sirfisup

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

What a ridiculous post!

The world economy just about when off a cliff and you have to rehash what most of the world already knows.

What drives me crazy is how dumb the author is in declaring that solar production is below 2008 production.

Its moronic to post such garbage when world financing when into the toilet.

Please find some other subject to write as your feeble attempt to tell all in the solar space that production is off from 2008 levels is just absolutely ridiculous.

Picking Solar Energy Winners

I am scatching my head regarding the advantages of TSl versus STP.

Foe now TSL is better positioned only because it is the smaller of the 2 comapnies. As far as the technology is concerned how can anyone compare the two companies. STp far outclasses TSL in every way.

TSL is only benefiting bases upon its size but will not be able to compete long term when the market changes and the demand is driven by large scale utility projects of which STP will leave TSL in the dust.

If you ask me TSL is heading back to $15 sooner than later and the optimisim for a company with no technological advantages is IMHO a bit far fetched.

Chinese Lawmakers' New Renewable Energy Policy Will Benefit Solar Companies

What you failed to mention in your comparison of Yingli and STP is that STP has a huge advantage over YGE in the technological advancements it has already made with their Pluto Technology and is already working on 2nd and 3rd generation amorphous silicon solar cell advancements of which IMHO will position STP well ahead of YGE and matter of factly will leave them in the dust. STP is a much better positioned company regarding product diversification and is far better positioned to resume significant growth as they now are well positioned for larger scale utility projects. STP ownership made only one mistake and perhaps it will not be the impediment that most people think and that was to negotiate long term silicon contracts and when the economy went south had to write down their losses which were principally overinflated payments for raw materials. Fact is that STP did the smart thing and came up front and center unlike LDK which likes to decieve its stockholders as witnessed by their massive losses in 4th Q and very poor 1st Q forecast. STP also added to their cash position and is being conservative with Capex so that they will meet their debt obligations. Fact is that STP's diversification with BIPV thin film and increased cost efficiencies through Pluto will make it clearly the most cost efficient PV company in China and will ultimately be the lowest cost per watt producer of panels as solar cell efficiencies improve and raw materials remain at their current prices. When and if prices for raw materials inccrease which many people feel will happen with rebound in technology sector for silicon demand expected in 4th Q of 2009. Either way STP will benefit from new reduced raw material contract pricing for silicon and if silicon demand increases STP will be miles ahead from their competition because they have secured long term contracts while competitors will have to pay a premium for silicon when spot prices spike. Don't discount STP's ability to navigate through these troubled times and when the business climate should change I expect STP to be well positioned for the world adoption of solar as cost per watt continues to plunge and solar becomes more cost efficient than coal.

Suntech Power: Now a Takeover Target

The convertable notes are seen as a drag on the PPS however STP has stated that they are investigating all options as to how to deal with the convertable note issues. During their earnings CC STP said that they have very strong backing of Chinese banks and have sufficient lines of credit that they can draw from. I agree that the debt ratio is not favorable and that it will be a concern heading into 2009. The silver lining here is that STP recognizes that they need to come up with a solution as to how they will deal with the debt when its called in and have said that they are working on the solution to deal with this issue. It is of course Dr. Shi's best interest to calm the analysts views and provide a viable solution that will be met with positive sentiment from the investors and investment community. I suspect that STP will provide some answers as to how they will deal with this problem and it could be that they will either have a common stock offering that would IMHO not be in the best interest of the comapny as the markets are full of sellers and very few buyers however we could see some venture capital come to the aid of STP or we could see a loan from the Chinese govt of which could be derived from the $586 billion stimulus plan. The company has already stated that they are working on renegotiating their silicon contracts and plan to shelve expansion in 2009 which will save the company close to $100 million dollars. Hopefully within a few months STP will have an answer to to this concern and if the remedy is rec'd positively we could see some major upgrades and we could see a major uptrend as alternatives should see a resurgence to 2007 growth levels in 2010. The trick of course is to see how STP weathers the storm in 2008.

Suntech Power: Now a Takeover Target

The notion that STP is for sale is ridiculous. STP's Dr. Shi has very ambitious plans to be the largest solar cell company in the world and has been tight lipped about its thin film plant which will be operational by end of 2008. The thin film plant is projected to produce 50 MW. I know that Dr. Shi and Dr. Wenhem have extensive non-crystilline expertise as evidenced by their success of selling Pacific Solar which has patented CSOG technologies. I suspect that Drs. Shi and Wenhem are both working on 2nd or 3rd generation thin film. Funny that STP has been very tight lipped about what there R & D team are cooking up in the labs. It is also important to note and not to be overlooked is STP's collaboritive effort with UNIV of NSW regarding research of thin film technologies and although they are not the only company that shares its resources they are the biggest contributor of grant money than any other solar company with ties to the UNIV. The economic market contraction within solar is creating the perfect storm for solar innovation and R & D investment and I am hopeful that we will learn of some greater thin film conversion efficiencies in 2009 for I truly believe that STP has something major up their sleeve. Solar is now more attractive than ever with all of the tax incentives and feed in tarriffs that are in place and we should see more incentives as Obama makes alternatives a key part of his stimulus package. You would have to be absolutely nuts to sell your company when you are on the verge of 40% annual growth. Certainly 2009 will not be a banner year and many solar companies will struggle to survive however with continued conversion efficiencies, innovation and lower raw material costs it appears that those who do survive beyond 2009 will experience the greatest growth beyond their wildest imagination.

Three Solar Picks That Should Thrive, Even with Reduced Subsidies

This credit crisis will be short lived in the US. I expect a major stimulus package to be enacted in the first Q which will be in the neighborhood of $500 billion I also expect a mortgage rescue plan to be enacted and that funds to accomplish this will be from the remaining $350 billion of the unused TARP. In addition Obama will invest heavily in green technologies and will further spurn solar with new feed in tarriffs which are common place in Europe. Obama will make alternative energy more of a collaborative effort with Europe and the emerging economies and we could see a major resurgence in the solar sector which will make this downturn look like a small blip. Let us not also forget that China will be providing more concrete details as to how it will invest their own stimulus package of $560 billion. The details concerning China's stimulus are expected in late November and could include some significant benefits to the Chinese solar industries in the form of added subsidies that may be targeted to the rural areas of China where electricity is still non existent today. This doom and gloom is greatly excaberated by the price of oil and this too will come to pass. OPEC continues to cut production and the production costs in the US are still too high for it too be considered as a future viable option. The US with only 3% of the worlds reserves needs to adopt a policy of which will be less reliant to Middle East Oil and I do believe that this transitional period that we are in has hurt the solar industry and that the constant negative news is keeping investors from enetering the market until the new President and his administration take office.

Solar's Brightest Companies Named; Sector Outlook Is Dim

The writer is can't make up his mind as to whether he is for or against the solar industry and makes a poor argument from both sides. To say that the PPS of solar companies dropped as a result of one conference is laughable. The expansion of alternative energy continues to gain momentum and I wouldn't be surprised to see Spain rethink curtailing its feed in tarriff policy for solar after Russia's recent invasion of Georgia. Secondly the oil ministers of OPEC recognize that they are in the home stretch of securing ridiculous profits and are only concerned about reshaping their own economies when oil is no longer the world energy of choice.

Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings

You are a moron. Silicon prices are headed way down and in 2 years time grid parrity will have already been met in countries like Spain and Italy. Solar panel prices are headed down in lieu of lower silicon costs and better solar efficiencies. The price of oil even at $80 a barrel if it should make that far is still twice as high as almost 2 years ago. I suggest that you take your brains out of your ass and stop smoking crack for the basis of your article has absolutely no merit.

Will U.S. Recession Lead to Solar Depression?

Although your article was published in January I believe it has strong merit. I believe that solar will be the beneficiary of extended tax credits and because of the recent heightened awareness about escalating oil prices more pressure is being placed upon our goverment representatives to get something done especially with an election year around the corner. I doubt that many in the house or senate want to be known as obstructionists in helping our nation ween itself off Middle East oil. Although the solar industry is extremely volitile the companies that play in this space are all reporting record sales and profits. The recent discussion of lower subsidies in Spain and Germany has caused a major and unjust pullback and many of the analysts that cover the sector have also said that there are major free cash flow problems with many of these companies and that they will not be able to expand production because of the tightening credit markets. I don't foresee this to be a problem for there is sustainable demand for solar well into 2010 and beyond and with silicon prices soon to come down it will significantly increase the adoption rates and bring solar to grid parity no later than 2012. Any disruptive technology that offers significant benefits will most certainly have its infancy problems just like any major industry that gets off the ground. Fact is that major venture capital is pouring in at record levels and huge technology companies like Intel, IBM, Applied Materials just to name a few are rushing in just like the miners did during the gold rush. More and more large solar projects are coming online and more are being contracted with major utility companies and it is just a matter of time before every major oil company with the exception of BP and Shell will recognize that "if you can't beat them then join them"

My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions

Wind power FYI is not a commoditized business its just not practical considering the huge amounts of land needed and the time needed to manufacture the product. GE can't produce the turbines needed fast enough and now the only alternative for wind to gain interest and investment is for smaller turbines otherwise wind is dead. You can take that to the bank.

My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions

I am realy surprised that you discounted Suntech Holdings. Disruptive technology means nothing unless it has a significant TAM. Suntech's scalability and production advantages are too heavily discounted here simply because they can retrofit their production lines quickly and at much lower cost efficiencies than most of their competitors. The biggest reason why you should of had them on your list is simple "economies of scale". Suntech has the most to gain over and above all other solar players because it has yet to ramp-up production for use within China and India. The most cost effective solution will always win in the end. Just like Mercedes appeals to a certain demographics Toyata appeals to a much wider demagraphic simply because it is a great product at half the expense of a Mercedes. In addition it is important to note that companies with significant cash flow such as Suntech can also add any technology like BIPV with MSK purchase and incorporate their own thin film technology of which Dr. Shi has many other patents but sees the BIPV commercialization with thin film integration to be the emerging technology winner for massive commercial and residential adoption. The best is yet to come and you can expect some exciting breakthroughs with the BIPV.