Steve Zecola

World's Biggest WiMax Bet

Why no facts, sir?

As it turns out, there is plenty of customer research that shows a large percentage of customers want anywhere, anytime broadband service - in the home, around the neighborhood and when traveling. Also, the price point for rapid adoption is well above the documented costs.

Those costs are below the cost structure of the replaced services, which taken together with the demand is a proven formula for success.

Please recognize that LTE and WiMax, while similar in technology, attack the market from totally different customer entry points. WiMax operators will be bundled-oriented from the get-go with lesser emphasis on mobility, while LTE operators compete heavily on mobile coverage.

The two camps will not compete directly for close to 10 years, given the starting points, the relative opportunitities and the incentives of the parent organizations.

But rest happy, the market is big enough for both, and LTE equipment will capture a much bigger market share than WiMax equipment.

Alvarion: Focus on the Big Picture

Alex, the Nortel release says: "We expect Comstar's WiMAX network to be the first of many that will leverage the combined strengths of Nortel and Alvarion® Ltd. [NASDAQ: ALVR] based on our recently announced strategic WiMAX agreement."

Alvarion: Focus on the Big Picture

SFC, here are some high-level numbers I posted last year:

messages.finance.yahoo...

Uncertainty and fear has driven up the discount rate since then, but not a whole lot on the base business has changed.

The currency exchange rate over the next five years deserves a separate analysis. But I'd start by saying that I don't see the Euro replacing the dollar as the currency of choice over the planning period, and ABB (anything but bush) will strengthen the dollar.

Alvarion: Focus on the Big Picture

ALVR has a great story, but it is not getting out effectively. In particular, the IR and PR functions need to be upgraded. For example, it is not enough to a press release on a contract. Management should be leaning on PR to get interviews with its executives and favorable stories (other than Alpha).

The company trades on NASDAQ, but has very limited institutional ownership in the US. Also, no name I-banks follow the stock. The company could use a VP of IR located in the US to address these issues.

Finally, companies trade on future earnings. I've created my own NPV for the company based on a five-year business plan, but haven't seen any detail analysis from the company or analysts. Absent credible information, the market is going to assume the worst for ALVR given weight of AT&T's and Verizon's voices.

The WiMax Deal Is a Disaster: How Google Got Snookered

Dear Mr. Schonfeld:

I worked on the original FCC regulations for cellular in the early 1980's and have either followed or worked in the mobile communications industry. If the industry had followed your logic, it wouldn't exist today. However, it is one of the largest, fasting growing and profitable industries in the world. It has made billionaires out of more than one person.

You neither show any understanding for WiMax technology (yes, it is mobile today - see ALVR) or customer requirements (one seamless system at home and on the road for all services on a broadband structure). You might want to see ALVL's recent press release with Digicel to get a sense of how customers react to a properly positiioned offer.

Your arguments are so far off the mark that they are not worth a point-by-point refutation.