rber

S&P 500 Price Action

"Isn't this supposed to be the worst economic crisis in 70 years? It looks like it's over already for a total of 16 months, which makes it no worse than the 1982 recession. There appears to be stabilization & improvement across all sectors"
Cetin didn't your parents ever tell you that you shouldn't believe everything you read/hear. Its true, you really shouldn't believe everything you read/hear.

Do Equities Want to Rally?

It will be unfortunate if we don't get the final downdraft/capitulation needed to flush out the old and bring in the new in the next couple of months. If this doesn't happen, stimulus cheques will be flying off the printing presses and start moving indicators up which naturally will bring a huge bear rally and drag this process out much longer as the number improvement will only be temporary. It may be a long time yet before we get where we need to go.

One Scary Unemployment Chart

The US economic buildout since 2003 due to the vast sums of money released by the fed and the housing atm in parallel with the real/shadow bank driven housing bubble is crushing the retrenching american consumer. The subsequent economic fallout has exposed all the weak areas of the economy and has/will continue to claim victims. The consumer represents roughly 70% economy. There will be no recovery until they economy and the consumer rebalance.


On Feb 09 07:22 PM CJJ wrote:

> Hey author. I love all the people that say we should just do nothing
> and take the medicine of the downturn and then we'll surely race
> out of it much quicker than with any stimulus or bailouts. That IS
> BS.
>
> What do you portend the 6.7 billion people of the world do for a
> living. Should we just take a 25% unemployment rate and let demand
> drop because we deserve it?
>
> Nothing has happened to demand. The problem is the willingness to
> spend is what is suffering because people are afraid they are going
> to lose their jobs and all they hear on the news or read is dumb
> morons like you spreading the word that we all need to live within
> our means...(basically don't buy anything while I'm making more money
> than I know what to do with shorting the s out of any and every company).
>
>
> You're drinking urine flavored kool aid and spreading your disease
> to anyone who agrees with you.

Are Things As Bad as They Seem?

The US economic buildout since 2003 due to the vast sums of money released by the fed and the housing atm in parallel with the real/shadow bank driven housing bubble is crushing the retrenching american consumer. The subsequent economic fallout has exposed all the weak areas of the economy and has/will continue to claim victims. The consumer represents roughly 70% economy. There will be no recovery until they economy and the consumer rebalance.

Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's Interview

My guess is they are already doing just that.


On Feb 08 09:37 PM Wide Moat wrote:

> We'll get another twenty percent rally once Geithner announces that
> the Treasury is buying stocks in the market. By June?

Will Obama's Solution Finally Save the Banking Sector?

The banking sector cannot be saved. It is largely insolvent. The only way for it to get fixed is let free market forces fix it. Since thats not on, settle in for a long running series of "Zombie Banks, The 2nd Coming".

Signs of the Apocalypse in Markets?

Traders continue to be busy little beavers trying to make something from nothing. In the meantime mom, pop and joe plumber's financial brain sectors are frozen by denial and confusion. Another fire (catalyst) is what is needed to get where we've gotta go and the govy stands on guard with fire extinguishers. Seems right now we have nowhere to go but, nowhere.

The Hopefully Not So Great Next Depression

Earnings, people. They are headed south. I don't know what is holding these markets up but its high time we see some real capitulation.

The (Skeptical) Macro Economic Case for Optimism

Forget the crystal ball gazing. Earnings. Just keep a tab on earnings.

Are We in a New Bull Market Now?

Yes! And the financials will lead the charge..... over the cliff!

How Bad Are Financials?

Nouriel Roubini answered this question a few days ago. The US Banking system is effectively insolvent.

Credit Crunch: How Do We Fix the Solution ?

The markets are not "free". If they were, we would be well on the way to fixing this mess. It wouldn't be pretty or politcally acceptable but truly free markets work. Government manipulated markets don't.

Will There Be an Obama Bounce?

If it happens it will be just another in a long line of bear bounces. I guess "traders" care about this but I doubt any investors do.

The Obama Inauguration Rally Begins

It will be interesting to watch the tug of war between Obama rally bulls and the earnings disaster bears over the next few weeks.

Bear Market Thoughts: Looks Like Another Downturn

Response to Zentrader defense
It makes a person wonder if, in addition to running the funny money machines full tilt, uncle sam has set up skunk-works boiler room trading facility to keep the markets within a desired trading range.