel K

9 Comments

    • China: Market Is Down, but Good Inflation News [view article]
      Here is an interesting related article: www.bloomberg.com/apps... Jun 11 12:38 PM
    • China: Market Is Down, but Good Inflation News [view article]
      Michael,

      How does what is going on in terms of currency valuations and inflation in the smaller Asian countries affect China's decisions? Emerging markets in general are finding their currencies under a bit of pressure as the price of oil affects their trade balances. You have suggested that China could be on the cusp of increasing the rate of revaluation upwards in order to fight inflation; can it do that if nearby countries' currencies are weakening? Vietnam of course has problems, but South Korea and Thailand and even India now seem to be fighting to keep their currencies from falling--after years of keeping them from rising. And I can't tell at all what's happening in Japan. Until recently I'd thought that the Asian currencies would rise together, in a coordinated fashion, in order to avoid a trade war.       Jun 11 12:31 PM
    • China: Lots of Oil Price Speculation [view article]
      Michael,

      You've mentioned before that China may be at the point of letting Yuan rise to a greater degree. Perhaps a relaxation of price controls is part of an overall policy of increased liberalization?       Jun 09 10:09 PM
    • In China Administrative Measures Trump Market Measures, For Now [view article]
      This blog post even comes with witty comments, couplets, and retorts. Great. Jun 09 09:49 PM
    • China Increases Minimum Reserves by Another 1% [view article]
      Michael,

      Has the price of oil affected China's current account balance? If so, to what degree? As well, I've noticed that the Yen and the Yuan have made somewhat parallel moves on the dollar in the last couple years, if you measure from the bottom of each, and that the yuan has stregthened only about 6% on the yen. Do you expect them to move in tandem vs the dollar and Euro? Could this be part of a pan-Asian reval? On another question, what sort of confidence do you have regarding Chinese economic statistics? I'm not implying that they are good or bad here--I just have no way of knowing, so I am asking. I love your blog, by the way.       Jun 09 07:41 PM
    • The Chinese Capital Outflow Paradox [view article]
      Michael,

      Another intriguing post. Look what is happening in Vietnam. For all its reserves, could the same happen in China? Why not? What's perceived as a strong currency can change quickly, as investors rush for the exits, as inflation creates a central bank reaction, which slows growth and kills leveraged players, and so on, as boom becomes bust. How is maintaining an artificially weak currency and thus printing too many yuan per dollar in the long term beneficial to the yuan? There are too many yuan; each buys less in real terms; it is a recipe for a currency crisis. Why is this incorrect?       Jun 06 03:33 PM
    • A Run on Central Banks? [view article]
      Powerful article, cleverly written. May 22 01:49 PM
    • China's Demographic Projections Have Trade Implications [view article]
      Michael, on another subject: at some pt it's expected that China will have its own real estate/banking crisis. I think you've mentioned it yourself, but in any case it won't be surprising; unruly growth usually leads to bad loans in any country. Is it possible that current conditions' appearance are luring hot money into the country, which could skip out, or seek to, in a crisis, and what would be the ramifications? May 14 06:05 PM
    • China: Latest Indexes Indicate Inflation [view article]
      Michael, I've read many of your articles before; are you teaching at Beida (spelling?)? What I don't get here is your recommendation to buy the B shares, combined with a gloomy view of inflation and Chinese banks. Most recessions in market economies in the recent past have been triggered by central bank reactions to inflation. In this case, a recession might cause many real estate loans to go sour. Why would a downturn bring an investor a positive return in 3 - 5 years? Why shouldn't an investor feel frightened of political and economic instability instead? May 10 08:02 PM
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