Ivan the Credible

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

This is good news! At Dow 14,000 Cramer was screaming "buy! buy! buy!" and it tanked. Then he called a bottom in the homebuilders, then in the financials, then in the Dow at 11,600 and they all got crushed. Now he's saying the sky is falling - so if his track record holds true then this should be the real bottom and it should be up from here, right?

Interview: Kevin Kerr On the Commodities Pull Back

JasonC, we are not 3-6 months into a bear market in commodities, we are 2 months into a correction in a long term bull market. If it was a burst bubble we would see huge unsold inventories, like we have unsold houses from the real estate crash. This is not the case with commodities. People are still going to consume food and energy in ever greater quantities.

Why $140/Barrel Crude is Unsustainable

"Despite the hand wringing about crude prices, there is plenty of evidence to suggest a top forming and prices headed in one direction --- down"

I'm sorry, I don't see much evidence in the article. World oil production has been flat for three years now, and many oil producing regions are in serious decline. New oil production if firstly going to have to make up for this decline. Even though demand might be dropping in developed nations, countries like China and India continue to have their economies grow at double digit rates, and some of their cities are registering a thousand new cars every day. Yes, it's supply and demand, but the supply is severely constrained, with no good alternatives, while demand continues to skyrocket. There may well be a short term correction in the price of oil, but the long term trend is in one direction, and it is the opposite of what the article claims. Do a search on Peak Oil.

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

How does this article jibe with this one:

news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/bu...

Quote:

"It's a great global debate. What has driven oil prices to their current dizzy heights?

According to the oil producers' cartel Opec, the blame lies with speculators in the international markets. But Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, describes that view as "a myth".

He argues that the main cause is the tight balance between global supply and demand. "

1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble?

A trillion barrels are gone and there are a trillion barrels left. This is precisely the peak oil scenario where we are half way through the oil age and now begins the period of declining production and high prices. In addition a lot of the remaining oil is in difficult to reach areas like the arctic and deep ocean, or it is the lower quality heavy sour crude (the low hanging fruit has been picked). And middle east countries are known to have overstated their oil reserves (see, for example, Matt Simmons).

What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid!

> ... but just to discuss a very important point that I never see discussed in the mainstream media.

You should listen to Peter Schiff. He is on CNBC and Fox a lot and makes exactly the same point about the debasement of the dollar, though admittedly he is often in a minority of one and is bashed by almost everyone else.

Who's Really to Blame for Rising Oil?

>The price of oil has become inelastic, it no longer reacts to increased supply

I'm not sure that this is true. If supply did increase relative to demand the price would come down. The problem is that supply is not keeping pace with demand globally.