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Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

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Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

To surgcare:
To believe the law of supply and demand has been suspended is "IDIOCY."

Demand has gone down in the U.S., that's the facts, Jack, including diesel.

China and India and the rest are also subject to the law of supply and demand -- their prices for gasoline and diesel are going up, too.

China and to some extent India subsidize their oil consumption, which does diminish the demand destruction, but I read prices are increasing in China, too.

The continental margin is where the largest oil deposits are located (excepting the Middle East, which is a continental margin, but above sea level) -- this has just begun to be explored.

Your attempted insults fail to prove your point.

Because it is YOU that have ignored too many facts.

But I invite you to check out Oil Is Mastery to get the facts.

<a
href="oilismatery.blogspot.c.../ ">Oil Is Mastery.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

Jack,
Gotta follow up on those tar sands, since you make so much of them. The enormous quantities of hydrocarbons in the Athabasca tar sands in Canada would have required vast amounts of source rocks for their generation in the conventional discussion, when in fact no source rocks have been found.

Oil is an ultramafic mineral.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

Jack,

The tar sands? You're the one that needs organic detritus to "cook" in the crust, but there's no evidence to support the idea that the tar sand was ever deep enough to "cook." Abiotic theory doesn't require made-up words to describe make believe "processes." Rather, millions of years ago there was a massive 'outpouring' of hydrocarbons to the surface and it has been degrading ever since.

Sulphur is many times mixed in with crude oil, as in 'sour' crude oil. Sulphur is a 'solfataric' mineral that emanates from vents -- sorry, there aren't any large organic detritus sources of sulphur.

Lignite is brown coal that derives from peat bogs -- the one organic source of "coal." Its composition is materially different from anthracite coal or hard coal.

Guess, you gave up on your previous point -- yes, there is plenty of oil in igneous rocks.

The Lost Soldier Field in Wyoming has oil pools at every horizon of the geological section, from the Cambrian sandstone overlying the basement to the upper Cretaceous deposits. A flow of oil was also obtained from the basement itself. Hydrocarbon gases are not rare in igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Canadian Shield.

Potash and dolomite are examples of how wrong geology is at times. Dolomite is an ultramafic (formed in ultra-high heat and pressure) and is found in association with oil in 80% of the oil discoveries in North America, There is the Dolomites mountain chain in Italy (comprised of dolomite), yet geology has no answer because they think it's strictly a sedimentary mineral.

Potash is another mineral that geology holds as sedimentary, but evidence suggests it isn't. It's a mineral that is made of potassium carbon and oxygen -- K2CO3, there are variations -- such is the case with most minerals.

Sorry to disappoint you but coal seams are also abiotic -- 800 foot coal seam in Australia -- sorry, that isn't from organic detritus

Subsidence doesn't disprove or prove either theory.

Your response to Ghawar doesn't explain how all that organic detritus collected at one spot.

Also, 70% of the giant oil fields are located over tectonic faults.

Jack, you're breaking down "geologists say" isn't proof of anything.

Actually, Colorado "oil shale" are the sedimentary remains of lakes where heavy oil, high atomic weight oil, C215H330 leached into the lakes from oil seeps in the raparian watershed. Just like the hundreds of heavy oil seeps in California and in Iraq where oil bubbles from the ground like in the Beverly Hill Billies.

C215H330 atomic weight hydrocarbons doesn't come from marine algae.

Bitumen is also heavy atomic weight long chain hydrocarbons where the volatiles have evaporated oil to leave the solids behind.

Bitumens have been found in igneous rock in Syria with no evidence of sedimentary rocks in the area.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

To John S. Gordon:
Good ploy -- change the subject -- don't respond to my point about diamondoids and your obvious mistaken diamond comment.

But going to your new point: "oil is not found in igneous formations (otherwise all of the canadian precambrian shield would be full of oil).

Wrong, again. There is oil found in igneous formations, i.e., the White Tiger oil field off Vietnam's coast and many other examples.

And, yes, there is oil found in precambrian formations. And as far as the Canadian shield -- where do you think all that tar sand came from. Tar sand is generally a high atomic weight, long chain hydrocarbon that never was buried deep enough, according to "fossil" theory to create kerogen. "Diagenesis" is a made-up word for a made up "process" that has no scientific basis or experimental backup.

John says: "oil is found in sedimentary formations where there is a caprock to stop upward migration (otherwise you have a labrea or trinidad type tar pit)."

Correct. But the 'source' is not remnant of organic detritus.

The Saudi oil field Ghawar is the largest oil field in the world. The Ghawar complex is performing extremely well. The field has been on production since the 1950s and is steady at roughly 5 million bopd.

A 19 mile cube of oil has been produced at Ghawar. Roughly 100,000 feet high -- organic detritus supplied that?

But getting back to my point -- what about diamondoids in all oil?

And, again, no diamonds aren't formed in the crust.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

All oil has traces of diamondoids, diamonds on the molecular level. All authorities agree, daimonds are only created in the mantle under conditions of ultra-high heat and pressure. Chevron scientists isolated diamondoids, but where only able to create diamondoids using ultra-high heat and pressure.

The conclusion is straightforward enough: diamondoids, like diamonds, are created in the mantle in conjunction with oil.

John S. Gordon, you idea isn't confirmed by science -- the crust is an environment of methane creation and hydrocarbon destruction.

Certainly not diamond creation.

Try getting your science right and you might have an once of credibility.

Oil is an ultramafic mineral (formed in ultra-high heat and pressure) and obeys the rules of all mineral formation dictated by heat and pressure gradient. By the way, this also dictates oil's formation & dissolution.

Oil is a mineral -- unique in certain respects, but still a mineral.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

A lot of oil bulls on this commentary -- or is it just BULL?

starkoski: You are right, geology beats psychology -- but geology is wrong about the origin of oil. Oil is a mineral. Why do you think the oilfield services companies are riding high? If there wasn't much more oil out there to find, it wouldn't matter how high was the price of oil. Oilfield services companies are in the business to find oil.

The U.S. plateau in the '70s was when oil was regulated, some as low as $3 a barrel -- big surprise oil companies weren't looking for oil.

The continental margin is where the truly big deposits of oil are and that has just begun to be explored.

That's why day rates for deepwater, deep-drilling rigs are at record highs.

'Markets' are determined, not so much by the logic of words as by the sterner logic of facts.

Demand destruction is real -- "Peak" oil is false.

"Peak" oil is rubbish -- <a
Href=“http://oilismast... “> Oil Is Mastery.

If you want to look at the science of oil then Oil Is Mastery is the place -- your blind devotion to "Peak" oil will make you a poor fellow.

Your arogance will be your downfall.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

The article is right on. This kind of thing happens all the time.

If you are long on oil -- your greed is turning to fear.

Greed and fear -- at its most basic 'the market' is controlled by these two emotions.

There is no "peak" of oil in the foreseeable future.

Oil is a mineral, not the remnant of 'organic detritus'.

The scientific basis is clear.

And, yes, geologists have been caught up in the above psychology for decades. check out <a
Href="oilismastery.blogspot..../ "> Oil Is Mastery. And learn the truth about oil.

10 Notes on the Crude Oil Fixation

Sorry guys, you're all wrong -- okay, not all wrong, but here goes.
Long oil, your argument proves my point -- oil rose more in Dollars than Euros because the Dollar fell in relation to the Euro.
Longoil the guys you mention are a bunch of hacks, shilling for "Peak" oil. I've read their stuff -- a lot of it is outright garbage. And since you're invested in oil - long, I must presume you're a shill too, for your own interest.

Continental shelf and margin oil deposits -- they're huge and virtually untapped, in other words, "scoreboard baby!"

Sorry Flow5, while manufactured goods is a large part of the trade deficit, with the cost of oil this high, that part of the trade deficit is 400 billion, roughly half the total. And Paul Craig Roberts agrees with me -- I read his latest column.

You are right about cost and quality -- as far as it goes, but America needs a "better deal." It makes no sense to have American goods taxed twice: Once in this country and once on the dock in China, while Chinese goods are rebated their VAT for products exported to America and not taxed, here.

In other words, Chinese products imported to America aren't taxed at all. That's not just a bad deal, that's a "Raw Deal."

America can get a better deal, so China will respect us in the morning -- right now they don't -- we're cheap and easy like a Five Dollar whore.

iThinkBig, no the smucks in Washington are getting the message -- the citizens are marching with pitch forks and torches to the Capital.

That sends a "Big Message." By the time the elections roles around even Democrats will be singing a different tune on offshore drilling.

Their political skins are on the line -- that gets their attention.

So, there you have it, all the world's wisdom in a nutshell. Ha Ha.

10 Notes on the Crude Oil Fixation

To Chistletoe: Hoarding is a form of speculation. This writer believes "Peak" oil belief has penetrated the market or at least the consciousness of traders, that along with the falling Dollar -- a falling Dollar is the real reason for high oil prices, helped by the patently false idea of peak oil.

1. Showing a demonstrated capacity to increase oil production would do a lot to flatten the market.

2. showing a capacity to swing into balance both U.S. trade and budget deficits would help flatten the market.

3. Two above, and Fed tools, showing capacity to maintain the value of the Dollar on international currency markets.

4. Showing the United States, in particular, has the 'political will' to explore and produce oil from the most promising locations, wherever those locations are.

Publicize the ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling oil plays like Carioca off the coast of Brazil. These type finds are the future of oil. Offshore is the future of the oil exploration and production.

Check out Oil Is Mastery, which focusses on the ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling sector of the oil industry.

"Peak" oil is a load of Bull -- oil isn't about to "Peak". Oil Is Mastery proves it.

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

This is a conservative estimate.

The estimate does not take into consideration the fast developing ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling exploration that is taking place in the waters off Brazil's coast, not does it consider much of the deepwater oil off of West Africa's coast, not the huge potential oil fields off the America's East coast in the Carolina Trough, which Congressional Democrats won't even let the oil companies take a look at.

Also, new science is suggesting there is lots of oil, if expensive to explore and produce -- $70 a barrel is the average "lift" expense. "Abiotic Principles" have the potential to direct the world to large new oil deposits.

Check out the Oil Is Mastery website -- where Abiotic Principles -- backed up by hard science -- are focussing on ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling, where big results are already coming in off Brazil's coast.

Investing Into the End of the Hydrocarbon Age

Response to Kezorm:
There are two responses. First, the "oil window" of "fossil" theory, dictates that below 15,000 feet deep, oil will not form, or will disassocate, or "crack" because of the heat. This deposit, whatever is down there, is deeper than 15,000 feet deep, and Petrobas' statement said the "oil" is 500 degrees Fahrenheit, way over the tempertaure "fossil" theory's "oil window" states oil will "crack" into gas.

This was the basis for Mr. von Altendorf's stating he thought it would be gas. This writer asked whether von Altendorf subscribed to the "oil window" theory. His answer was not to directly respond, but, rather, to state that abiotic oil was "impossible." This writer took that to mean the "oil window" was inseperable from "fossil" theory.

There is another reason as well. Salt deposits are not strictly from evaporation, they are also a result of "solfataric" action. This is a kind of volcanic process, similar to a sulpher vent. What was interesting about von Altendorf's description of the Carioca field (how he knew, this writer does not know) included dolomite deposits, this was a reason the field was "suspect" as von Altendorf saw dolomite as a sign of low permiabilty. This mineral is also common to these solfataric "vents."

Kezorm, you sound genuine in your interest; check out the Oil Is Mastery website, at the left-hand column there are direct links. Under Eugene Coste, click Canadian Mining Institute Jounal: The Volcanic Origin of Natural Gas and petroleum (1903). This paper explains the "solfataric," volcanic process and the minerals that are expelled. Salt is one. Spindletop, the 1901, Texas gusher, Coste describes as a solfataric mineral "fumarole." The salt dome, that everybody knows about is a result of this action. Coste gives a very good explanation of the salt's presence, and documents salt as a mineral expelled fro solfataric fumaroles. The salt - solfataric association is never rebutted (they do object to his theory of the inorganic source of the oil). But also present is dolomite, actually Coste describes the oil in proximity to the dolomite. So, there is salt and dolomite at Carioca, just like at Spindletop. Dolomite is also found in the Brakken basin in North Dakota, within the oil deposits.

Actually, there is a strong association between petroleum and salt in many, if not most oil deposits.

So, the salt at the Corioca field may not be of depositional origin, but rather 'solfataric' in origin along with the dolomite.

This is entirely consistent with abiotic oil theory.

What Peak oil folks regularly claim is that hydrocarbons are not associated with volcanic action -- this is categorically false. The scientific literature is full of associations between volcanic sites and hydrocarbons.

The science is at Oil Is Mastery. The Corioca field will do a lot to prove abiotic oil, one way, or the other.

Investing Into the End of the Hydrocarbon Age

"THE ELECTRON AGE"

All well and good. This writer supports 'alternative' energy in all its myriad forms. Economics at some level is a function of man's desire -- and the desire to have dispersed energy sources is good in my book. Motivated man, is productive man. There are plenty of motivated men, inventors, who for fortune or intrinsic good, want to develop technologies for this 'Electron Age'.

More power to 'em.

But Mr. Kingsdale's turning phrase: "...[H]ow the hydrocarbon age will end...", is premature.

Petroleum -- crude oil, Texas tea, or an addict's drug, whatever you want to call it, will remain a powerful energy source for more than "ten to twenty years," Mr. Kingsdale muses about.

This writer may have missed Mr. Kingsdale's declaration for Peak oil, but the "ten to twenty years" transition statement suggests that's where he is: Peak oil.

But, that's not where the oil geology is at.

The next five years will prove whether this writer is right or wrong. The Brazil oil finds, specifically, the Carioca field will tell much whether the 'Age of Oil" will shortly pass.

Why?

Because it has been trashed, and dismissed -- chiefly because should it 'pan out' to anywhere close to the initial giddy, ill-advised "champagne popping" statement of 33 billion barrels of crude oil -- a new age will dawn -- the ultra-deep, deep-drilling offshore petroleum age. This would not be a "cheap" age. It averages $70 a barrel to produce -- but it would be stable and plentiful age of oil availability.

Why is this 'new age' trashed and dismissed?

Because it violates the principle's of the "fossil" theory.

This oil -- if it exits -- is too deep to be explained by "fossil" theory.
That's why Mathew Simmons and his acolytes have dismissed it.

But others have not. No, they are spending $750 million a pop for the rigs to get it, and Petrobas has ordered 40 of these ships. Yes, $30 billion in investment. That's part of the money Mathew Simmons is talking about.

This oil, if it exists, and it doesn't turn out to be natural gas, violates the "oil window" that "fossil" theory geologists hold dear.

That's why Alan von Altendorf, an oil geologist, predicts Carioca will be mostly, if not all, natural "gas."

But should it turn out to be mostly oil, it shows there are huge amounts of petroleum to be found. Again, expensive, yes, but available, steady, and consistent.

von Altendorf knows that there is no other explanation for this oil, if it exits, for while only one well test has been made, if it's a real play, then it must be abiotic oil. The science is there, now the observations can be made in the next five years, and, somebody, "way above my pay scale," has bet $30 billion that this is so.

Should this Carioca field 'pan out' and a trend of fields be found running down the lovely coast of Brazil, a new bosum of oil will be available for the world markets.

More power to the 'Electron Age', but don't count out the 'Age of Oil' just yet.

The website, Oil Is Mastery, is focussed on ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling investment.

See for yourself -- the science is there -- that's why Petrobas is rising in value. And the "proof is in the pudding," we will find out, one way, or the other, in the next five years.

Don't you want to get in before the investment "herd?"

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

Peak oil is pure bunk -- always was. Let's look at the U.S. in 1970 when Hubbert predicted his peak in U.S. production.

The price of oil was regulated -- some oil was mandated as cheap as three dollars a barrel. Much of it was mandated at $11 a barrel -- all this was mandated on a complicated formula of the age of the oil well and other factors -- America did not have a free market for oil until after 1980. Guess what? Production hit a plateau. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why.

Oil companies could make more money on foreign oil -- so they did.

Today, poiltics controlls oil production -- 75% of oil in the world is controlled by nationalized oil companies.

There is a long lead time from exploration to production to market for oil. Many projects are years in the making. What was happening eight to nine years ago? World oil prices dipped briefly under $10 a barrel. What do you get when it costs more to produce oil than you can sell it for? That's right, limited exploration for oil.

This plateau is the direct consequence of that period when little or no exploration for oil was being conducted.

T. Boone Pickens is a shill for higher prices -- it helps his investments, it's his preogative. But keep in mind his self-interested motives, too.

And there are dozens of shills just like him with the same self-interested motives. And, there are others, who have a political agenda for higher oil prices for a myriad of reasons.

The oil geology is not exhausted (reached its half-way point, definition of Peak).

Offshore, continental shelf oil is untapped in many parts of the world, even, here, in the U.S. the entire east coast is off-limits -- politics, again. The Carolina Trough is a virgin territory, and has excellent geological indicators of huge potential oil finds.

Today, oil is being found deeper and deeper in the geologic strata -- that's a fact. And, there are projects underway, which will give a very stong idea of just how deep oil discovery can go.

Massive investment in ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling ships is taking place. These rigs can drill 40,000 TVD . Somebody thinks there is oil down there and are willing to spend $750 million a ship to do it.

Will the oil be expensive? Yes. $70 a barrel to "lift" the oil on average. Energy will never be "cheap" again absent world-wide depression.

And, make no mistake, there are those, who bad-mouth ultra-deep drilling whether on land or sea because it goes against their deepest held beliefs. Even when the list is long, and growing longer, of successful ultra-deep drilling of over 20,000 feet deep, all over the world, not just in the Gulf of Mexico.

ExxonMobil announced this year they are concentrating on making existing assets more productive: Translation: drilling deeper into existing fields primarily in Texas, but in other places as well.

Those with a political agenda will continue their yabbering on Peak oil, no matter what -- the most radical want to de-industrialize America.

But those that are shills for higher prices, based on geology, have nothing to fear of expanded exploration and production -- there is too much pent up demand in the world, and the oil is too expensive to "lift," to sell it "cheap."

So, stop blabbering about Peak oil, before events (oil discoveries) overtake you -- and your beliefs are exposed as being false and your services worthless.

T. Boone Pickens Remains a Fervent Oil Bull

Mr. Pickens doesn't go prospecting much anymore, if he ever did. Oil could go higher, but if the U.S. provides stability for the Dollar, exploration will spur production, but there's a long lead time, so prices can't be effected for some time. Eventually prices will be effected, although, the more pent up demand for oil on the world market, the more possible prices will hold, with only gradual decline.

Also, it depends on whether Brazil's huge oil discoveries pan out, and futher ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling finds additional prospects for tapping large oil deposits.

Uncertainties? You bet, that's were the energy for the market resides.

A good blog is Oil Is Mastery.