kelaido's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/191969/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/108994-is-china-experiencing-dollar-outflows?source=feed#comment-319858 319858
Seasonality is in favor of pushing stock prices higher. Positive technical divergences in SSEC is supporting a rally, but this will be a bear market counter-trend rally. ]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:06:44 -0500
Seasonality is in favor of pushing stock prices higher. Positive technical divergences in SSEC is supporting a rally, but this will be a bear market counter-trend rally. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108379-should-china-raise-wages?source=feed#comment-317852 317852
Most on ground level I spoke to still believe the impact of credit crisis on China will not be severe ('China does not have banking problem'), how econ growth will stay healthy ('domestic demand is growing', '7.5% is still good'), how govt spending on infrastructure shielded China from the 1997/1998 Asian Financial Crisis ('secondary and tertiary cities still need massive infra investments'. Ttrue, but that crisis pales compared to this one). This high hope may account for the negative reaction to the surprised 1% rate cut. It is beginning to sink in that maybe it IS getting worse, quickly. China is not that de-coupled anyway. Those who still believe in fairy tales should have watched how the CEO of a huge mining company proclaimed on CNBC some 6 mths ago how China and India would keep commodity prices sky high FOREVER.

It makes so much sense for China to shift its investment away from more production capacities, but to consumption? Overnight or even next 12 months? In my book, no hope. How long did Japan go through that transition? The shift maybe the only worthy idea to counter the current drastic slowdown, but can it be achieved expediently? And what happens after the crisis is filed away in history books? Who will clean up the inflation mess now that the consumers are converted habitual spenders on credit? My bet is measures to quickly induce domestic consumption will lead not to actual increase in consumption, but to increase in savings, and possibly more speculative increases in real estate prices. Old habits die hard.
It may sound preposterous but if the aim is to rejuvenate labour intensive industries against a glabal demand slowdown, just buy off their excess capacities and give the products to everyone in the country. Requiring the recipients to pre-register their wishlist will create another layer of bureaucracy and more jobs. Insisting on home delivery will create even more transportation and service jobs. A state govt in Australia is reported today to be giving away laptops to each and every high school student. China can give away laptops, shoes, clothings, whatever with slack capacities.

We are where we are because of artifically cheap credit, for far too long. Throwing more credit at it will buy us some time but will also make the next crisis even worse. The next to hit is likely hyper-inflation, so while the govts are trying their damnest to shorten this global slide in this current context, they are actually paving a solid path for another in a different context to follow, immediately after.

Should China raise the wages? I dare not say how much is too much nor how little is too little, but I dare say it is too late.]]> Sun, 30 Nov 2008 21:53:16 -0500
Most on ground level I spoke to still believe the impact of credit crisis on China will not be severe ('China does not have banking problem'), how econ growth will stay healthy ('domestic demand is growing', '7.5% is still good'), how govt spending on infrastructure shielded China from the 1997/1998 Asian Financial Crisis ('secondary and tertiary cities still need massive infra investments'. Ttrue, but that crisis pales compared to this one). This high hope may account for the negative reaction to the surprised 1% rate cut. It is beginning to sink in that maybe it IS getting worse, quickly. China is not that de-coupled anyway. Those who still believe in fairy tales should have watched how the CEO of a huge mining company proclaimed on CNBC some 6 mths ago how China and India would keep commodity prices sky high FOREVER.

It makes so much sense for China to shift its investment away from more production capacities, but to consumption? Overnight or even next 12 months? In my book, no hope. How long did Japan go through that transition? The shift maybe the only worthy idea to counter the current drastic slowdown, but can it be achieved expediently? And what happens after the crisis is filed away in history books? Who will clean up the inflation mess now that the consumers are converted habitual spenders on credit? My bet is measures to quickly induce domestic consumption will lead not to actual increase in consumption, but to increase in savings, and possibly more speculative increases in real estate prices. Old habits die hard.
It may sound preposterous but if the aim is to rejuvenate labour intensive industries against a glabal demand slowdown, just buy off their excess capacities and give the products to everyone in the country. Requiring the recipients to pre-register their wishlist will create another layer of bureaucracy and more jobs. Insisting on home delivery will create even more transportation and service jobs. A state govt in Australia is reported today to be giving away laptops to each and every high school student. China can give away laptops, shoes, clothings, whatever with slack capacities.

We are where we are because of artifically cheap credit, for far too long. Throwing more credit at it will buy us some time but will also make the next crisis even worse. The next to hit is likely hyper-inflation, so while the govts are trying their damnest to shorten this global slide in this current context, they are actually paving a solid path for another in a different context to follow, immediately after.

Should China raise the wages? I dare not say how much is too much nor how little is too little, but I dare say it is too late.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107067-china-will-rising-unemployment-cause-policy-missteps?source=feed#comment-311461 311461
Left on their own, Chinese consumers will not signifcantly or artificially spend more. Chinese like to save in the best of time, what more during periods of uncertainty? To spend more, recklessly will simply put China on the same path as the US towards credit disaster. If the Chinese govt want more local consumption to spur employment, they can just very simply buy all the slack capacity in the export industries and give the manufactured products to the citizens. No different from the US govt giving $600 to each voter (Greencard holders dont qualify), but quicker path to the end result.
Whichever path, buckle up!

]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 05:10:23 -0500
Left on their own, Chinese consumers will not signifcantly or artificially spend more. Chinese like to save in the best of time, what more during periods of uncertainty? To spend more, recklessly will simply put China on the same path as the US towards credit disaster. If the Chinese govt want more local consumption to spur employment, they can just very simply buy all the slack capacity in the export industries and give the manufactured products to the citizens. No different from the US govt giving $600 to each voter (Greencard holders dont qualify), but quicker path to the end result.
Whichever path, buckle up!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101993-china-bring-on-the-new-financial-order?source=feed#comment-292876 292876 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:26:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97695-new-rules-for-chinese-stock-market-investors?source=feed#comment-268199 268199 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:18:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96135-how-susceptible-is-china-to-the-global-crisis?source=feed#comment-258546 258546
Did you try Melatonin (not Melamine) on way back?]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:41:20 -0400
Did you try Melatonin (not Melamine) on way back?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94842-china-cpi-surprisingly-low-trade-surplus-high?source=feed#comment-252396 252396 Try Melatonin on your way back. Take one onboard according to your intended sleeping time in Beijing, say 11am EST (11pm Beijing time). Take another one around bedtime in Beijing and that should do it. For many years, I suffered very bad jetlag travelling between the US and Asia, until a colleague introduced me to melatonin. Hope it works for you too.]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:12:45 -0400 Try Melatonin on your way back. Take one onboard according to your intended sleeping time in Beijing, say 11am EST (11pm Beijing time). Take another one around bedtime in Beijing and that should do it. For many years, I suffered very bad jetlag travelling between the US and Asia, until a colleague introduced me to melatonin. Hope it works for you too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93730-china-market-breaks-below-2300?source=feed#comment-245074 245074 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:45:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92547-dog-days-are-here?source=feed#comment-238894 238894 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:25:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92051-china-s-looming-hangover?source=feed#comment-236036 236036 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:09:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91441-china-real-estate-loan-growth-may-be-slowing?source=feed#comment-236022 236022
Your timing to exit your B-shares is enviable. I am curious on your preference for B-shares instead of the ADRs listed in the US. The yield differentials between petroChina A-share and its ADR is substantial. I understand ADRs are based on H-shares, but is there much advantage to focus on B-shares?]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:50:20 -0400
Your timing to exit your B-shares is enviable. I am curious on your preference for B-shares instead of the ADRs listed in the US. The yield differentials between petroChina A-share and its ADR is substantial. I understand ADRs are based on H-shares, but is there much advantage to focus on B-shares?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91865-china-olympic-fever-and-the-market?source=feed#comment-236002 236002 Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:07:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91865-china-olympic-fever-and-the-market?source=feed#comment-235266 235266
$2 trillion is a meaningless milestone in their balance sheet.

Irrespective of the reserve holding, China can choose to stimulate its domestic consumption to spur growth, or slipping into the dreaded 'recession'. The handcuffs here is inflation. Yes China can copy the US which gave away $160 billion to its citizens to buy more LCD TVs. But why stop at $160b? The UK Telegraph reported yesterday that broad money supply in the US declined by $50 billion in July, the sharpest contraction in modern history. You can only throw so much credit at the consumers to spend, much like too much antibiotics too often will kill you.

The gain in SSEC yesterday is indeed impressive, with highest volume traded since July 10. It is a bit early to call yesterday a major turn, but holding above 2500 for rest of week will be key. The low of 2284 on Aug 19 established visibly positive divergences on SSEC's technical charts. The market is primed for a meaningful rally. Near term, this is more likely than not a bear market rally carrying the trademarks of being fast and furious. To alter the landscape, SSEC must overcome its next formidable resistance at 2950. If the latest low of 2184 is broken again, it is very easy to see more downside coming, govt intervention or not. Nasdaq gave back 90% of its gains after the Tech Bubble burst. A 90% retracement can easily send $SSEC down to 1400. Bear that in mind.]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 21:40:22 -0400
$2 trillion is a meaningless milestone in their balance sheet.

Irrespective of the reserve holding, China can choose to stimulate its domestic consumption to spur growth, or slipping into the dreaded 'recession'. The handcuffs here is inflation. Yes China can copy the US which gave away $160 billion to its citizens to buy more LCD TVs. But why stop at $160b? The UK Telegraph reported yesterday that broad money supply in the US declined by $50 billion in July, the sharpest contraction in modern history. You can only throw so much credit at the consumers to spend, much like too much antibiotics too often will kill you.

The gain in SSEC yesterday is indeed impressive, with highest volume traded since July 10. It is a bit early to call yesterday a major turn, but holding above 2500 for rest of week will be key. The low of 2284 on Aug 19 established visibly positive divergences on SSEC's technical charts. The market is primed for a meaningful rally. Near term, this is more likely than not a bear market rally carrying the trademarks of being fast and furious. To alter the landscape, SSEC must overcome its next formidable resistance at 2950. If the latest low of 2184 is broken again, it is very easy to see more downside coming, govt intervention or not. Nasdaq gave back 90% of its gains after the Tech Bubble burst. A 90% retracement can easily send $SSEC down to 1400. Bear that in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91441-china-real-estate-loan-growth-may-be-slowing?source=feed#comment-234486 234486 Who did you want to win the soccer semi-final last night? Your insight into what are defensive in China will be appreciated. US blue chips like Pfizer, Con Ed, and AT&T are paying dividends with yields of 6.4%, 5.7%, and 5.1% respectively.
Even PetroChina ADR is paying 3.5% versus 2.5% for its mainland based equiv A-shares. Huaneng Power (HNP) at 5.8%. Buying China B-shares or ADRs listed in the US will make more sense under a regime of appreciating RMB.
SSEC is doing a 'fast and furious' today. Very bullish holding above 2500. Market is grossly oversold. A meanigful bounce is not unreasonable. For months, China was deemed to have decoupled from the slowdown in the western economies. Now, market is saying the Chinese economy is indeed slowing down, decoupled or on its own. The Aussie, a strong proxy to the Chinese economy has defied gravity for many months. It too has collapsed 12% in 3 weeks, a very big move for any currency. Like SSEC, AUD is trying to base here. Once more layers of doubt are removed later to reveal more concrete evidence of global slowdown, equity, commodities, and commodity-based currencies like AUD will have more to fall. So too will SSEC. Short term, they deserve a meaningful bounce. Zhong Guo Jia You! ]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 02:33:34 -0400 Who did you want to win the soccer semi-final last night? Your insight into what are defensive in China will be appreciated. US blue chips like Pfizer, Con Ed, and AT&T are paying dividends with yields of 6.4%, 5.7%, and 5.1% respectively.
Even PetroChina ADR is paying 3.5% versus 2.5% for its mainland based equiv A-shares. Huaneng Power (HNP) at 5.8%. Buying China B-shares or ADRs listed in the US will make more sense under a regime of appreciating RMB.
SSEC is doing a 'fast and furious' today. Very bullish holding above 2500. Market is grossly oversold. A meanigful bounce is not unreasonable. For months, China was deemed to have decoupled from the slowdown in the western economies. Now, market is saying the Chinese economy is indeed slowing down, decoupled or on its own. The Aussie, a strong proxy to the Chinese economy has defied gravity for many months. It too has collapsed 12% in 3 weeks, a very big move for any currency. Like SSEC, AUD is trying to base here. Once more layers of doubt are removed later to reveal more concrete evidence of global slowdown, equity, commodities, and commodity-based currencies like AUD will have more to fall. So too will SSEC. Short term, they deserve a meaningful bounce. Zhong Guo Jia You! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91441-china-real-estate-loan-growth-may-be-slowing?source=feed#comment-233568 233568 Nasdaq took a little over 5 years to run from 710 to 5132, retraced 90% of that gain in slightly over 2 years. In all likelihood, SSEC has more downside to go. ]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:39:05 -0400 Nasdaq took a little over 5 years to run from 710 to 5132, retraced 90% of that gain in slightly over 2 years. In all likelihood, SSEC has more downside to go. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91160-the-anniversary-of-nixon-s-price-controls?source=feed#comment-231732 231732 Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:56:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90956-china-sees-strong-retail-sales-growth-weak-growth-in-industrial-production?source=feed#comment-230781 230781 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 22:29:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79011-shanghai-can-t-break-through-50-day?source=feed#comment-174799 174799 Tue, 27 May 2008 19:57:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76782-china-april-cpi-comes-in-higher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-166546 166546 Mon, 12 May 2008 19:57:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76782-china-april-cpi-comes-in-higher-than-expected?source=feed#comment-166118 166118 Mon, 12 May 2008 08:28:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76629-china-latest-indexes-indicate-inflation?source=feed#comment-165971 165971 Sun, 11 May 2008 20:27:46 -0400