Hedge Fund of One

VaxGen Still Looking to Return Value to Its Stockholders

The analysis seems reasonable and the proposal simple enough. However, the lawsuit appears to be much more of a concern than the conclusion of the article indicates. The lawsuit makes this stock a binary proposition--i.e., up or down on whether the lawsuit fails or succeeds. If the suit succeeds, then there is no value and the stock is worthless, if the suit fails, then the stock might be worth the $0.86 per share, with a possible kicker for the "other potential valuable assets". So, assigning a price of $0.48 or somewhere in the neighborhood of 50% to 55% of liquidation value to the shares pending the lawsuit results seems reasonable to me. Based on probabilities alone, I would not bid the price of the stock up from here. But then, biotech investors/traders are used to placing binary bets on the outcome of FDA approvals.

Also, is the paragraph starting "We may incur ...", a quote from the financial report?

Closing My Emergent BioSolutions Position

Everyone needs to have a capitulation point.

Why are you excluding ETFs from you search? Does not make sense to me that you would exclude ETFs when you say that no individual stocks seem to be able to stay consistently good for 6 months.

Also, were you not able to search for other stocks that would fit your profile while you held EBS?

Advice for Gencor: Don't Complain, Don't Explain

Verbosity and grammatical errors aside, I thought you explained yourself pretty well in both articles. The price did find some measure of support at the 100-day moving average and previous horizontal resistance/support line. Generally, when price falls off a cliff like that, it goes directly to strongest support. Unfortunately, that is usually just the start of a long process of decline as disappointed shareholders give up one by one. The next few days may offer a chance for short-sellers to re-load for another plunge below this support line. The damage will likely take a great deal of time and capital to undo. In their PR, I did not see management specifically state any specific "misrepresentations" or "rumors" that they thought they were rebutting. Management should focus on repairing the earnings problem instead of how "accelerated" the trading of stock can be.

Gencor: Growth Stock, Capitulation Opportunity

"Investors" with too large an unprotected position tend to say these things when they get trapped in a monstrous gap down like this. Much better stocks often drop excessively after excellent earnings reports with disappointing guidance. With the disappointing surprise they delivered, I would hate to think how much more punishment this deserving stock will have to endure before its price can even begin a "bottoming process" and final capitulation. With those twin pillars of infrastructure and ag, how could they not have failed to execute?