huangjin's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/19225/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173999-why-opposition-to-deficit-spending-is-growing-rapidly?source=feed#comment-765904 765904
One example, not even close to the worst: Social Security is broke, right now. The media won't cover it, but payroll taxes do not equal payments, and payments are set to grow faster than the economy for several years. Now, how do you restart the economy when you are structurally required to go deeper into debt for the next 30 years, even if you don't increase any other debt?]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:02:24 -0500
One example, not even close to the worst: Social Security is broke, right now. The media won't cover it, but payroll taxes do not equal payments, and payments are set to grow faster than the economy for several years. Now, how do you restart the economy when you are structurally required to go deeper into debt for the next 30 years, even if you don't increase any other debt?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173379-why-are-climate-change-and-deficit-reduction-considered-mutually-exclusive?source=feed#comment-761045 761045
By itself, the climate change legislation would turn a strong economy into the 1970s stagflation. Given the current state of the world, it would lead to a depression.]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:27:14 -0500
By itself, the climate change legislation would turn a strong economy into the 1970s stagflation. Given the current state of the world, it would lead to a depression.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171957-quest-for-the-droid-crowds-not-so-epic?source=feed#comment-750640 750640 Sun, 08 Nov 2009 09:32:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170771-the-intrinsic-value-of-nothing-part-2?source=feed#comment-742591 742591
Democracy is not a wise structure. The wise oppose it, and the Founding Fathers did not establish a democracy, they established a Republic, having learned well from Greek history. ]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:56:48 -0500
Democracy is not a wise structure. The wise oppose it, and the Founding Fathers did not establish a democracy, they established a Republic, having learned well from Greek history. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167751-five-etfs-for-climate-change-legislation?source=feed#comment-723527 723527 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:02:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160426-cadbury-bid-indicates-we-re-in-a-stock-bull-market?source=feed#comment-666357 666357 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 10:52:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159737-are-budget-deficits-inflationary?source=feed#comment-661585 661585
As a very simplistic example, imagine the first person to get newly printed money loves to drink red wine and starts buying up bottles and vineyards. The prices increase, and people quit their jobs to grow more grapes and make more wine, even in colder climates. Then there's demand for all the supplies, glass for bottles, etc. A big bubble in wine making causes doctors and engineers to drop out of school to make wine. In the end, the government stops printing money, prices of wine and vineyards collapses, and there are too few engineers and doctors in the economy.


On Sep 03 06:00 PM Plant the seeds wrote:

> If the real economy is shrinking and could produce more shouldn't
> this stimulate in the short run. In the long run, I agree that it
> will decrease the efficiency of the broad economy
> On Sep 03 08:54 AM huangjin wrote:]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:24:00 -0400
As a very simplistic example, imagine the first person to get newly printed money loves to drink red wine and starts buying up bottles and vineyards. The prices increase, and people quit their jobs to grow more grapes and make more wine, even in colder climates. Then there's demand for all the supplies, glass for bottles, etc. A big bubble in wine making causes doctors and engineers to drop out of school to make wine. In the end, the government stops printing money, prices of wine and vineyards collapses, and there are too few engineers and doctors in the economy.


On Sep 03 06:00 PM Plant the seeds wrote:

> If the real economy is shrinking and could produce more shouldn't
> this stimulate in the short run. In the long run, I agree that it
> will decrease the efficiency of the broad economy
> On Sep 03 08:54 AM huangjin wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159737-are-budget-deficits-inflationary?source=feed#comment-661567 661567
Hong Kong and Singapore have two of the strongest economies in the world and they have little government interference in the economy, but their governments are very strong. Law & order protects the economy. It is when the government starts taking from Peter to pay Paul, or choosing which industry should receive "help", that the distortions begin.


On Sep 03 05:13 PM Paul H. M. wrote:

> Yes, since we all know nations with no or little government have
> the worlds strongest economies?
>
> While I agree government can be very inefficient, suggesting that
> the economy would be better off without the law and order that government
> provides seems a bit off.
>
> Can anybody name a single developed nation with little government?
> All the nations with small governments are shitholes, so the government
> must be good for something, right?]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 09:11:43 -0400
Hong Kong and Singapore have two of the strongest economies in the world and they have little government interference in the economy, but their governments are very strong. Law & order protects the economy. It is when the government starts taking from Peter to pay Paul, or choosing which industry should receive "help", that the distortions begin.


On Sep 03 05:13 PM Paul H. M. wrote:

> Yes, since we all know nations with no or little government have
> the worlds strongest economies?
>
> While I agree government can be very inefficient, suggesting that
> the economy would be better off without the law and order that government
> provides seems a bit off.
>
> Can anybody name a single developed nation with little government?
> All the nations with small governments are shitholes, so the government
> must be good for something, right?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159737-are-budget-deficits-inflationary?source=feed#comment-660002 660002
This leads real assets to lose fundamental value on an economy-wide basis, and in the end there is more money chasing a smaller pool of capital goods. If the government reduced the printing to protect the currency, then there would be deflationary death spiral.

The real story is that government destroys the economy. Inflation/deflation is just the result from the initial level of money & credit and monetary policy response.]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:54:27 -0400
This leads real assets to lose fundamental value on an economy-wide basis, and in the end there is more money chasing a smaller pool of capital goods. If the government reduced the printing to protect the currency, then there would be deflationary death spiral.

The real story is that government destroys the economy. Inflation/deflation is just the result from the initial level of money & credit and monetary policy response.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158422-how-phevs-and-evs-will-sabotage-america-s-drive-for-energy-independence?source=feed#comment-647747 647747
The best solution to imported oil is the free market because the single best signal of which technology is most efficient is the price. Clearly, the Prius would crush Volt and Leaf because it costs less. A family could buy 2 Prius for the cost of 1 Volt.

Another thing to consider is gallons/100 miles. If one car gets 15 mpg, it uses 6.7 gallons to go 100 miles. If another car gets 30 mpg, it uses 3.3 gallons to go 100 miles.

With expensive technology to lift a car from 30 to 100 mpg, the drives save 2.3 gallons of gas/100 miles.

Using existing technology or CAFE standards to get the 15 mpg car up to 30 mpg, saves 3.4 gallons/100 miles.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:12:51 -0400
The best solution to imported oil is the free market because the single best signal of which technology is most efficient is the price. Clearly, the Prius would crush Volt and Leaf because it costs less. A family could buy 2 Prius for the cost of 1 Volt.

Another thing to consider is gallons/100 miles. If one car gets 15 mpg, it uses 6.7 gallons to go 100 miles. If another car gets 30 mpg, it uses 3.3 gallons to go 100 miles.

With expensive technology to lift a car from 30 to 100 mpg, the drives save 2.3 gallons of gas/100 miles.

Using existing technology or CAFE standards to get the 15 mpg car up to 30 mpg, saves 3.4 gallons/100 miles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158313-palladium-the-new-platinum?source=feed#comment-647710 647710 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:50:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157296-is-a-two-track-economy-emerging-from-the-rubble?source=feed#comment-638205 638205
When the crisis hits, people will have a choice. More democracy and a move towards total socialism/fascism, or anti-democratic moves to restrict the peoples' ability to vote themselves OPP. The former people have the votes, the latter people have the guns.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 12:25:17 -0400
When the crisis hits, people will have a choice. More democracy and a move towards total socialism/fascism, or anti-democratic moves to restrict the peoples' ability to vote themselves OPP. The former people have the votes, the latter people have the guns.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156540-load-up-on-coal-play-the-upcoming-senate-brawl-over-cap-and-trade?source=feed#comment-634511 634511
I'm interested in clean coal technologies as well, especially since their stocks haven't rebounded as much.]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 08:57:16 -0400
I'm interested in clean coal technologies as well, especially since their stocks haven't rebounded as much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155875-why-the-electric-car-mileage-debate-is-meaningless?source=feed#comment-628029 628029 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:38:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154949-chinese-investors-encouraged-to-buy-silver?source=feed#comment-623140 623140 Mon, 10 Aug 2009 10:20:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153307-uncle-buck-didn-t-rsvp?source=feed#comment-612647 612647 Mon, 03 Aug 2009 09:37:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149442-china-s-currency-flows-still-aid-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-591680 591680 Fri, 17 Jul 2009 08:38:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148526-washington-s-dilemma-this-isn-t-a-recession-it-s-a-collapse?source=feed#comment-587232 587232 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 09:22:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147659-inflation-with-gary-north-or-deflation-with-mish?source=feed#comment-579188 579188
I believe we will have deflation for an extended period, which will put increasing pressure on the financial system and bring us to the point where your scenario becomes something more than a miniscule possibility.

But ultimately, this becomes a social confidence game. In order for the currency to fail in such a manner, trust in the entire political system must collapse, and it's going to be global, since a failure of the U.S. currency system will bring down every currency system in the world by psychological factors alone. (The notion of a "Twitter" panic allowing for the synchronization of the social herd on a worldwide level is something to consider.)]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:46:43 -0400
I believe we will have deflation for an extended period, which will put increasing pressure on the financial system and bring us to the point where your scenario becomes something more than a miniscule possibility.

But ultimately, this becomes a social confidence game. In order for the currency to fail in such a manner, trust in the entire political system must collapse, and it's going to be global, since a failure of the U.S. currency system will bring down every currency system in the world by psychological factors alone. (The notion of a "Twitter" panic allowing for the synchronization of the social herd on a worldwide level is something to consider.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147614-how-long-can-the-u-s-dollar-defy-the-law-of-gravity?source=feed#comment-578875 578875 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:00:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146014-carbon-credits-an-economic-scam?source=feed#comment-568075 568075
What the CBO did was calculate the net cost to the economy. So, let's say Bernie Madoff steals $10 billion from all his victims. By the CBO's math, the net cost to the economy is zero because the money has just changed hands.

The actual cost will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,000 per family, and the millions and billions in profits will go to Wall Street, Al Gore, and other assorted carbon traders, along with other industries and groups favored in the bill. The average working stiff is about to get hosed, big time.]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:08:57 -0400
What the CBO did was calculate the net cost to the economy. So, let's say Bernie Madoff steals $10 billion from all his victims. By the CBO's math, the net cost to the economy is zero because the money has just changed hands.

The actual cost will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,000 per family, and the millions and billions in profits will go to Wall Street, Al Gore, and other assorted carbon traders, along with other industries and groups favored in the bill. The average working stiff is about to get hosed, big time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145588-why-congress-is-asking-bernanke-bogus-questions?source=feed#comment-563618 563618
Politicians are cowards and will not act unless they are assured of success. The Bernanke pinata took enough whacks to embolden one or two, I believe.]]> Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:16:01 -0400
Politicians are cowards and will not act unless they are assured of success. The Bernanke pinata took enough whacks to embolden one or two, I believe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144888-nuclear-power-going-fast?source=feed#comment-560120 560120 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 08:08:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144703-zombie-banks-or-zombie-economy?source=feed#comment-559433 559433 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:56:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143417-china-and-the-dollar-irrational-self-non-interest?source=feed#comment-548621 548621
China can follow a similar strategy. As the domestic economy grows, the surplus will naturally shrink and they will be buying fewer and fewer Treasuries. Plus, if they expect inflation, they can let Uncle Sam do the "selling" for them as their Treasuries lose value over time.]]> Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:15:46 -0400
China can follow a similar strategy. As the domestic economy grows, the surplus will naturally shrink and they will be buying fewer and fewer Treasuries. Plus, if they expect inflation, they can let Uncle Sam do the "selling" for them as their Treasuries lose value over time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142648-republicans-offer-alternative-energy-bill-heavy-on-nuclear-oil-drilling?source=feed#comment-541788 541788 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 08:10:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/142378-julian-robertson-s-genius-bonds-are-far-more-liquid-than-gold?source=feed#comment-540203 540203
I think he has the right idea though. If you really believe big inflation is coming, you'll make more going short bonds because you can lever up, whereas your gold position will be unlevered. There's less counterparty risk because you get your money up front. The question is how does he hedge his profits against systematic risk? What good are dollar profits if the dollar is depreciating?]]> Wed, 10 Jun 2009 09:00:39 -0400
I think he has the right idea though. If you really believe big inflation is coming, you'll make more going short bonds because you can lever up, whereas your gold position will be unlevered. There's less counterparty risk because you get your money up front. The question is how does he hedge his profits against systematic risk? What good are dollar profits if the dollar is depreciating?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141483-steer-clear-of-leveraged-international-etfs?source=feed#comment-533322 533322 Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:43:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140279-the-myth-of-gold-confiscation?source=feed#comment-522615 522615
Also, at the time, Roosevelt forced people to trade 1 ounce of gold for $20, at a fixed exchange. Deflation was taking place because individuals had exchanged paper money for physical gold, and that reduced the money supply. However, less than a year later, Roosevelt revalued gold. He forced people to return their gold for $20 an ounce, and then offered it back to them for $35!

Gold, silver, oil—any commodity or foreign currency stands in the way of government's ability to manipulate the money supply. Roosevelt could fool the public because trust was higher in government, and never had so great a swindle been perpetrated on the American people. But this time, it isn't deflation that's has gold bugs agitated, it's inflation. The government will use high taxes or outright bans on commodity speculation, currency speculation, stock speculation, and capital controls—anything that involves exiting the U.S. dollar. They will make it difficult for Americans to hold anything except paper dollars to prevent hyperinflation.]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 08:44:56 -0400
Also, at the time, Roosevelt forced people to trade 1 ounce of gold for $20, at a fixed exchange. Deflation was taking place because individuals had exchanged paper money for physical gold, and that reduced the money supply. However, less than a year later, Roosevelt revalued gold. He forced people to return their gold for $20 an ounce, and then offered it back to them for $35!

Gold, silver, oil—any commodity or foreign currency stands in the way of government's ability to manipulate the money supply. Roosevelt could fool the public because trust was higher in government, and never had so great a swindle been perpetrated on the American people. But this time, it isn't deflation that's has gold bugs agitated, it's inflation. The government will use high taxes or outright bans on commodity speculation, currency speculation, stock speculation, and capital controls—anything that involves exiting the U.S. dollar. They will make it difficult for Americans to hold anything except paper dollars to prevent hyperinflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140169-what-use-is-economic-history?source=feed#comment-521871 521871 Thu, 28 May 2009 16:21:21 -0400