schminkie

Looking for Opportunities in an Irrational Market Place

dryship has a substantial investment in ocean oil drilling rigs.

Reevaluating Coal

globally coal is in short supply: high demand. that would be both metallurgical and thermal coal. in asia many countries are putting high export tariffs on coal to discourage 'in-house' miners from selling abroad where prices are sky high. the shortages of thermal coal in china are nearly desperate now but i see that changing post olympics. by the way how about those swell womens' volley ball togs. anyway coal is booming and despite predicted bric slowdowns it'll continue to do so. but will the revenues and earnings justify high p/e? a great company can still be over valued by the market can't it? or maybe it's a sector swing with money flowing into one and out of another and back again.

Don't Burn That Coal Just Yet

about btu - peabody. you forgot to say that they have substantial digs in australia, thermal - heating coal - and particularly for 'steel mill coal.' they has produced disproportionate profits what with the desperate need for all coal in china etc. and the extraordinary shortage/price of the coking -steel - coal.

i keep reading about the fall of the shares of these companies. i'm just waiting for the wheel of fortuna to circle back because it is vastly a sellers market.

long btu rio sid.

The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part Two

cool stuff esp the facts on chinese weddings. these are the things that one needs to know.

wouldn't it be a better idea to buy miners who dig up cobalt than corps that use it? and don't certain major iron and coal miners come up with it almost as a by product or coincidental product 'find' in the course of work?

i still like met coal. for the time being steel has no broadly used alternative. buy dips. sells spikes. make money. don't be bitter.

per dry bulk. i keep asking appropriate parties why loading, unloading and transporting - land, sea - coal is so stuck in the past technologically. no answers yet. however the price 'warnings' mentioned by m.a. are appropriate. companies bid and are frequently happy to take what they can get as opposed to what the wall st journal says they should get. do you ever pick up the phone and talk to these guys? time is money.

ps. congrats on your grammies, m.a.

Coal Stocks: Where to From Here?

global growth is not dead. rather it is the big story of the 21st century thus far. 'players' in coal iron ore shipping steel etc are expanding and accelerating operations. ore revenues will be calculated retroactively to april first. associated revenues will likely reflect this during this quarter or the next. watching each tremor in the baltic index or the daily machinations of the nyse are good for trading. anr went up then way down then way back into the black all in one day, today. in the long run however, unless you see the building of industry, trade and infrastructure in china and india [3 billion people or so?] plus vietnam, indonesia... are going to flame out soon, hang in with these shares. is that what you think?

what i can gather is that there are complications and misinterpretations among analysts; you know, those guys working for the companies that are crashing with 10s of billions of debt. out and out lying and posturing and pissing contests seem to be pretty typical. meanwhile the heavy players are taking advantage of this growth and of the weak dollar buying companies as fast as my mother at a bergdorf goodman 2 for 1 sale.

i own anr sid rio, for examples, and will buy more on dips holding on through sector swings. watch the naysayers and then look at what's going on via objective sources. fyi. be careful about 'big news scoops' on coal. it is often old news; info i knew months ago.

Commodities Are Taken to the Woodshed - What's the Game Plan?

last i read the supplies of thermal coal were hitting rock bottom at u.s. electric power plants and the shortage of metallurgical coal for coke/steel production gave producers a strangle hold on the steel industry, sky high prices. demand is well beyond supply to a point that a 'slow down' in china would barely put a dent in the situation. minus export, the demand for fundamental substances for building
infrastructure alone will support the coal industry, iron ore industry, etc. the amelioration of weather related damage in australia and the end of ore negotiations between bhp billiton and chinese steel mills will not lessen but instead will bake in and stabilize the doubled [+/-] prices. the long term power disaster in south africa is awful yet does not deter investment by arcelor mittal et al.

for the short run i suppose dips spurts and corrections are important plays in commodities. but in the long, run even the so-called slow downs and price barriers and macro- economic concerns will bow to the strength of what is essentially an industrial revolution; an economic movement of historic [literally] proportions.

much chatter about lower exports from china. more important is the lower exports of these commodities from the likes of indonesia, vietnam and india. given the choice between selling them at record profits or retaining them [gov't policy, tariffs] to use for their own infrastructures, it seems for now that local investment rules.

personally i like dry bulk shipping, brazilian iron/steel industries and met coal miners. i am fairly giddy at the prospect of taking substantial gains and buying back in way lower.

f.y.i: in my readings [foreign press, trade papers, gov't positions and studies] i find that fear of an american slow down etc. is often lip service and that more than one of these source expresses no fear whatsoever. i think there is schadenfreude at work to wit, many nations are happy to delink from the u.s. and it's tsuris as much as is possible.

Recent World Events Are Bullish for Metals

i think your coal analysis is not really on the mark. first of all different types of coal have different functions in industry / economy and have different rates of scarcity. everything i see says that as long as steel demand persists the demand for metallurgical coal will exist and that is the scarcest coal and/or the hardest to mine, transport, etc. as long as power generation climbs coal use will climb. notice that several coal producing nations are trying to stop exports with extreme tariffs.

the quality of coal varies a lot. it seems that some of the largest unmined sources are in the powder river area. this coal is not of high quality and is costly to move, esp abroad.

i admit some things driving coal up will abate; i refer to the weather damage in australia which was severe. however the demand for coal per steel and per good quality coal for electricity, steam will maintain. demand is in fact a great deal more than supply vis a vis specific as above. large numbers of coal users including in the u.s.a. are scrambling.

i think a more interesting question is that of an agenda to unify dry bulk shipping, coal, iron ore and steel production within the same company [see SID of braqzil} this begs many interesting angles to study.

finally eskom. i have never been to s.a. reading several s.a. papers however i get the distinct impression that eskom is the victim of bureaucracy and stone-dense stupidity, shortsightedness and dismal failures in planning. to me it looks as though the chiefs of eskom did not buy coal for the future generation of power fearing looking bad given that high cost of coal would be beyond estimates and would cause a deficit and no doubt criticism from the government, threatening job security at eskom upper management. looks like while coal was rocketing into record costs these guys were in their hot tubs. just a surmise on my part but i feel like i am thinking in the right direction.

don't be surprised if the government cedes new consessions to foreign mining investors in particular. these are branches of huge multinational corps. perhaps such firms would even spend money to prop up eskom just to be able to function.