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Do Equities Want to Rally?

It will be unfortunate if we don't get the final downdraft/capitulation needed to flush out the old and bring in the new in the next couple of months. If this doesn't happen, stimulus cheques will be flying off the printing presses and start moving indicators up which naturally will bring a huge bear rally and drag this process out much longer as the number improvement will only be temporary. It may be a long time yet before we get where we need to go.

One Scary Unemployment Chart

The US economic buildout since 2003 due to the vast sums of money released by the fed and the housing atm in parallel with the real/shadow bank driven housing bubble is crushing the retrenching american consumer. The subsequent economic fallout has exposed all the weak areas of the economy and has/will continue to claim victims. The consumer represents roughly 70% economy. There will be no recovery until they economy and the consumer rebalance.


On Feb 09 07:22 PM CJJ wrote:

> Hey author. I love all the people that say we should just do nothing
> and take the medicine of the downturn and then we'll surely race
> out of it much quicker than with any stimulus or bailouts. That IS
> BS.
>
> What do you portend the 6.7 billion people of the world do for a
> living. Should we just take a 25% unemployment rate and let demand
> drop because we deserve it?
>
> Nothing has happened to demand. The problem is the willingness to
> spend is what is suffering because people are afraid they are going
> to lose their jobs and all they hear on the news or read is dumb
> morons like you spreading the word that we all need to live within
> our means...(basically don't buy anything while I'm making more money
> than I know what to do with shorting the s out of any and every company).
>
>
> You're drinking urine flavored kool aid and spreading your disease
> to anyone who agrees with you.

Are Things As Bad as They Seem?

The US economic buildout since 2003 due to the vast sums of money released by the fed and the housing atm in parallel with the real/shadow bank driven housing bubble is crushing the retrenching american consumer. The subsequent economic fallout has exposed all the weak areas of the economy and has/will continue to claim victims. The consumer represents roughly 70% economy. There will be no recovery until they economy and the consumer rebalance.

Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's Interview

My guess is they are already doing just that.


On Feb 08 09:37 PM Wide Moat wrote:

> We'll get another twenty percent rally once Geithner announces that
> the Treasury is buying stocks in the market. By June?

Will Obama's Solution Finally Save the Banking Sector?

The banking sector cannot be saved. It is largely insolvent. The only way for it to get fixed is let free market forces fix it. Since thats not on, settle in for a long running series of "Zombie Banks, The 2nd Coming".

Are We in a New Bull Market Now?

Yes! And the financials will lead the charge..... over the cliff!

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

If it happens it will be just another in a long line of bear bounces. I guess "traders" care about this but I doubt any investors do.

The Obama Inauguration Rally Begins

It will be interesting to watch the tug of war between Obama rally bulls and the earnings disaster bears over the next few weeks.

Bear Market Thoughts: Looks Like Another Downturn

Response to Zentrader defense
It makes a person wonder if, in addition to running the funny money machines full tilt, uncle sam has set up skunk-works boiler room trading facility to keep the markets within a desired trading range.

'Tsunami Rally' Fast Approaching - Octagon Capital

The other thing about sunamis is that they are usually one large wave raising the water level for just enough time to strike terror (or giddy bulls to buy in a stock buying sunami) only to disappear as fast as it arrived. Enjoy it while/when it happens cause it ain't gonna last.

Will Expected Rally Be Part Bear or Bull?

Charts are but only one of the tools that should be in your toolbox. They're only as good as the history that made them, well, history. My intuition tells me that the "mother of all oversold bear market rallys" won't occur until Mr. Obama and Co. announce stimulus part II as there is absolutly nothing else in the offing but more pain & misery. Besides, based on what, besides your chart are we oversold?

Extreme Anxiety in the Anxious Index

The comparison of the % of DJIA index losses from peak to trough (1929-32 compared with today's market) is troubling. From 1929-32 DJIA loss was ~87%. Today's DJIA is only off ~42%.

Preparing for the Fall

Finally, an hard, honest look at how this financial quagmire is going to play out over the next few months. Its nice to get a breath of fresh air once in a while. Graham, I'm with you. Cash remains king!