schminkie's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/192248/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175451-the-next-phase-of-the-crisis-is-beginning-with-an-eye-on-china?source=feed#comment-781780 781780
looks like leverage is around 10 or 13:1.

there's a movement to capitalize the peasantry and rural areas i assume to improve domestic buying power and of course help them to simply live day to day. this has been ongoing one way or another since 1948.

from here, only reading studies releases etc about the chinese recovery, it sounds like the steel/iron ore over-buy is a problem; supply with entirely too few end users, demand. this spills over into shipping, ports businesses and coal.

the prc continues to talk about closing small 'primitive' mines for coal and iron ore and for m&a in those sectors. i think they are sincere but i also think the response has been slow to negligible due to local economies' needs, simply greed among owners of these dangerous and inefficient mines and as always the sheer size of china that has historically made centralization difficult.

on the other hand the prc says that so many cars are being sold that those end users of steel do make the stockpiles at ports rational.

just because some pundits here talk about china's recovery being predominantly reliant on exports, read shipping to the usa, doesn't make it so. in fact i would not be surprised to see growing domestic markets in china and india which could ultimately supplant the u.s. market in which over 1 in 5 [so far] are unemployed or underemployed with little hope in sight, thus a shrinking pool of buyer power, from china or otherwise. in fact i can imagine local international corporations marketing to those new markets and investing in those countries in lieu of ours, the u.s., thus making ours a nation heading toward the so-called 3rd world status.
just say it is not so far fetched a scenario over many years.

pundits and experts said vietnam would never win liberation. they said that the chinese revolution would fail. they said that reorganization of chinese society, economy etc. would not occur thus making it's current economy impossible which of course it is not, as we see. most of them also foresaw no economic collapse till it happened in 2008 and then installed what i believe to be questionable means of recovery.

now i am rambling.,

i'd like to go to china and travel around to see what is actually going on. i doubt that it'd take long to come to some concrete conclusions.]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:42:42 -0500
looks like leverage is around 10 or 13:1.

there's a movement to capitalize the peasantry and rural areas i assume to improve domestic buying power and of course help them to simply live day to day. this has been ongoing one way or another since 1948.

from here, only reading studies releases etc about the chinese recovery, it sounds like the steel/iron ore over-buy is a problem; supply with entirely too few end users, demand. this spills over into shipping, ports businesses and coal.

the prc continues to talk about closing small 'primitive' mines for coal and iron ore and for m&a in those sectors. i think they are sincere but i also think the response has been slow to negligible due to local economies' needs, simply greed among owners of these dangerous and inefficient mines and as always the sheer size of china that has historically made centralization difficult.

on the other hand the prc says that so many cars are being sold that those end users of steel do make the stockpiles at ports rational.

just because some pundits here talk about china's recovery being predominantly reliant on exports, read shipping to the usa, doesn't make it so. in fact i would not be surprised to see growing domestic markets in china and india which could ultimately supplant the u.s. market in which over 1 in 5 [so far] are unemployed or underemployed with little hope in sight, thus a shrinking pool of buyer power, from china or otherwise. in fact i can imagine local international corporations marketing to those new markets and investing in those countries in lieu of ours, the u.s., thus making ours a nation heading toward the so-called 3rd world status.
just say it is not so far fetched a scenario over many years.

pundits and experts said vietnam would never win liberation. they said that the chinese revolution would fail. they said that reorganization of chinese society, economy etc. would not occur thus making it's current economy impossible which of course it is not, as we see. most of them also foresaw no economic collapse till it happened in 2008 and then installed what i believe to be questionable means of recovery.

now i am rambling.,

i'd like to go to china and travel around to see what is actually going on. i doubt that it'd take long to come to some concrete conclusions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168191-what-goldman-learned-from-a-trip-to-china?source=feed#comment-727203 727203
the government seems to be cognizant of these shortcomings and more including more loans for 'small businersses' rural population, closing inefficient unsafe and polluting mines, more.

i don't have a problem with the prc gov't. but frankly i can't find information as to where they are heading with loans stimulus programs other than 3rd parties - news - and policy staements, results unknown. anybody know where more info is?]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:26:15 -0400
the government seems to be cognizant of these shortcomings and more including more loans for 'small businersses' rural population, closing inefficient unsafe and polluting mines, more.

i don't have a problem with the prc gov't. but frankly i can't find information as to where they are heading with loans stimulus programs other than 3rd parties - news - and policy staements, results unknown. anybody know where more info is?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141571-china-shipping-and-the-great-commodity-carry-trade?source=feed#comment-535293 535293
in observing the chinese commodities purchases at bargain prices per shipping one might look at china cosco. they bought over 450 dry bulk ships last year from cosco group, their mother-ship as it were. their capacity plus underpinning of the prc gov't make it a safe bet although with caveats. they travel inland rivers, the china coast and the oceans.

drys made a bet on oil and invested in hugely expensive drilling vessels when both ship building, oil prices and drilling leases were in the 2008 stratosphere. but then things changed and that plan lost value. they are working out their debt, debt covenants, payments etc now but their debt and these decisions by management make me uncomfortable.

one of the mainstays of the chinese economy now is or at least would be producing and assembling products [using imported parts] for american companies. with that plus vast infrastructure contracts, china will be reliant on foreign economies for the foreseeable decades. therein go the commodities they are scooping up.

don't forget they are also selling or licensing extraction of commodities within china to american and other companies. also there is resistance to their buying large parts of overseas commodities companies.

if walmart starts printing money i'll worry more!]]> Sun, 07 Jun 2009 00:08:06 -0400
in observing the chinese commodities purchases at bargain prices per shipping one might look at china cosco. they bought over 450 dry bulk ships last year from cosco group, their mother-ship as it were. their capacity plus underpinning of the prc gov't make it a safe bet although with caveats. they travel inland rivers, the china coast and the oceans.

drys made a bet on oil and invested in hugely expensive drilling vessels when both ship building, oil prices and drilling leases were in the 2008 stratosphere. but then things changed and that plan lost value. they are working out their debt, debt covenants, payments etc now but their debt and these decisions by management make me uncomfortable.

one of the mainstays of the chinese economy now is or at least would be producing and assembling products [using imported parts] for american companies. with that plus vast infrastructure contracts, china will be reliant on foreign economies for the foreseeable decades. therein go the commodities they are scooping up.

don't forget they are also selling or licensing extraction of commodities within china to american and other companies. also there is resistance to their buying large parts of overseas commodities companies.

if walmart starts printing money i'll worry more!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138026-there-won-t-be-a-recovery?source=feed#comment-507637 507637 Sun, 17 May 2009 19:30:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133243-the-obama-effect-is-clean-energy-outperforming-the-market?source=feed#comment-481164 481164 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:05:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124690-merrill-lynch-bonuses-a-watershed-moment?source=feed#comment-418327 418327
the cigarette industry used 30-40 years of 'studies' and commissions to delay the obvious truth, that their product is harmful. now wall st. is using similar tactics to delay the obvious, that the system did not break [passive tense] but was broken [transitive] by people intent on doing so consequences be damned.

as the great economic expert bob dylan said, ' you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.' i think maybe the chinese courts have it right this time.




]]> Sun, 08 Mar 2009 16:13:03 -0400
the cigarette industry used 30-40 years of 'studies' and commissions to delay the obvious truth, that their product is harmful. now wall st. is using similar tactics to delay the obvious, that the system did not break [passive tense] but was broken [transitive] by people intent on doing so consequences be damned.

as the great economic expert bob dylan said, ' you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.' i think maybe the chinese courts have it right this time.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121898-gold-fever-still-a-long-way-away?source=feed#comment-399043 399043
would this include etf's? the current gold sell off / reluctance to buy at 1000.00 in india? institutional sized buyers?

buy the way [get it? arf arf arf] i'll take that 1030.00 any day rolexdaytona even though i'd only be making 66%.

now that bullion is a major story among cnbc hacks et al one thinks the profit taking is imminent. however it'll be followed by another bigger run-up as panic grows.

my advice, buy silver bullion tomorrow. and remember gold and silver are expensive and talk is cheap.]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 16:13:00 -0500
would this include etf's? the current gold sell off / reluctance to buy at 1000.00 in india? institutional sized buyers?

buy the way [get it? arf arf arf] i'll take that 1030.00 any day rolexdaytona even though i'd only be making 66%.

now that bullion is a major story among cnbc hacks et al one thinks the profit taking is imminent. however it'll be followed by another bigger run-up as panic grows.

my advice, buy silver bullion tomorrow. and remember gold and silver are expensive and talk is cheap.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120748-annaly-capital-to-take-fannie-freddie-s-place?source=feed#comment-390215 390215 Mon, 16 Feb 2009 08:08:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114172-looking-for-opportunities-in-an-irrational-market-place?source=feed#comment-352436 352436 Sun, 11 Jan 2009 12:21:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113515-back-to-the-future-commodities-rule-again?source=feed#comment-348838 348838
did you notice that china is making noises about building 3 railroads and rebuilding a few earthquake torn provinces eg steel may be back?]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:34:11 -0500
did you notice that china is making noises about building 3 railroads and rebuilding a few earthquake torn provinces eg steel may be back?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111305-joy-global-at-the-heart-of-the-commodity-machine?source=feed#comment-333324 333324 the mining and metals industries were caught short when the 'boom' got momentum 'in the day' before the olympics. companies like arcelor-mittal, vale and posco reacted with a buying frenzy for ships, port developments, mines and buying and merging with other companies. in fact, they were still investing heavily while wall street bemoaned economic stagnation and slow downs. now, cut short in the current precipitous and rapid slow downs we see 40% and 50% cuts; closings, layoffs, cancelled or delayed capital investments not to mention defaulted shipping contracts. will they be 'blind-sided' when the still unbuilt infrastructures in asia and the bric countries get back on track? but would they need new equipment from joy and bucyrus? was that investment covered during the 'frenzy'.








]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 14:15:38 -0500 the mining and metals industries were caught short when the 'boom' got momentum 'in the day' before the olympics. companies like arcelor-mittal, vale and posco reacted with a buying frenzy for ships, port developments, mines and buying and merging with other companies. in fact, they were still investing heavily while wall street bemoaned economic stagnation and slow downs. now, cut short in the current precipitous and rapid slow downs we see 40% and 50% cuts; closings, layoffs, cancelled or delayed capital investments not to mention defaulted shipping contracts. will they be 'blind-sided' when the still unbuilt infrastructures in asia and the bric countries get back on track? but would they need new equipment from joy and bucyrus? was that investment covered during the 'frenzy'.








]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98979-the-burst-commodities-bubble?source=feed#comment-278476 278476 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 00:43:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97602-time-not-for-a-bailout-but-for-nationalization?source=feed#comment-267093 267093
out of this whole mess there is one thing true and proven. the experts having already failed in international proportions [again] are clueless.


]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 19:18:27 -0400
out of this whole mess there is one thing true and proven. the experts having already failed in international proportions [again] are clueless.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97602-time-not-for-a-bailout-but-for-nationalization?source=feed#comment-267092 267092
there are more than 3 fixes. use the mythical 700 billion to rebuild the infrastructure issuing private sector rfp.s with gov't loan insurance [use aig since we already own it] and/or cheap loans, subsidies, funds matching programs, any way to get the capital out there; capital infusion into the population, job and industrial expansion, as needed. once growth begins it would grow geometrically. who know maybe people will have the $$ to pay mortgages and even buy some of those inventoried houses. there's a thought.

2. an economic system must work in good times and in bad times and especially in bad times. remember free market capitalism? ...duh...
let the failures fail. invest the $$ where it will grow [hey capitalism! who'd a thunk it?!] and benefit the real economy much and the virtual derivative non-productive dead in the water economy little or not at all.

]]> Sat, 27 Sep 2008 19:14:58 -0400
there are more than 3 fixes. use the mythical 700 billion to rebuild the infrastructure issuing private sector rfp.s with gov't loan insurance [use aig since we already own it] and/or cheap loans, subsidies, funds matching programs, any way to get the capital out there; capital infusion into the population, job and industrial expansion, as needed. once growth begins it would grow geometrically. who know maybe people will have the $$ to pay mortgages and even buy some of those inventoried houses. there's a thought.

2. an economic system must work in good times and in bad times and especially in bad times. remember free market capitalism? ...duh...
let the failures fail. invest the $$ where it will grow [hey capitalism! who'd a thunk it?!] and benefit the real economy much and the virtual derivative non-productive dead in the water economy little or not at all.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97348-how-to-spend-700b-and-actually-solve-the-problem?source=feed#comment-265755 265755
one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base. ]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:09:00 -0400
one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97348-how-to-spend-700b-and-actually-solve-the-problem?source=feed#comment-265750 265750
one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base.


. , etc. not cash being dumped into the rabbit hole of wall st. finance and its fellow-travelers.


all this serves to steamroll the paul and bernie plan which may not work and which may cost well over 700,000,000.00.

if the gov't is of a mind to spend let's put money to work for the people not for wall st.'s failures. make room for better finance houses etc.

rather than some form of gov't guarantees on toxic paper have gov't guaranteed loans; capital. revive in who have driven themselves to bankruptcy ; put people to work, build and repair infrastructure, reactivate industry, the service industries will grow, the tax base will grow, let the capitalist free market do its darwinian winnowingthe greed and incompetence of wall st. would be replaced in darwinian fashionand give a a leg up on acttually send rfps out for necessary work on infrastructure. what results is an economic stimulus in private sector: industry, finance and services. i'm too tired to ]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:07:27 -0400
one thing we do know for certain. neither the gov't nor the conventional wisdom of wall st. can save us. they cannot even save themselves. maybe we'd better go another way. subsidizing them is like rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

it is rare that the gov't. is so willing and even eager to spend huge amounts of money. perhaps that money, our money, would be better spent as capital investment in america. fyi: america includes wall st. wall st. fails to include america.

stop throwing our money down the rabbit hole. let free market capitalism work. put that capital to work building industry and jobs, reviving the bank industry and increasing the resultant tax base.


. , etc. not cash being dumped into the rabbit hole of wall st. finance and its fellow-travelers.


all this serves to steamroll the paul and bernie plan which may not work and which may cost well over 700,000,000.00.

if the gov't is of a mind to spend let's put money to work for the people not for wall st.'s failures. make room for better finance houses etc.

rather than some form of gov't guarantees on toxic paper have gov't guaranteed loans; capital. revive in who have driven themselves to bankruptcy ; put people to work, build and repair infrastructure, reactivate industry, the service industries will grow, the tax base will grow, let the capitalist free market do its darwinian winnowingthe greed and incompetence of wall st. would be replaced in darwinian fashionand give a a leg up on acttually send rfps out for necessary work on infrastructure. what results is an economic stimulus in private sector: industry, finance and services. i'm too tired to ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95261-down-with-rating-agencies-plus-lehman-for-laymen?source=feed#comment-254234 254234 Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:37:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95261-down-with-rating-agencies-plus-lehman-for-laymen?source=feed#comment-254233 254233
leh is about 79% institutionally owned. think those guys will be pissed if they lose 100%??]]> Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:35:02 -0400
leh is about 79% institutionally owned. think those guys will be pissed if they lose 100%??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94797-u-s-treasury-to-make-open-market-mbs-purchases?source=feed#comment-252274 252274 Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:21:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95083-could-lehman-s-failure-cause-a-systemic-meltdown?source=feed#comment-252272 252272
concur or not, sometimes the safety of the lehmans of the world is a priority if for no other reason than keeping it afloat keeps us all floating; the so-called big picture. it may serve and even amuse the merrills of the world to see one of its competitors die but it may not serve the efficient and profitable running of the economy. lest the other
finance-titans lose touch, basking in the cozy warmth of their schadenfreude, someone may rudely remind them that they may be next.



]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:17:03 -0400
concur or not, sometimes the safety of the lehmans of the world is a priority if for no other reason than keeping it afloat keeps us all floating; the so-called big picture. it may serve and even amuse the merrills of the world to see one of its competitors die but it may not serve the efficient and profitable running of the economy. lest the other
finance-titans lose touch, basking in the cozy warmth of their schadenfreude, someone may rudely remind them that they may be next.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94107-vale-pushes-china-for-higher-steel-prices?source=feed#comment-246886 246886 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:50:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94107-vale-pushes-china-for-higher-steel-prices?source=feed#comment-246884 246884
china has been sending a lot of cues out to miners, building a negotiation posture, like a 'woe is me' scenario. someone there has made it known that they may remove baosteel from its position as the ore contract negotiator. they didn't like their work this season. its price fixing but it seems that this is s.o.p. with miners in asia. in fact too is unhappy with their deals and claims they will negotiate separately next year and play the contracts against the spot market which is pretty typical. there're a few other things that make me see a lot of news as posturing.

actually bhp wants more per tonne and think they got stiffed this year on ore contracts having to go along with deals cut by rio tinto. the nearly double price is insufficient. and so what i see is a heavy dose of saber rattling mixed in.

by the way, all this has driven industry components into building in verticality so they just have to depend on themselves for materials. i think THAT is the real story.

here's a question. with talk of inflation, slow downs, deflation, high oil,
low nat gas etc etc rampant, why are huge companies like rio and mt buying companies like popcorn?? i guess they're pretty stupid and somehow stumbled upon ways to grow; the 'even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then' theory. maybe they didn't read the news lately? yeah real dumb they are...

]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:49:21 -0400
china has been sending a lot of cues out to miners, building a negotiation posture, like a 'woe is me' scenario. someone there has made it known that they may remove baosteel from its position as the ore contract negotiator. they didn't like their work this season. its price fixing but it seems that this is s.o.p. with miners in asia. in fact too is unhappy with their deals and claims they will negotiate separately next year and play the contracts against the spot market which is pretty typical. there're a few other things that make me see a lot of news as posturing.

actually bhp wants more per tonne and think they got stiffed this year on ore contracts having to go along with deals cut by rio tinto. the nearly double price is insufficient. and so what i see is a heavy dose of saber rattling mixed in.

by the way, all this has driven industry components into building in verticality so they just have to depend on themselves for materials. i think THAT is the real story.

here's a question. with talk of inflation, slow downs, deflation, high oil,
low nat gas etc etc rampant, why are huge companies like rio and mt buying companies like popcorn?? i guess they're pretty stupid and somehow stumbled upon ways to grow; the 'even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then' theory. maybe they didn't read the news lately? yeah real dumb they are...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93704-coal-generates-global-strength?source=feed#comment-245370 245370 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 10:22:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92030-reevaluating-coal?source=feed#comment-236377 236377 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:53:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90693-don-t-burn-that-coal-just-yet?source=feed#comment-229294 229294
i keep reading about the fall of the shares of these companies. i'm just waiting for the wheel of fortuna to circle back because it is vastly a sellers market.

long btu rio sid.]]> Wed, 13 Aug 2008 09:23:59 -0400
i keep reading about the fall of the shares of these companies. i'm just waiting for the wheel of fortuna to circle back because it is vastly a sellers market.

long btu rio sid.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90384-stronger-dollar-and-the-stock-market?source=feed#comment-228395 228395
question. how will this affect the m&a activity of foreign companies doing a lot of buying all over the world]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 01:48:38 -0400
question. how will this affect the m&a activity of foreign companies doing a lot of buying all over the world]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88839-delusions-of-debt?source=feed#comment-222220 222220
one thing. the gov't can always pay for things - like the money pit called the war in iraq - by printing money. no problemo.]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 10:42:08 -0400
one thing. the gov't can always pay for things - like the money pit called the war in iraq - by printing money. no problemo.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88836-is-this-a-recession-wrong-question?source=feed#comment-222201 222201
in vernacular terms, if, looking forward, recession means people are suffering due to the economy, one can call a recession. in technical terms one need to wait for 2 down 1/4s looking backward. in investing
i think it's always a good and profitable idea to look at the here and now and at what likely will follow.

[note: economists have a phd in lieu of millions of dollars earned by their economic acumen.]


]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 10:30:36 -0400
in vernacular terms, if, looking forward, recession means people are suffering due to the economy, one can call a recession. in technical terms one need to wait for 2 down 1/4s looking backward. in investing
i think it's always a good and profitable idea to look at the here and now and at what likely will follow.

[note: economists have a phd in lieu of millions of dollars earned by their economic acumen.]


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86590-peabody-energy-stellar-results-if-anyone-cares?source=feed#comment-217602 217602 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:08:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87194-potashcorp-ubs-analyst-cautious-despite-record-quarter?source=feed#comment-216183 216183
agriculture will roll along whether or not the smart money invests in it and where there' ag there is fertilizer. ]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 01:17:10 -0400
agriculture will roll along whether or not the smart money invests in it and where there' ag there is fertilizer. ]]>