ManAboutDallas

Commodities Outlook for 2010, Goldman Sachs Edition

There'll be no "delevering" of the US$ Carry Trade, only periods of "less-levering".

With the Money Presses running at redline RPM and soon to be turned up even higher as the Fed becomes Buyer Of Last Resort for the Treasury, the US$ is the new Carry Trade Spear Catcher and will be until it's carried out in a body bag.

The Fed is addicted to printing dollars in the same way a heroin addict is addicted to heroin, and the outcome is always these two:

1. Death; or
2. Intervention.

Since no one is going to intervene to save the Fed from itself, looks like Outcome Number One, doesn't it?


On Dec 18 11:09 AM GMiki1 wrote:

> Pretty conservative. Obviously we will have periods of further delevering
> of the dollar carry trade--as now--but on the whole, over the entire
> year--up for all the above. But see nat gas flying the last two days,
> so nat gas will end up well above the GS estimate.

Today in Commodities: Dollar Up, Again

You appear to be one of those poor souls who thinks the world begins at the Statue of Liberty and ends at the Golden Gate Bridge.
Sure enough, the United States is in recession and heading for worse, but the U.S.'s day in the sun is over, and the rest of the world is raring to go.

On Oct 28 11:19 PM CLH wrote:

> Commodities don't go up during a recession (depression?). Gold doesn't
> go up during deflation. These things seem simple to me.

Today in Commodities: Vindication as Markets Make Sense

Be sure you tell the Chinese that, as their economy continues to grow at near double-digit rates. I'm sure they have NO IDEA how bad it's going to be for them. ( eyeroll )


On Oct 31 02:27 AM Rokjok777 wrote:

> China demand will surprise on the downside before H2 2010. That will
> kill the AUD; and maybe alot more things too

Today in Commodities: Vindication as Markets Make Sense

The double bottom at $16.13 today put the fix in for silver. All kinds of great butter-the-Chumps setups in the works. Next week the plug gets pulled on all of them. Aussie looks ready to scream for Parity, and it'll drag Kiwi along whether it wants to go, or not.

Today in Commodities: Utilizing Leverage

Same reason snails are tastier when you call 'em "escargot".


On Sep 26 03:29 PM Rick S. wrote:

> Is there any reason why we have to "utilize" leverage? Can't we just
> "use" it?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The rally has one more upside target, using the Dow as proxy. That target is DJIA 10,344 which is the 50% Fibo retracement of the Oct 2007 top to the Mar 2009 bottom.

A nice two-week, 700-point Dow rally into mid-October will get the Chumps nice and buttered for the Toasting-to-Three-Thou...

Last year was just the warm-up act, boys and girls.

Today in Commodities: The Almighty Buck

If it looks like a duck, and it walks like a duck, and it talks like a duck.... it must be Yogi Berra, doing an AFLAC commercial.


On Sep 24 05:39 PM woodennickels wrote:

> Matthew "Art Cashin" Bradbard....
>
> just remember... cash... is just as good as money

Today in Commodities: The Almighty Buck

Just a "death rattle" rally for the US$, 'Bard.... nothing more than that. It'll be lucky as all get out to make it to that 78.50 target of yours, there are two powerful Fibo's waiting right below that number; I don't think it'll make past 77.50. All the "dollar rallys" for the last week have had this Roman candle look to them, brief bursts and then... pppppphhhhhhtttttt..... no reason to think this one will be any different.

Today in Commodities: Will PPI and CPI Tell the Truth About Inflation?

IF... big if... it's luckier than it has ANY right to be.

Today in Commodities: Will PPI and CPI Tell the Truth About Inflation?

Spot on, 'Bard...

>The dollar is exhibiting signs of a bottom, let me rephrase a bounce
>could happen which would set up a good short opportunity

actually, an EXCELLENT "short opportunity", but that won't keep it from buttering the chumps yet again as the BubbleVision Bubblehead lather 'em up by putting visions of Dollar Index .90 dancing in their little punkin' seed heads.

Dollar rally will top just under 78.40, which is where it meets .618 Fibo resistance of the July 16 / Sep 12 top/bottom and .236 Fibo resistance of the June 8 / Aug 5 top/bottom.

Today in Commodities: Will PPI and CPI Tell the Truth About Inflation?

He was just seeing if you were paying attention, Mayer... good on 'ya .


On Sep 14 06:06 PM Mayer Amschel Rothschild wrote:

> Your article has nothing to do with PPI or CPI.

Today in Commodities: Living Up to Expectations

'Bard.... let me share something with you I learned a long time ago:

The more that one is hated, and the more enemies one makes, the closer one knows they are getting to the truth.

NG is in final capitulation mode, and you'll be vindicated. Nearly all of the Canadian NG juniors I follow have formed classic divergence bottoms against the NG low itself. Steady as she goes.


On Sep 03 05:52 PM Matthew Bradbard wrote:

> Hammer
> Did someone hit you in the head with a hammer? I am long $1 call
> spreads not futures so though clients are down they are still in
> expecting a move higher. See previous posts. Clients that listened
> to me are down in this trade but most are also long sugar and silver
> from much lower levels. It is called diversification.

Prepare Yourself for the Inflation Invasion

A: Gold and agricultural commodities.


On Aug 24 01:06 AM lance sjogren wrote:

> The $64000 question:
>
> When the stock market makes its coming correction, you are going
> to have a massive amount of cash sloshing around looking for a home.
>
>
> Whoever can figure out where it is going to go will be the next George
> Soros.
>
> (for conservatives who are offended, I should point out that I think
> George Soros' politics stink to high heaven, but the fact is he is
> the best example of someone who made a killing by predicting markets.)

Today in Commodities: Less Bad Is Good?

Use "Maxe" for what he/she/it is... a "Useful Idiot", in the words of Lenin.


On Aug 16 01:31 PM Freya wrote:

> Freya got to spend a night in a Hospital and came home to find a
> computer on the Fritz, probably because some idiot was trying something
> New. Had to uninstall all Adobe Flash software to get this far. Call
> it Feisty but I call it frustration.
>
> Then I find this comment from Maxe.
>
> I immediately backtracked through Maxe's comment stream to see if
> this was his normal style.
>
> It was, He called me Delusional. I refused to go down to his level.

Today in Commodities: Less Bad Is Good?

The so-called "sugar shortage" is going to be the excuse used to justify and rationalise the lifting of the trade embargo against Cuba. The Administration desperately wants a foreign-policy coup, and desperately wants to ditch the embargo. Watch.