sirfisup

Solar Market Declines for First Time Ever

What a ridiculous post!

The world economy just about when off a cliff and you have to rehash what most of the world already knows.

What drives me crazy is how dumb the author is in declaring that solar production is below 2008 production.

Its moronic to post such garbage when world financing when into the toilet.

Please find some other subject to write as your feeble attempt to tell all in the solar space that production is off from 2008 levels is just absolutely ridiculous.

Could PV Go the Way of Toasters?

Innovation and improving cost efficiencies along with low labor costs are the driving engines for solor growth worlwide.

It is comical to think that STP is not investing a significant amount of R & D to further improve solar efficiencies and their management team is light years ahead of many other solar PV manufacturers.

Additionaly STP has a very diversified product mix and is more diversified IMHO of any large PV manufactuer.

The capex reduction in 2009 is nothing unusual considering the world recession and oversupply of panels however the 4th Q writedowns were more closely related to STP's polysilicon contracts which were higher than spot market prices.

STP has since renegotiated contracts with their main suppliers and will benefit considerably as the weaker hands in the Chinese PV business are either driven out of business or taken over by the larger players. IMHO it is more likely that the bigger Chinese solar players will not come to the aid of the smaller companies and will be the direct beneficieries as more and more companies will want to do business with established companies who can ensure thet prices and warranties will be enforced.

Its just a matter of when the solar industry will trend up again and most anaylysts see 2011 as the breakout year and we all could see some significant increases in world demand and should be near or close to grid parrity.

The analogy of toasters is bit far fetched and with silicon prices continuing to fall it is more likely that a company like STP with huge labor cost advantages will actually be selling their panels which are more cost effient and power efficient at lower costs than FSLR who for the moment are the market leaders in avg cost per watt but for how long they remain the leader is the bigger question. I wouldn't underestimate the power of the Chinese economy and unlike the US the Chinese need for renewables will far outpace the US demand and will surely benefit the Chinese solar manufacturers and a company like STP will have the most to gain when prices reach grid parrity.

Three Solar Picks That Should Thrive, Even with Reduced Subsidies

This credit crisis will be short lived in the US. I expect a major stimulus package to be enacted in the first Q which will be in the neighborhood of $500 billion I also expect a mortgage rescue plan to be enacted and that funds to accomplish this will be from the remaining $350 billion of the unused TARP. In addition Obama will invest heavily in green technologies and will further spurn solar with new feed in tarriffs which are common place in Europe. Obama will make alternative energy more of a collaborative effort with Europe and the emerging economies and we could see a major resurgence in the solar sector which will make this downturn look like a small blip. Let us not also forget that China will be providing more concrete details as to how it will invest their own stimulus package of $560 billion. The details concerning China's stimulus are expected in late November and could include some significant benefits to the Chinese solar industries in the form of added subsidies that may be targeted to the rural areas of China where electricity is still non existent today. This doom and gloom is greatly excaberated by the price of oil and this too will come to pass. OPEC continues to cut production and the production costs in the US are still too high for it too be considered as a future viable option. The US with only 3% of the worlds reserves needs to adopt a policy of which will be less reliant to Middle East Oil and I do believe that this transitional period that we are in has hurt the solar industry and that the constant negative news is keeping investors from enetering the market until the new President and his administration take office.