ManAboutDallas's Comments

Why a Stronger Dollar Is Not a Problem

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:19:26 -0500

You might want to include yourself in that gratuitous aspersion, then, once you've bothered to take a look at the Dollar Index from December 4, 2008 to December 18, 2008.

It dropped from an intra-session high of 87.67 on 12-4 to an intra-session low of 77.69 on 12-18. Let's see, that's 9.98 points in 10 trading days, isn't it ?

So it can't possibly drop 6 points in 15 days ( 77 to 71 ) , can it Sparky ? ( eyeroll )

On Dec 15 04:04 PM knight wrote:

> I would take that bet everyday of the week. It show how little you
> know about currency movements. Sure the dollar can go there but it
> wont do it in the next 15 days.

Why a Stronger Dollar Is Not a Problem

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:05:58 -0500

Worry about a "stronger dollar"? Oh, har, de har-har-har.

The Fed is running the Money Presses at redline RPM; the dollar-laden "Helicopter Ben" Sikorskis are lined up as far as the eye can see on the helipads at The Wizard Of Oz Memorial Heliport.

And after last week's two failed Treasury auctions, the Fed is about to become Buyer Of Last Resort, meaning more monetisation, not less.

The Fed is addicted to printing dollars the same way a heroin addict is addicted to heroin. And the only two outcomes for either are:
1. Death; or
2. Intervention

No one is going to intervene to save the Fed from itself. This leaves, inescapably, Outcome Number One. ( for the Fed, and the dollar )

Silver Remains a Compelling Buy

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 10:47:01 -0500

Sarge,
It's a given that some sort of "health care bill" is going to pass. The remaining uncertainty is to what degree it will be:
1. Unbelievably stupid;
2. Free-market defiant;
3. Counterproductive; and, finally
4 Mind-bogglingly expensive, now and into perpetuity.

Today's PPI number was the latest wake-up call that this is going to end badly.

And the only thing the Fed can do about it, sadly, is just print even more money. Raise rates? Har, de har-har-har.

This makes the US$ - as an asset class - increasingly worthless. And whom, in their right minds, wants to hold an increasingly worthless asset? Unless they're either:
1. Stupid beyond all belief; or
2. Being coerced somehow into owning and holding that asset.

Is the picture begin to crystalise? Good.

On Dec 15 09:14 AM sarge 907 wrote:

> Some intuitive feeling tells me to wait. Should this idiotic congress
> pass a health care bill, in any form, the price will skyrocket and
> I'll probably miss the boat.
>
> Hopefully the bill will fail, I hope and prey that it will, then
> the price will fall.
>
> Roll the dice, it's only money.

Exxon Mobil Ignites Depressed Natural Gas Market

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:46:17 -0500

The malaise in which natural gas has wallowed for the last year is the classic "petri dish" from which every great new bull market - in anything - is born.

The only surprising thing is that ExxonMobil realises this, and so early in the timeline. Maybe they really have gotten two brain cells to work at once, for once.

5 Reasons Gold Is Going to Rise: A Response to Nouriel Roubini

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:40:42 -0500

At least watching people such as Roubini play King Canute is great free entertainment. If only it weren't so costly in other ways.

But as the man said, "Sheep were made for shearing."

Hope all you $ bulls enjoyed your last look at .77 this morning.

Inflation Premiums at Odds with Crude Price Behavior

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:28:29 -0500

Look, it's simple really. Sooner or later, people are going to get tired of paying for a VALUABLE asset - oil - with an increasingly WORTHLESS asset - the US$.

The trip-wire will be when oil reaches $100 / bbl again, and everyone outside the United States in the position of needing to purchase oil looks at one another and goes, "What are we, stupid or something?".

Inflation Premiums at Odds with Crude Price Behavior

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:21:54 -0500

You hit it on the nail in your final sentence...
"At $80 in crude and $1200 perhaps the trends in crude and gold were a little too obvious."

.... and what else would one expect but that Mr. Market would reach over and depress the "FLUSH!" handle once more? And now, the bowl refills itself.

Lather. Shave. Rinse. Repeat.

Will 2009's Losers Become 2010's Winners?

Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:15:11 -0500

The US$ is the new Carry Trade Spear Catcher and will be into the foreseeable future until the US$ is carried out in a body bag the same way a heroin addict is.

The Fed is addicted to printing US Dollars the same way a heroin addict is addicted to heroin; neither the Fed nor the addict are going to stop until one of the following happens:

1. Death
2. Intervention

Whom, may I ask, will intervene to save the Fed from itself ? A: No one, that Point Of No Return has long since passed.

On Dec 14 09:15 AM damienhaas wrote:

> How about the dollar? It is the loser last year. Would it be a winner
> in 2010?

That Which the ECB Hath Separated, Let No Man Join Together Again

Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:34:24 -0500

The European Union is toast and so is its HandMaiden, the Euro.

The notion that so many disparate European countries who had been fighting off and on for centuries amongst themselves were suddenly going to kiss and make nice was an absurdity brought on by late 20th Century daydreamers.

The real death knell will sound when they make Tony Blair EU President. Whom better to preside over the disintegration of a FairyTaleCourt than the Court Jester, eh ?

So, once the EU vaporises and takes the Euro with it, what currency will serve the post-EU Europe, until such time as Germany can restart the Deutschemark, the French restart the Franc, and the rest of Europe restarts some form of barter system ?

Hint: It WON'T be the US$.

The Destruction of the Dollar: It's Nearly Inevitable

Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:13:51 -0500

How long do you plan on creating all that "value" when you lose money doing it, there, Sparky?

Yeah, so what if we lose money creating all that "value", we'll just make it up with VOLUME, right ? Great strategy, just ask GM and Chrysler.

Har, de har-har-har.

On Dec 10 11:42 AM Thomas Strenge wrote:

> I'm sorry that you fell into the political rhetoric trap of America's
> manufacturing decline. US manufacturing is going strong (although
> we have exited the low-productive sectors of manufacturing). Indeed,
> 2007 was the most value created ever in the history of US manufacturing.
> Indeed, about 50% of worldwide manufacturing value is created in
> the US. Yes, we do it with fewer people. That's called productivity
> and is the key to higher paying jobs and a wealthier society.

Gold Bugs Are Warned, Again

Sat, 12 Dec 2009 16:48:41 -0500

How about we laugh at you now, and laugh even harder, later? Anyone who can't use "here" and "hear" correctly in a sentence doesn't have enough working gray matter to form an opinion about anything, let alone express it.

Anyone who thinks the current gold market is in or anywhere near a "bubble" has never, ever seen or been in or even around a real bubble, nor able to recognise it for one if they had.

On Dec 11 08:51 AM Tomcat101 wrote:

> The smart money has already taken their money out of the gold bubble.
>
>
> The slightly less smart money is on CNBC pimping gold to try to get
> that last little bit of pop out of it.
>
> The dumb retail investors are still buying at the top.
>
> Here[sic] me now, believe me later.

Even Buffett Makes Mistakes

Sat, 12 Dec 2009 16:15:30 -0500

Berkshire collapses the minute Warren croaks; Apple collapses the minute Jobs croaks which, given the state of his health, is "any minute now".

It'll be great theatre, though, watching the in-fighting at both companies as those who presume the mantle is theirs busily cut one another's throats to achieve what, in the end, will be Pyrrhic Victories for the "winners" in each case.

Buffet's "bet" on BNI is simply the realisation that what little goods there will be to be transported in post-collapse America will be carried by rail, since the price of diesel will be rising inexorably because crude will be heading for $100.. $200... $300 a barrel as long as oil is priced in $'s and the US$ finishes its Swan Song. 18-wheelers will become an extinct species, and the only thing trucks will be used for any more will be end-point local delivery from the rail terminal.

Welcome to the United Banana Republic States of America. Now all that remains is to officially change the National Anthem to o/~ "Yes! We Have No Bananas, We Have No Bananas Today!" o/~

Jim Rogers: Lessons from a Legend

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:24:53 -0500

Wrong. China and Australia - with Australia being helped out by joined-at-the-Antipode... New Zealand - will be the two dominant countries of the 21st Century.

On Dec 10 10:27 AM bobbybutte wrote:

> He is smart enough to know that China an dAmerica will be the 2 dominant
> countries for this entire century and are joined at the hip

The Destruction of the Dollar: It's Nearly Inevitable

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:36:25 -0500

Aw relax, jaan, take two aspirin and sing a few choruses of "Kumbaya", you'll feel better in the morning.

On Dec 09 01:55 PM jaan wrote:

> this is too frightening

The Destruction of the Dollar: It's Nearly Inevitable

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:03:26 -0500

Oh, har, de har-har-har. Were you paying attention to the failed Treasury auction this afternoon, there, Sparky? That was the ONLY reason for the latest Roman-candle rally in the dollar. And it failed, miserably. Today marked the turning point, the point where the Fed is going to have to start being Buyer Of Last Resort for future Treasury auctions. That means the REAL monetisation has o/~ "... only just begun." o/~ ( where are The Carpenters when you really need them? ) That means the Money Presses, already running at REDLINE RPM, are going to be cranked up even FASTER.

The dollar is the New Carry Trade Spear Catcher; get used to it.

Next stop, 7 0h... n00000000000000 !

On Dec 09 01:51 PM liebe wrote:

> The dollar is going to rally for months. It's obvious.

Gold Bubble Bursting, Or Just Another Correction and Consolidation?

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:17:12 -0500

Both numbers are inevitable, but much sooner than your expectations. We'll see $2300 easily some time next year, 2010, and $6000 no later than your 2012.

Today's Treasury auction was much worse than expected, and signals the start of the REAL monetisation, because what it means is that the Fed is soon to be the Buyer Of Last Resort for future Treasury auctions, which means the Money Presses which are already at redline RPM are going to be cranked up even faster.

On Dec 09 01:09 PM paxjds wrote:

> Look for physical gold to be $2300 before the end of 2012,
> and gold to be at least $6,000 by 2020.

Gold Bubble Bursting, Or Just Another Correction and Consolidation?

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:43:02 -0500

Already begun. Gold put in a textbook-perfect $100 correction, bottoming at $1125; silver overshot its pivot point low of $17.45 by a penny.

On Dec 09 11:12 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Correction, consolidation. Gold/silver rally should begin today.

Gold Bubble Bursting, Or Just Another Correction and Consolidation?

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 10:45:58 -0500

ANYONE who thinks gold and silver are IN or even NEAR anything resembling a "bubble" clearly hasn't been paying attention to what REAL bubbles look like, e.g. dot.com, real estate, bond market.

My God, from whence cometh all these defective people?

Why I'm Rebuilding Gold and Silver Stakes

Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:42:11 -0500

The US$ is going to put on these one- or two-day Roman-candle rallies to keep the $ bulls buttered up so they're ready for the next leg-down toasting. You like your turkeys moist and flavourful, right?

The US$ is the New Carry Trade Spear Catcher, and will be into the foreseeable future.

This $ rally will top just short of 77, if it's even that lucky.

Next stop, 7... 0h, n000000000000000000000... !

On Dec 08 12:49 PM thotdoc wrote:

> It's more than fascinating that Bernanke announces yesterday that
> interests rates will not increase, and the dollar strengthens.

>
> Will someone comment on that? Really, I'd like an explanation, not
> a rant. if possible.

Why I'm Rebuilding Gold and Silver Stakes

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 10:38:42 -0500

Mark had a typo; it's AGQ.

On Dec 08 10:07 AM allywlly wrote:

> ACQ? please confirm; unable to find symbol on Yahoo

The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:49:43 -0500

Right on. The microphones didn't catch 'ole Hu whispering under his breath....

"... but don't worry, we'll be buying with both hands a couple hundred $'s lower after what I just said has spooked the Schmoos, again, for the umpteenth time, and they're all tripping over their untied shoelaces to give us their gold at giveaway prices."

And an even more muted aside...

"Why didn't we become capitalists sooner?"

On Dec 02 03:47 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> "Just this morning, Hu Xiaolian, a vice-governor at the People's
> Bank of China, called gold a bubble and implied that the central
> bank wasn't much interested in buying thousands more tonnes of bullion
> as bank reserves at current prices."
>
> He would say that, wouldn't he, if he were planning to buy.

It's Silver's Turn to Shine - Peter Grandich

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:27:52 -0500

Count on any gold-mining company operating in the United States to be nationalised and confiscated, along with gold itself, as The Ghost Of FDR returns for an encore performance.

Is Alpha Now Illegal?

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:41:14 -0500

Nonsense. The strategy is four simple words:

Buy weakness; sell strength.

And then four more:

Lather. Shave. Rinse. Repeat.

On Nov 30 01:00 PM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Somebody can achieve higher alpha, some individual, fund or group
> of funds. But there is no strategy for it.

Silver Topping Out?

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:32:15 -0500

Your only hope of achieving what you seek is if the Laws Of Human Nature are repealed. Good luck with that one.

Why stand athwart the Path Of The Market yelling "Stop!" when you can enjoy the ride by simply buying weakness, and selling strength. You're already looking at the textbook that's telling you how.

On Dec 01 04:24 PM picman wrote:

> I think if all these "experts" would chill on the deep analysis we
> might see silver blast through 20 and move toward $25. We have all
> these brokers using their chart analysis to determine resistence,
> pullback, profit-taking, blah blah blah and in the process actually
> creating the problem. Let your clients sit back and enjoy the ride
> and stop advising that : "this level" is the level to get out. So
> many of the so-called experts have been advising their clients to
> get out of silver because the time was right for profit taking. They
> did it at $15/share, then just below $16, again at $17.70 and now
> that silver has surprised all these "experts" by hitting $18.70,
> they are screaming once again that this is the top. SHUT UP already!
> You're wrong and have been wrong for several months now. Silver is
> about to surpass $20 and may even see $25 or so by spring if only
> these "experts" who are nothing of the kind would just shutup, admit
> they're wrong and let silver soar. For goodness sake, just shaaaaaaaaat
> up!

Gold, Oil Majors Revisited

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 11:38:03 -0500

The mechanism is still in its evolution stage, but actually you CAN "spend" your physical gold using sites such as GoldMoney. The obvious restraint, of course, is that your counter-party has to have a GM account, as well.

The minute someone figures out how to tie a debit card to an account such as GM or one of the similar entities, using the current ATM network, and assuring the validity of the funds, front-to-back, your rhetorical question becomes moot.

On Nov 29 09:38 AM long_on_oil wrote:

> Lets assume the crash has happened and you are holding 50 ounces
> of gold. How are you going to use that gold to pay for a tank of
> gas or a haircut? You will have to convert it to a very small denomination
> that will be accepted by the merchant. You aren't going to shave
> off 2 grams to pay for that tank of gas.
> If you have gold you better buy guns and ammo to protect yourself
> because once the word gets out you will be paying for a funeral.
>
> True gold will be oil and food, two things you can't live without.
>
> In order to restore faith and trust in the currency the government
> will have to back it with an item that is limited in supply like
> Gold. So public ownership of gold will once again be illegal and
> the government will confiscate all of it by issuing new currency
> that will be used to purchase your gold. And the whole process starts
> all over again.

Gold May Gain on Dubai Crisis

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 11:26:10 -0500

A: When "they" have acquired "enough", another "they" or "they(s)" will take their turn. This party has barely begun, and believe it or not, some of the party-goers haven't even put on their underwear, let alone their tux, let alone arrived.

You see, it's a funny thing about the perspective of time. Many of those of us who have been in and on this bull since 2001 are starting to think it's been going on "forever" now and gosh... it just HAS to be close to being "over". The reality is that it's just the aforementioned perspective of time, coupled with that all too human capacity for lacking patience.

Is it "over"?

No. It isn't. Not even warmed up, yet. The entertainment is still the second-string crowd, too. The main orchestra [read: mainstream media] is still laughing at their warm-up acts [read:letter writers and opiners on sites such as this one]

Who's the 1000 ton Mystery Buyer? We can be pretty sure it isn't the U.S.

On Nov 27 09:38 AM Screwloose wrote:

>
> The concern should
> be "what happens when they've acquired enough?"

Gold, Oil Majors Revisited

Sun, 29 Nov 2009 07:39:45 -0500

Why aren't the oil majors buying gold ? Well, Mr. Mayer, just follow those almost-invisible strings attached to the BoD and management of said oil majors, "Trace" them if you will, ( sorry, that was just too good a pun to pass up ) all the way to the PuppetMeisters pulling those strings, and you'll have your answer.

One thing I find intriguing in the current Gold Chess Game is Hong Kong's recent dis-diaspora of its gold, calling it home from the UK and into the new vault there at or near Hong Kong Airport.

Aside from now having it safely "home" I wonder if the Chinese are about to conduct a little experiment in gold-backing by pegging the Hong Kong Dollar to that now-restored gold, a sort of 21st Century Currency Laboratory, if you will. They could conduct this little experiment with the Hong Kong Dollar, watch what happens, and use it as a "stalking horse" of sorts for the Yuan.

Gold May Gain on Dubai Crisis

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:38:00 -0500

I have good news and bad news, Thomas. The good news IS the bad news, and the bad news is that there isn't going to be any economic recovery, not for a long, long, long time. In the U.S., anyway. The rest of the world is going to pretty much de-couple from the smouldering ruins of the U.S. train wreck and go steaming merrily down the track under the power of the New Engine(s) On The Block.... China and Australia.

Welcome to the United Banana Republic States of America.

On Nov 27 10:14 AM Thomas George wrote:

> I worry about sell pressure on gold in an economic recovery. Other

Yen, Gold and the Perfect Desert Storm

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 00:05:53 -0500

Alas, Ms. Piano, while the trivial answer is "yes, they can" the brutal reality is that, as you may have noticed, the Internet is the quintessential definition of asymmetric warfare, i.e. there is no effective defence against any sort of organised offence when the offence can be mounted cost-free, or nearly so.

Stopping the spammers is, to expand on your analogy, akin to trying to bail the Titanic. And the Band played on.

On Nov 27 11:40 PM annepiano wrote:

> Cannot the administrators block this idiot's spam ?

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:43:15 -0500

"... strengthening of the dollar.. "? Ah, hahahahahahahahahahaha.

The DYX could barely mange any "hang time" above 75. Some strength, there. ( eyeroll )

The minute people realised they were panicing over a lousy $60 billion owed by some quicksand trap in the desert, the panic pretty much stopped.

This isn't 2008. The "Flight To Quality" this time is going to be just about anything that doesn't have George Washington's picture on it.

On Nov 27 09:56 PM VP of Common Sense wrote:

> So, if this event leads to a significant strengthening of the dollar,
> which it appears it has, does that mean a rapid unwind of dollar
> carry trade positions? And then a decrease in US equity valuations?