cheryl_stevens

3 Comments

    • ON: Sat Jun 14th 04:15 AM
      Commented on:
      Focus Media Should Stem Losses on Actionable Call from Goldman
      You cannot look at FCF on a textbook basis, in this case, FCF is not meaningful, because FMCN was incurring a stream of cash outlays of different sizes due to acquisitions. Gross margin of 45% to 50% from the digital-out-of-home is a more logical view, I think this is a Warren Buffet stock, wide moat, decent managers, good price, more and more profitable 10 yrs from now.
      Another reason to confirm that this market is not efficient, the same FCF number for everybody to see, but with vastly different views.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed May 14th 21:40 PM
      Commented on:
      Beijing Olympics May Have Negative Impact on Chinese Investments
      REBEL, good luck and prepare to lose money.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue May 13th 15:00 PM
      Commented on:
      Beijing Olympics May Have Negative Impact on Chinese Investments
      Regarding ctrp, it think it is naive to buy or sell a stock simply because a event might or might not happen in the next 12 months, you buy or sell ctrp based on its fundamentals over time, in this case, is ctrp going to sell more and more air tickets, rooms and others and make money at the same time, not because how their customers will behave within that 12 olympic related months.

      Regarding fmcn, if they have to replace lcds, so what, what is the costs relative to their margin, this is the cost of doing this line of business, likely they will replace them again for the 3rd time, perhaps for additional features which doesn't exist today; also, regarding the effectiveness of digital out-of-home marketing, I don't think you understand what need to be asked, it is not the effectiveness, it is every competitor is doing it, so I have to do it too psychology, if PG is doing it, JNJ not doing it? In addition, the effectiveness cannot be measured for this kind of displays, unlike pay-for-performance in the internet ad world, how do you measure sales increase per digital minute displayed?
      For fmcn, as long as minute-volume is growing, and as long as they have pricing power, which they have, tier 1 displays are limited, therefore they have pricing power, that's why they increased price 10% (1/1) and 12%(7/1), and when penetration is going up on tier 2/3, their moat is widening. That's the stuff you need to look at, not lcd replacements.
      I don't think you should be in the business of evaluating businesses.
      View article »
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