Ivan the Credible

No Bailout for the Governator: California's 'Fiscal Emergency'

Mr. Ed, Jr. wrote:
"California will now print their own money (They are calling the currency IOU's). I wonder if they will put a picture of somebody on it, like the stuff the federal government is handing out."

Great idea. Why don't we vote for who. I suggest Bernie Madoff.

Just Pay Off Everyone's Mortgage

I have another suggestion: No need to get the government involved. I suggest that everyone who doesn't have a mortgage send a blank check to someone who does have a mortgage. I'm sure when it's clear that this is the solution to all our economic problems, people will be more than willing to comply!

Two Standards by Which to Judge Peter Schiff?

On his weekly radio show last week (which you can listen to on his web site) Peter Schiff said that the real collapse that he is predicting hasn't even happened yet, and the events of the last few months are just the beginning. Let's not judge him too much right now and just wait and see.

Homes Under Water: Looks Like a Long Slog for Homebuilders

"Most of us here in California have watched our values drop so low....My home has lost better than fifty percent, and no it isn't one of those 3500 square foot spec houses in some damned subdivision neither. It is a nice two story mountain house on 2 acres. At the height of the market, it was valued at 450K, now 220K which is exactly what I paid for it in 2004."

So what exactly have you "lost"?

The Bull Run Begins This Week

U.S. Stocks Slide to Worst Inauguration Day Drop in Dow Industrial History

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

Oil Strategies with MacroShares Up and Down ETFs

ERX & ERY : 3X energy bull & bear, anyone?

Gold Index Rallies for 65% Gain

"After all, if gold tops out and craters with the rest of commodities ..."

It didn't "crater" as much as other commodities. Or the US stock market. Or foreign stock markets. Or the US housing market. Or ...

Being Wrong for Five Years Makes Peter Schiff Right Now?

"Buffett's strategy is an investing one and Schiff's is a trading and timing one."

Absolutely not. Schiff's strategy is one of buying and holding dividend yielding foreign stocks, mostly in the natural resource sector (I have an account with his company). To make money in the recent stock market bubble you had to be a trader, ie. buy low and get the heck out at the top. Schiff isn't right about everything, but he is a refreshing dose of reality in a world of talking heads on TV telling you to buy-buy-buy at dow 14000 and that your house is going to make you rich, goldilocks economy, etc. Schiff has been saying for years that the US economy is seriously unbalanced and there is going to have to be a period of painful readjustment. Now the stuff is hitting the fan you have to give him credit.

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

This is good news! At Dow 14,000 Cramer was screaming "buy! buy! buy!" and it tanked. Then he called a bottom in the homebuilders, then in the financials, then in the Dow at 11,600 and they all got crushed. Now he's saying the sky is falling - so if his track record holds true then this should be the real bottom and it should be up from here, right?

Law of Supply & Demand Is Dead for Gold & Silver

"I’ll conclude this article with my theory of why this manipulative scheme was executed in the gold and silver markets, for I have not seen another analyst give any credence to this theory as of today’s date."

You might want to check out the guys at financialsense.com, and listen to their show; they talk about this.

Interview: Kevin Kerr On the Commodities Pull Back

JasonC, we are not 3-6 months into a bear market in commodities, we are 2 months into a correction in a long term bull market. If it was a burst bubble we would see huge unsold inventories, like we have unsold houses from the real estate crash. This is not the case with commodities. People are still going to consume food and energy in ever greater quantities.

Really Getting Into Coal

"There's nothing as convenient as GLD out there for investing in gold ..."
"Like their Gold Miners ETF ..."

You might want to clarify that GLD is the gold bullion ETF, whereas the GDX is the gold miners ETF.

Why $140/Barrel Crude is Unsustainable

"Despite the hand wringing about crude prices, there is plenty of evidence to suggest a top forming and prices headed in one direction --- down"

I'm sorry, I don't see much evidence in the article. World oil production has been flat for three years now, and many oil producing regions are in serious decline. New oil production if firstly going to have to make up for this decline. Even though demand might be dropping in developed nations, countries like China and India continue to have their economies grow at double digit rates, and some of their cities are registering a thousand new cars every day. Yes, it's supply and demand, but the supply is severely constrained, with no good alternatives, while demand continues to skyrocket. There may well be a short term correction in the price of oil, but the long term trend is in one direction, and it is the opposite of what the article claims. Do a search on Peak Oil.

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

How does this article jibe with this one:

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/bu...

Quote:

"It's a great global debate. What has driven oil prices to their current dizzy heights?

According to the oil producers' cartel Opec, the blame lies with speculators in the international markets. But Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, describes that view as "a myth".

He argues that the main cause is the tight balance between global supply and demand. "

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

A trillion barrels are gone and there are a trillion barrels left. This is precisely the peak oil scenario where we are half way through the oil age and now begins the period of declining production and high prices. In addition a lot of the remaining oil is in difficult to reach areas like the arctic and deep ocean, or it is the lower quality heavy sour crude (the low hanging fruit has been picked). And middle east countries are known to have overstated their oil reserves (see, for example, Matt Simmons).