trw88

Developments in Multi-Family Housing Don't Bode Well for New York Bancorp

I think the author raises some legit concerns but is overstating the impact the potential legislation will have on subsidized housing values and non-performing assets by a lot. I wouldn't underestimate how foolish the NY legislature could be with this destructive populism that is being hoisted upon us, but in the end I think it's more smoke than fire.

GE: Can You Hit This Fastball, Mr. Immelt?

Buffet got a 10% dividend (that wont be cut) meaning huge cash flow that he can use to buy whatever he wants cheaper and he makes his money back after 7.2years. So let's say he holds the stock for 7 and a quarter years - his profit is whatever the price of the stock is then. Sweet deal, he cant lose on these.

He also has warrants to buy for 5 years around $22, if I remember correctly.

GE: Can You Hit This Fastball, Mr. Immelt?

Immelt missed his earnings last year 3 weeks afte saying he would make them. He is goingto havre to cut the dividend and has pretty much said he was going to just a few months after saying he wouldnt. Immelt maybe a bright guy, but he sure doesnt seem to have a hnadle on running his business. As a long time shareholder who is taking this beating, I see nothing he can do to turn it around right now and i dont see him being able to do anything for 3 or 4 years, at least. He cant sell off assets in this environment, they arent worth anyting..

Obama’s Compensation Limits Amount to Zip

Couldnt disagree more, they are far more damaging than the non effect they have. It is more class warfare designed to drive a wedge between business and the have nots and they are really one and the same.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part III

Nice call on wyeth, huh?

U.S. Dollar Strength and Implications for Gold

Interesting article. I personally think the Pound Sterling and Euro have a long way to weaken and are behind the US by about 9 months. I like gold longer term, but not now.

Marc Faber on the Economy, Gold, WWIII

Marc Faber saw this in advance like my broken clock sees the correct time twice a day. That's what he and Nouriel Roubini do. Roubini has a monthly commentary on his website - or at least he did when i last checked. He was predicting Worldwide depression at least as as far back as 2002 and we got nearly unprecedneted worldwide growth for 5+ years after. They are no worse than the perma bulls who when the market is up act like the oracle of the ages and then hide when the markets go down.

U.S. Dollar: The Next Bubble to Pop

What bubble? The USD is 20% higher since July, but off historic lows. Gloom and doomers have been predicting US creditors will begin dumping at any time for 7 years now. They invest in US debt for 2 reasons. It's really their only alternative and it's in their interest to do so.

Andrew Hughes, what evidence do you have that US Creditors are getting nervous? Treasuries are paying the lowest rates in decades. If there were no demand for them, don't you think rates would have to be higher to sell the debt?

Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player

If it hasn't happened yet, why would it now? Honestly, who isn't aware of these issues?

Why Has the Dollar Rebounded - And When Will It Correct?

Who is this author? Pretty lean argument. Why is the dollar considered a "safe haven"? Nothing about relative strength of foreign economies, or relative interest rates which favors the USD. For the record, foreign finacial insitutions are in just as bad a condition and their Central banks are playing catch up easing rates and have further to go. For example, Switzerland had a surprise 1% easing just announced. I think the dollar goes higher for the short term.

Dollar Strength: An Illusion

Or they are preying on fools who think that.

Dollar Strength: An Illusion

Rdidculous, the dollar like everything else has a value that is worth exactly what it's worth today. The fact that it fluctuuates and overshoots should surprise no one. Since you are speculating on the future value of the dollar, I'll throw mine in as well. Was it oversold 3 months ago? Likely. Overvalued in 2000? Probably. If you see deflation and the price of commodities continuing to drop due to slack demand and if you see their Cenbtral Banks as well as Europes Banks getting more aggressive with their credit easing, I think it's clear the dollar will continue to strengthen in the near to interemediate term.

Did JPMorgan Almost Fail?

Pretty thin bio on this guy.

JPMorgan: Why I'm Selling Short

Emerald, the challenges Banks have are well known. Investors are all about risk and reward. Apparently they feel the liability is more or less reflected in the price.

JPM will survive this in better shape than just about any other financial institution out there. I agree with th author of this piece and apparently you as well that there may be downside risks in the short term. I am happy to hold it and collect the 4%, even if it takes several years to see this work out.

I think a better and more less risky strategy than shorting is to hold and collect the dividend and accumulate more on weakness.

I highly doubt the July lows will be seen again, but would be buying agressively under $35 if it gets there.

If you are a short term trader, there are better shorts out there than JPM in my opinion.

JPMorgan: Why I'm Selling Short

Why would the author even put a long term short target on JPM of roughly $31?

That represents a roughly 20% return. If you use a year as long term, it costs you 12% a year in margin interest and another 4% in dividends you have to pay.

IF he's right and meets his objective, you can make 4%, what you can get on a CD guaranteed.

On the other hand, he likes JPM long term. Why not collect the 4% plus dividend while you accumulate it - you would make the same as taking the risk to hold it short for a year? Seems like a better strategy to me.

I never understood shorting long term. Too risky, too expensive.