schminkie

What Goldman Learned from a Trip to China

well over a trillion in loans so far this year. there seems to be a question of risk in many banks' loans. if the gov't tightens policy on easy loans the markeets will react badly. however if this is a major problem, easy loans with lack of due dilligence and lack of banks' capital reserves to back them up, there may be a toxic loan situation as we had. this looks like a rock and hard place situation if correct.

the government seems to be cognizant of these shortcomings and more including more loans for 'small businersses' rural population, closing inefficient unsafe and polluting mines, more.

i don't have a problem with the prc gov't. but frankly i can't find information as to where they are heading with loans stimulus programs other than 3rd parties - news - and policy staements, results unknown. anybody know where more info is?

China, Shipping and the Great Commodity Carry Trade

i like this article. it touches on parts of a situation which has been for me a puzzlement. whati want to know is what deals were cut when the pres of brazil went to peijing. a few little points...

in observing the chinese commodities purchases at bargain prices per shipping one might look at china cosco. they bought over 450 dry bulk ships last year from cosco group, their mother-ship as it were. their capacity plus underpinning of the prc gov't make it a safe bet although with caveats. they travel inland rivers, the china coast and the oceans.

drys made a bet on oil and invested in hugely expensive drilling vessels when both ship building, oil prices and drilling leases were in the 2008 stratosphere. but then things changed and that plan lost value. they are working out their debt, debt covenants, payments etc now but their debt and these decisions by management make me uncomfortable.

one of the mainstays of the chinese economy now is or at least would be producing and assembling products [using imported parts] for american companies. with that plus vast infrastructure contracts, china will be reliant on foreign economies for the foreseeable decades. therein go the commodities they are scooping up.

don't forget they are also selling or licensing extraction of commodities within china to american and other companies. also there is resistance to their buying large parts of overseas commodities companies.

if walmart starts printing money i'll worry more!

There Won't Be a Recovery

should push come to shove come to anti-government violence, the problem of having no leadership from a political party and commensurate military will bring not revolution or even rebellion but anarchy and most likely fascism. i vote for the bunker in montana surrounded by land mines.

The Obama Effect: Is Clean Energy Outperforming the Market?

a lot of cost savings is due to the lower price of lead. really a lot by ens reports.

Merrill Lynch Bonuses: A Watershed Moment

to argue economic systems, capitalism or otherwise is to miss the point. the problem is corruption not economy; moral bankruptcy and some twisted impossible form of caveat emptor. all the king's horses and men can yell at, pontificate about and ride their high horses criticizing and posturing about the wall st scoundrels; scoundrels who could care less because when the smoke clears and the shouting subsides, they'll have the money and we won't.

the cigarette industry used 30-40 years of 'studies' and commissions to delay the obvious truth, that their product is harmful. now wall st. is using similar tactics to delay the obvious, that the system did not break [passive tense] but was broken [transitive] by people intent on doing so consequences be damned.

as the great economic expert bob dylan said, ' you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.' i think maybe the chinese courts have it right this time.

Gold Fever: Still a Long Way Away

2% of retail investors? i'll need to see some facts on that not that i dispute it but if this is the basis of the thesis, well let's see why how what where.

would this include etf's? the current gold sell off / reluctance to buy at 1000.00 in india? institutional sized buyers?

buy the way [get it? arf arf arf] i'll take that 1030.00 any day rolexdaytona even though i'd only be making 66%.

now that bullion is a major story among cnbc hacks et al one thinks the profit taking is imminent. however it'll be followed by another bigger run-up as panic grows.

my advice, buy silver bullion tomorrow. and remember gold and silver are expensive and talk is cheap.

Annaly Capital To Take Fannie, Freddie's Place?

from this headline it sounds like judy weil is saying annaly is a failed enterprise such as fannie or freddie. is that the intention?

Looking for Opportunities in an Irrational Market Place

dryship has a substantial investment in ocean oil drilling rigs.

Back to the Future - Commodities Rule Again

yep. pretty odd maybe? till i see even a tiny bit of fundamentals in the ebb and flow on wall street i'll sit quietly. my coal and ore is already screwed. maybe if i get back to a 50% loss i'll sell and short.

did you notice that china is making noises about building 3 railroads and rebuilding a few earthquake torn provinces eg steel may be back?

Joy Global at the Heart of the Commodity Machine

the mining and metals industries were caught short when the 'boom' got momentum 'in the day' before the olympics. companies like arcelor-mittal, vale and posco reacted with a buying frenzy for ships, port developments, mines and buying and merging with other companies. in fact, they were still investing heavily while wall street bemoaned economic stagnation and slow downs. now, cut short in the current precipitous and rapid slow downs we see 40% and 50% cuts; closings, layoffs, cancelled or delayed capital investments not to mention defaulted shipping contracts. will they be 'blind-sided' when the still unbuilt infrastructures in asia and the bric countries get back on track? but would they need new equipment from joy and bucyrus? was that investment covered during the 'frenzy'.

The Burst Commodities Bubble

i'm short mos and look forward to some decent returns, tomorrow most likely. i'm thinking - always dangerous - that tomorrow, 10/10, will be a day of hard selling. who wants to be long going into a weekend?

Time Not for a Bailout, But for Nationalization

one thing more, why are 'we the people' being characterized as victims by gov't and media? i am sick and tired of patronizing bureaucrats. ' ...aw, you just don't understand high finance folks. now don't go thinking too much. you'll just get confused. let us experts take care of it ok? go have a beer and watch the game like good children. leave it to us'

out of this whole mess there is one thing true and proven. the experts having already failed in international proportions [again] are clueless.

Time Not for a Bailout, But for Nationalization

2 things.

there are more than 3 fixes. use the mythical 700 billion to rebuild the infrastructure issuing private sector rfp.s with gov't loan insurance [use aig since we already own it] and/or cheap loans, subsidies, funds matching programs, any way to get the capital out there; capital infusion into the population, job and industrial expansion, as needed. once growth begins it would grow geometrically. who know maybe people will have the $$ to pay mortgages and even buy some of those inventoried houses. there's a thought.

2. an economic system must work in good times and in bad times and especially in bad times. remember free market capitalism? ...duh...
let the failures fail. invest the $$ where it will grow [hey capitalism! who'd a thunk it?!] and benefit the real economy much and the virtual derivative non-productive dead in the water economy little or not at all.

How to Spend $700B and Actually Solve the Problem

paulson/bernanke characterize solutions using a specious strawman argument to manipulate debate and to narrow 'choices' to theirs or theirs. there are other choices. 'we the people' are characterized by the whole gov't. and media as helpless victims. 'we're helpless please fix it daddy [washington and wall st.] we're scared. only you experts can save america.'

one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base.

How to Spend $700B and Actually Solve the Problem

paulson/bernanke characterize solutions using a specious strawman argument to manipulate debate and to narrow 'choices' to theirs or theirs. there are other choices. 'we the people' are characterized by the whole gov't. and media as helpless victims. 'we're helpless please fix it daddy [washington and wall st.] we're scared. only you experts can save america.'

one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base.


. , etc. not cash being dumped into the rabbit hole of wall st. finance and its fellow-travelers.


all this serves to steamroll the paul and bernie plan which may not work and which may cost well over 700,000,000.00.

if the gov't is of a mind to spend let's put money to work for the people not for wall st.'s failures. make room for better finance houses etc.

rather than some form of gov't guarantees on toxic paper have gov't guaranteed loans; capital. revive in who have driven themselves to bankruptcy ; put people to work, build and repair infrastructure, reactivate industry, the service industries will grow, the tax base will grow, let the capitalist free market do its darwinian winnowingthe greed and incompetence of wall st. would be replaced in darwinian fashionand give a a leg up on acttually send rfps out for necessary work on infrastructure. what results is an economic stimulus in private sector: industry, finance and services. i'm too tired to