freefall51

$25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100

Johnyups wrote:

>I think are economy has turned to an "unpresidented" situation.

You may have meant "unprecedented'. But if you alluded to the negligibly thin resume of our new president elect, that we trust this crisis to resolve, I will book it as funny.

As they say, hope is not part of the equation.

$25 Oil Could Happen Before a Return to $100

The oil price is just an indicator of how bad things are.

All this bailout money would have been better spent on energy independence other than letting banks fatten up their balance sheet or hand out funds to buy up competitors. Remind me again, what was the purpose of TARP?

When the tide turns and oil gets expensive again, we will find out that we squandered the funds needed for what really had to be done.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

JS Gordon, $ 38.00 / bbl for syncrude?

Here is my prediction. Just as the build up of LNG terminals is not designed to lower the NG prices but instead take advantage of NG prices that makes terminals feasible, just as the Canadian tar sand projects are not designed to bring the crude oil price down but instead take advantage of them, you will find at your surprise that syncrude plants will produce syncrude juuuust below the world market price of crude oil. If there is a positive difference between sales price and cost it will be pocketed by the owners of the process. And if not, we are lucky if this technology and the infrastructure that goes with it does not have to be subsidized with tax money.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

I grew up riding with my grandparents on a wagon, that was pulled by two cows. I can do it again. Time to re-learn some basic skills.

Events in Russia Could Push U.S. Toward a Clearer Energy Policy

Quick estimate what kind of sunroof it takes to power my 180 hp Explorer:

Assume 0.76 kW/hp
Sun is shining 60 deg on suncollector, efficiency following cosinus function cos (90-60) deg = cos (30 deg) = 0.866
1200 KW /m2
Sun/Power Conversion Efficiency 27 %
Inverter efficiency 75 %
Electro Motor efficiency 90 %.


Here we go

180 hp * 0.76 kW/ hp
----------------------... = 722 m2
(1.2 kW/ m2 * 0.27 * 0.75 * 0.90 * 0.866)

The sunroof is then 722 m2 * 11 ft2/ m2 ~ 7.945 ft2, just about the area of my lot at home. So, I am sitting in the dark, while my car is being fueled. This assumes the sun is shining of course.

Can we stop this please.

Events in Russia Could Push U.S. Toward a Clearer Energy Policy

I like the Chevy Volt car concept better that a pure plug-in car PHEV because it gets you mileage and independence of finding a socket (try to find a socket for your lap top on an airport). Reloading is associated with long reloading and waiting times. The plug in cable is not long and the battery is not large enough to let you drive a 300 mile radius. Flexibility, ease of operation and mileage are prime conditions for wide acceptance. I understand the Volt has a primary electro motor for driving, feeding off a battery. The battery is backed up by a combustion motor with a generator to reload the battery, if you have to. You can reload while you are driving and get at least the mileage of a Prius.
I heard rumours of 100 mpg. No, that can't be true, doesn't it? Downside again two drives necessary, a small tank for fuel and a small trunk?

Recapping My Great Calls on Oil

You never should own an airline.

Yes, Oil Prices Can Actually Go Down

I am going to install a propeller on the back of my truck that drives my car. The stronger the wind blows the faster the propeller will spin and the car will just zoom along. Or does it? May be only backwards? Oh, then I got to install the steering wheel and the headlamps on the backside of the car? Idea, anyone?

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

The excessive spending of the congress, the government having their fingers in our pockets through proposed higher taxes and non-productive but corrupt (though buying votes) new entitlements and stimulation packets supported by both aisles, Mr. Bernankes freebies to his ilk, the colossal national debt burden that will never be paid back and the incredibly weak $ will continue to drive the oil price up until we are all choking.

How is that? Please note, none of the factors mentioned are directly related to oil but they are predictable like a Swiss watch. Investment in oil is a protection against self-inflicted inflation. Well, that is trivial. Not difficult to be a bull even on a choppy day like this.

Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is

Dave,

you are cultivating the myth that offshore drilling takes 10 years to produce and you make that the only argumnent for your headline. Do you really think that PBR is booking all the deep sea rigs they can get their hands on if the first drop of oil to produce is 10 years away if it takes a couple of $ 100,000,000 to drill a dry or wet hole?

Here comes Dave and claims it is not worth it because it does not do any good. How credible is that?

Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I

Sorry about these typos in my earlier message. I am really bad reading from the screen.

Economics of Oil Futures Trading, Part I

I am confused about this article, in particular the meaning of carrying cost. If I had to make a call and lock in the price of say two years out I can reasonably assume, that the oil is not there yet. I the oil were to be delivered just in time from the well into my tank the carrying cost are zero.

Just yesterday I read something elsewhere in SA that was much more logical to me. Lets assume the spot price today is $100 per barrel and I want to lock it in for two years. I have to put up earnest money (I hear 8 % of the contract = $ 8/ barrel) to have this call option. I have to finance my downpayment for two years. I do this with my credit card on the basis of 15 %/yr. So without compounding interest this is 30% of $ 8 for two years or $ 2.40/ barrel.

If I lock in cost $ 100/ barrel, the future price shall not exceed

($100 - $2.40)/ barrel = $ 97.60/ barrel. That is called backwardation and is supposed to the normal way the market works. If we get contango the market assumes that the price of oil exceeds the present spot price.

Right or wrong?




in any tank yet. and the oil will and twere