Fish Gone Bad

http://ww.fishgonebad.com

32 Comments

    • A Change-of-Pace Growth Strategy [view article]
      Wow. That was a lot of information. I really like Micros, they are doing everything right and yet the market is not rewarding them.

      I am thinking that money is probably best put to work in SKF right now as the financials experience reality.

      Keep up the good work.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 26 01:43 AM
    • Korean Bank Could Prove Lehman's Savior [view article]
      That will just not happen.

      Perhaps Paulson is grasping at straws along with Richard X. Bove. There are a lot of problems with Lehman. There is not any company, not ONE, that will invest in Lehman before they know the dept of their lies. Perhaps the US Treasury will be the "greater fool" and bail them out.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 26 01:17 AM
    • Lehman Buyout Rumors Flunk the Laugh Test [view article]
      Thank you for the article. My sentiments exactly.

      Who the F*CK is Richard X. Bove and why would anyone think he knows anything?       Aug 26 01:08 AM
    • Richard X. Bove on Lehman: An Assault on Reason [view article]
      Friday was a perfect storm day. Bernanke was all Hello Kitty, Lehman has a (fake) possible suitor, and Buffet was lying in public (like he always does). Now with HR 3441, the treasury has a blank check to support Fannie, Freddie and their friends.

      It might make more sense to short stocks once the administration changes in January.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 25 01:08 AM
    • Today's Action: Crude Crushes the Dollar; Financials Threaten [view article]
      Another excellent and insightful article, thank you. Keep up the good work.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 21 08:52 PM
    • Hedge Fund Manager's Notebook: Oil and Financials in Play [view article]
      1) Weekly crude (USO) inventories soared by a record 9.4 million barrels as demand destruction accelerates, knocking the price down $5 to $12.50. The world is clearly producing more crude than it is using, but there is still no margin for error on the supply side. Several big hedge funds are now targeting a move to $86 before year end.

      >Oil is currently going up. T Boone Pickens was indeed right, the bottom was around $110. Until the fear of conflict is resolved, oil should continue to increase. There is still plenty of time to buy oil stocks or the ETF: DIG, and make some money on the way up.

      6) Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) hit new lows on concerns that a Fed bailout may not come. With FNM at $4 and FRE at $3 they are now trading at the value of a perpetual option with a zero strike price and an incredibly low implied volatility. Cheap. The two together own half the mortgages sold in the US. If they do go under China and Russia will declare war on the US because they hold so much of their paper. If these two don’t go bankrupt they will generate stock returns of several hundred percent. These look like the airline stocks that I recommended two months ago that brought in an immediate fourfold return.

      >It is not a good idea to compare airlines with corrupt financials. There are certain things airlines can do, that people can not do without. The same can not be said for Fannie and Freddie. The financials were run up today before Bernanke's speech on Friday in anticipation of good news. As there is no good news, there is still little reason to own these two companies. People keep trying to predict the bottom of the financial crisis. Being ignorant of the current financial crisis does not make it go away.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 21 08:45 PM
    • Protect Your Portfolio: Here Comes the Squeeze [view article]
      I really liked this article. Thank you.

      On April 8, 2007: Bucky the cat (in the cartoon strip Get Fuzzy) said, "Ignorance doesn't make stuff not exist".

      It is truly amazing how people think that the US financial crisis has bottomed, or we are half way through it. Time to make some money.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 21 12:36 AM
    • Man in the Street: Why Not Prosecute CEOs? [view article]
      I agree completely.

      I would like to add that companies that go after whistle blowers and informed individuals (like David Einhorn), really really need to be punished for trying to stifle free speech.

      I hear over and over again how (naked) short sellers are destroying companies, but no one offers proof. The companies that complain the most, usually have the most to hide.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 20 11:55 PM
    • Don't Believe the Lies: Ride the Bank Stocks Bull [view article]
      I have a deep seeded fear of having my money in a bank that is about to fail. Check out your bank on TheStreet.com . If you have not considered diversifying where you keep your money, today is probably a good day to think about it.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 20 08:49 AM
    • The Airlines' Recent Death Defying Actions [view article]
      Two days ago, JP Morgan recommended people overweigh their portfolios with airline stocks. Today LCC sells 19 million shares plus to Lehman. Is this the old pump-and-dump?

      In July when LCC was at $2 and everyone considered it a dog-with-fleas, no one liked it. Today it is Lehman's little darling that everyone should own. A stock being talked up by a brokerage is really creepy.

      Once oil is done going down, I am afraid there will be little reason to own this group of companies. Today oil closed at $115 and is headed down as of this comment. Today T. Boone Pickens puts oil's bottom as low as $110, but not $100.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 14 09:26 PM
    • More Problems for the Ailing Financial Sector? [view article]
      My sentiments exactly.

      My only explanation of the market behavior is that the market makers had to run the stocks up to unload them. That and the McClellan Summation index has been in an uptrend lately.

      The special anti-shorting privilege disappeared today at 11:59 p.m. EDT, and is not being extended. If anyone needs to see which companies these are with pork chops tied around their necks, here they are:
      BNP Paribas BNPQF or BNPQY, Bank of America Corporation BAC, Barclays PLC BCS, Citigroup Inc. C, Credit Suisse Group CS, Daiwa Securities Group Inc. DSECY, Deutsche Bank Group AG DB, Allianz SE AZ, Goldman, Sachs Group Inc GS, Royal Bank ADS RBS, HSBC Holdings PLC ADS HBC, J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. LEH, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. MER, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. MFG, Morgan Stanley MS, UBS AG UBS, Freddie Mac FRE, and Fannie Mae FNM.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 12 10:26 PM
    • Is David Einhorn Smarter Than I Am? [view article]
      Update: Greenlight's earnings were far from stellar. I have dropped my small position in Greenlight. At today's close, my (small) portfolio moved up close to $68,000.

      To all my critics: I am not a writer, I draw cartoons. I do not even pretend to be a good writer, and I do not even pretend to draw good cartoons. In spite of my obvious failings in entertaining people when they take a break from their Myspace pages, I was just trying to point out how a cripple could beat the pants off of Einhorn in managing a portfolio.

      Now for each of my critics:
      venividivici: You are absolutely right. It will take a bit longer than anyone thought. Yet it will happen. As it will to every country around the world.
      johnhaskell: Pride comes before a fall. I was hoping to hear some insightful words from David Einhorn and make some more money. Sadly,that did not happen. Time to move on.
      fxtrader07: You are truly gifted and talented. Women want to have sex with you when they see you.
      jjason: This article is indeed poorly written. It is not misleading. I can manage a portfolio better than David Einhorn, hence the title, "Is David Einhorn Smarter Than I Am?"

      I am looking to better my life and would be more than happy pit my talent against ANYONE.

      Clark Jenkins
      Fish Gone Bad.com

       Aug 09 03:13 AM
    • 3 Investments in Global Commitment to Clean Energy [view article]
      Anyone who owns a solar company might want to take a look at RSI Silicon Products LLC (rsi-silicon.com). They will soon be producing solar grade 6N silicon at a fraction of the cost LDK makes 9N silicon. I would normally be a buyer of LDK when it gets to $20-$25, but now I will just wait and see.

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 06 10:53 PM
    • Freddie Mac Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [view article]
      What a mess. Did anyone NOT see this coming? The only bright comment I heard on CNBC today was that if Freddie's cash could hold out until the housing crisis was over, they would probably be OK. Not an inspiring thought. So what to do now? Take the $6.49 that Freddie closed at today and be grateful you have any money left, or wait for Freddie to fail, and have the government step in and give you nothing.

      Take a look at the CROX. People are still thinking that they are going to get their money back.

      I just do not see this company coming back to life any time soon. If McCain wins, he will bust Freddie and Fannie up.

      As far as the US guarantee of stock support, this will most likely be like what happened to Country Star restaurant. The stock will be de-listed and people will be able to redeem their shares for something like 1/64th of a dollar per share.

      My advice is this. Whomever sold you this stock, was not your friend. Whomever talked you out of selling this stock was not your friend.

      The housing crisis is not even close to being 50% finished. Japan's real estate bubble collapse took real estate down to 1/10 its peak price in some cases.

      Where to put your $6.49 now? Consider the other side of the Freddie/Fannie bet, and own Proshares Ultrashort Dow Financials: SKF. Or now that the price of oil is falling, own some airline stocks. Or consider owning a really nice company that pays a solid dividend like General Electric GE

      Clark Jenkins
      FishGoneBad.com       Aug 06 10:25 PM
    • Crocs: Forget the Cheese [view article]
      This was a very nice article. Thank you.

      I heard about Crocs one day on the radio. They were discussing them on some ladies investment club news report. I told my wife, if they are talking about buying Crocs on the radio, you definitely do not want to own the stock.

      I picked up a pair of them at the mall and put the garish monsters back. They appeared to be nothing more than injection molded plastic. China could reverse engineer the design in a week and have them on the market in 6 months. Even if they are not just plastic, they look like plastic.

      The sell advice is sound. If a company is not acting like it is supposed to, then something is wrong and it should be sold. You can always buy it again if things straighten out.       Aug 03 03:03 AM
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