freefall51

Will Obama Deliver on His Rhetoric?

You are too respectful.

Two Economic Triggers for Recovery

Kevinm,

you better pay attention to Jason Schwarz. He predicted oil at $ 30 when it still was $ 130 and he took a lot of flak. And I thought what a BS!

Now he looks more like a genius.

Real Unemployment Closer to 18%: Watch Those Long Positions

I share the bearish sentiment because of some very negative developments that affect my work environment, the recent motion of Lyondell for bankrupcy protection. Rock solid asset rich company that was employing a lot of shrewed people, unfortunately over-leveraged as well and they paid the price

That notwithstanding I believe the bull is not dead as long as the last max or the last min of the say S&P index is not undercut, which is not the case yet. However the market does feel skittish, not bullish.

In times of uncertainly the chartists rule. Plus at this time the market is fully determined by statistical oversold - overbought conditions on every time span, 3 min, 10 min, 60 min, 1 day and so on. Whenever such a condition is reached, the computers that launch buy or sell orders start talking to each other. lf you can anticipate what comes next you can make some money with some probability until it is over and the direction changes. Got to stay alert if you want to play.

U.S. Bleeding Jobs; Wall Street Doesn't Seem to Mind

Wall Street will mind. If something does not sound right dont believe it (cit Skilling/former Enron employee).

Beginning a Mini Bull Run; Be Prepared for Another Dip

There seems to be a pattern. But extrapolating a pattern into the future is deceptive. The past development was fueled by increasing population, technological advances and cheap energy most of the time. Limited availability of sufficient energy to fuel substantial growth- cheap or not - will just limit the growth. Peak oil does not go away and I am pessimistic about the available scale of alternative energies. We may plateau forever.

Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?

That would explain why Jim Rogers is shorting 30 year US Gov. bonds.
He may see the influx of $$$ into treasuries unwind and bet those $$$ are going into stocks starting Nov. 1? The old fox is always a step ahead.

Good insight, thanks.

The Next Bubble?

Something does not add up here. The price of gold seems to have topped out Jan 08 and it appears to gradually break down. There is still commodity unwinding going on which elevates the $ for another year or so, ie deflation. The customers are tapped out, credit cards are at the limits, the house prices down, the 401ks destroyed. Nobody is feeling rich. Lending practices will tighten no matter how much money supply there is. The christmas business is already in the tank, and jewelry is part of it. What else can you do with gold? Oh you can bury it in your backyard. In a situation like this the consumer will keep his hands on his wallet and not be willing to spend for discretionary stuff. There is no intrinsic value for gold. It is all supply and demand. There demand destruction now. Sounds familiar? If we are really in a recession/ depression gold will go all the way back to where it was in 2002, when we came out of the last recession.