Fish Gone Bad

The Imminent Equity Implosion

I have been thinking about how this rally will pan out. Options expiration is this Friday. Maybe FAZ can fall to $5 before this monster dies of a heart attack.

Putting the Stock Rally in Context

All the problems with the economy did not just go away because Obama and Bernanke were on TV.

This is from: www.marketoracle.co.uk... -
In his speech Geithner admitted that, "In our financial system, 40 percent of consumer lending has historically been available because people buy loans, put them together and sell them. Because this vital source of lending has frozen up, no plan will be successful unless it helps restart securitization markets for sound loans made to consumers and businesses -- large and small.”

40 percent! Think about that. Nearly half the credit pumped into the economy comes from securitization.

In other words, the banks ARE lending; it's just that Wall Street's credit-generating mechanism is kaput. That's why the fall-off in auto sales, consumer spending and foreign trade has been so dramatic, unlike anything anyone has ever seen before. Wall Street's credit model is broken.

Most of the bad paper and non-performing loans appear to be concentrated in the very largest banks. By some estimates Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan-Chase and Wells Fargo are holding two-thirds of all the toxic mortgage-backed paper.

Leveraged ETFs: Is Tracking Error Really So Troublesome?

Direxion has 16 triple leveraged ETFs:
3X Bull:
ERX - DIREXION SHS ETF TR ENERGY BULL 3X
FAS - DIREXION SHS ETF TR FINL BULL 3X
BGU - DIREXION SHS ETF TR LARGE CAP BULL
TNA - DIREXION SHS ETF TR SM CAP BULL 3X
...
3x Bear:
ERY - DIREXION SHS ETF TR ENERGY BEAR 3X
FAZ - DIREXION SHS ETF TR FINL BEAR 3X
BGZ - DIREXION SHS ETF TR LARGE CAP BEAR
TZA - DIREXION SHS ETF TR SM CAP BEAR 3X
...
You got the bull/bear turned around. You can find descriptions here: www.direxionfunds.com

List of Troubled Companies Keeps Growing

America’s malls are going to end up looking a lot different. - You left off the mall's landlord - GGP. GGP is missing payments on its massive debt.

Five Reasons Citi's Worth the Long Risk

Citi was really beaten down on Friday (@1.48). I bought it for the dead cat bounce. Unlike the US government, I can not print money if I am wrong.

Citigroup: The Death of Buy-and-Hold Investing?

I am trying to think of when Citi was possibly a good buy. I know, Friday 02/27/2009. Now that the US is really really really stepping in to help, and calling in all kinds of favors, this dog with fleas might actually get up over $5 where it will become eligible to be shorted.

I absolutely detest Citi, BofA, and AIG. Time and time again we see BofA get hammered to a new low and then rally back almost to where it was. Perhaps that might happen with Citi as well and it will rally back close to $3.00.

FDIC Troubled Bank List up to 252

You can create a bank list from thestreet.com's site.:
www.thestreet.com/scre...

Clark Jenkins
FishGoneBad.com

Bill Ackman's Bright Ideas

GGP is in a world of hurt and has missed several payments. Even buying it for a dollar is waste of money.

Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back

Thank you for the interesting article. In case anyone actually reads my posting, I would like to refute longoil's post (the first comment). You absolutely can compare apples and oranges. People do it ALL the time. The only tricky part (not impossible), about the oranges is that their value appears to be changing all the time.

Clark Jenkins
FishGoneBad.com

Are We Still in a New Bull Market?

I have absolutely no idea why you posted this unless you are trying to get a job with CNBC as one of their perma-bulls. The private sector debt of the US is 4 times the GDP and it is no longer being allowed to be rolled over. That much debt is not repayable, it can only be removed by bankruptcy. That much debt will also take a very very long time to clean up and affect everything we care about.

The banking sector got electrocuted on September 15, 2008 and it is just waiting to die. Don't believe me? Here is what Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania had to say: www.marketoracle.co.uk...

To put this date into context, this is when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

Clark Jenkins
FishGoneBad.com

What Now?

The banking sector got electrocuted on September 15, 2008 and it is just waiting to die. Don't believe me? Here is what Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania had to say: www.marketoracle.co.uk...

To put this date into context, this is when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

Clark Jenkins
FishGoneBad.com

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

It looks like I am not going to be Mr. Popular with this perma-bull crowd.

BAC is insolvent. It ate 2 really big tape worms, Merrill Lynch and Countrywide. Does anyone remember a tool named Richard Bove? He was praising BAC a week or two ago. That is the exact same Richard Bove who hyped Lehman Brothers every single day before they imploded. He is personally responsible for luring people into an unsafe investment.

For those who want a better idea of zombie banks, check out this article:
www.marketoracle.co.uk...

The 'Doo Doo 32': Receipt of the TARP

good job Reggie. I am wondering how many of the TARP'ers are out buying their own stock.

The Lending Lunacy Continues as GMAC Gives Out More Bad Loans

I enjoyed the article.

Eternitus' comment is great -"Lots of people with credit scores in the 600s want loans. Most of that group (unfortunately) is not exceptionally good at paying the loans back."

Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur

Reggie,
Thank you once again for the time and effort you put in, trying to actually help people become better investors.

The sad truth is that things are going into the toilet (seekingalpha.com/artic...). As more and more people lose their homes, they sell whatever they can. People cut back where ever they can. They sell cars, homes, liquidate their IRA's and 401K's, and even pile on credit card debt. Perhaps it is because these impending defaults are so horrific that people refuse to believe them. An environment of "stuff blowing up" is not healthy for banks, brokerages, or people's livelihoods.

Right now there is a great deal of volatility and plenty of money to be made on either side of being long or short.

Clark Jenkins
FishGoneBad.com