DSB

Dr. Doom Responds on Wells Fargo

Roubini should write a rebuttal entitled "Dr. Douche vs. Dr. Doom"

Dr. Doom Responds on Wells Fargo

Tom,

How much wealth (other people's money) have you destroyed? How much has Roubini saved?

You are an ass.

News Flash to BofA's Lewis: Demand Isn't Problem - Supply Is

Just shut up. It is clear that you don't understand what is going on, much like Tom. Tom called a bottom on July 15th, as meaured by the XLF when it was $17.17. It is now at $15.28, a full 8% lower. Tom then put out this 'disclaimer'

"If you can’t stand the idea of seeing another, say, 20% on the downside, please stop reading at once and head back to CNBC.com."

Tom said this on 7/22/08, when the XLF was at $22.49. As of today, the XLF is 32% lower than when Tom made that call. THIRTY TWO PERCENT LOWER!!!

This thing is a mess, and Tom continues to avoid the heart of the matter. People who have listened to Tom have lost money, when 'smart money' was pulling out of financials. How can one be SO wrong, and not own up to any of it?

Tom, we would respect you a lot more if you would at least own up to your bad advice.

There is a real risk of failure in the system. It may be a small fraction of a percent, but the risk is still there, and it has increased over the last 3 months. It would be nice to hear Tom acknowledge this risk and issue a cautionary note.

Look at the SEC website to see what second curve capital owns. If Tom had thrown in the towel 3 months ago, it would have avoided MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY down the drain. That is reckless.

Paulson even said today that there is more pain to come.

That is all.

/rant over

News Flash to BofA's Lewis: Demand Isn't Problem - Supply Is

Care to call another bottom in the financials Tom?

Coming Bull Market in Financials: A Few Items Portending the Turn

Tom, I'm not going to make any more pro-Tom-Brown posts on message boards until you pay me. Consider this my resignation.

MBIA's Momentous 2Q: Need More Evidence That the Turn Has Arrived?

Tom, let's see you pull off this kind of move before you start badmouthing Bill Ackman.

www.businesssheet.com/...

What is your YTD? Based on your SEC filings, not so great.

Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't

Tom,

Your thesis hinges upon the theory that the market is a "Discounting Machine". This writeup questions the validity of that theory:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Next: www.marketwatch.com/ne...

Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't

You owned 5% of Indymac bank going into Sept of last year, using something like 20% of your funds ($86MM out of ?), ouch.

www.reuters.com/articl...

"IndyMac is in a stronger position now because so many of its competitors have left the business, said Tom Brown, a former top-ranked bank-stock analyst who now runs hedge fund Second Curve Capital LLC. The New York-based fund has raised its passive stake in IndyMac to 5 percent from 2 percent, representing a total of 3.7 million shares"

Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't

Tom, the more I learn about you Tom, the more I am shocked at your audacity. You took BIG bets on subprime, and lost your ass. How could you NOT see this coming, and expect us to hold you credible? What are you down on the year, 30%?

hf-implode.com/ailing/...

www.businessweek.com/b...

"I think we're really close, if not at the bottom, for the financial services industry," - Great call Tom, way back in November of 2007!
www.reuters.com/articl...

Way to read the tea leaves Tom:
“ Mr. Brown, whose hedge fund had owned 5 percent of IndyMac late last year, described Mr. Perry as an “eternal optimist.”
www.nytimes.com/2008/0...

And my favorite: Your recommendation to buy FMD on 11/30/07 when it was at $30.01/share. It is now at $2.90/share.
vinvesting.com/vic-nyc...

Please explain yourself.

Wake Up America, You’re Sinking

Read this: brighton.ncsa.uiuc.edu...

This is a story about the future, how people interact in the future, and how we become dependent upon technology to survive. At some point, things aren't so great & mediocrity and decay set in.

It was written in 1909, and it may take you a day or two - so print it out.

Canadian Oil Sands, Penn West Energy Protected on the Downside

wsigler,

Who can't claim the 15% credit back in the US? I was unaware of that. Considering that MOST investors get the 15% back, and are not double taxed, then this is apples to appples vs. some other tax advantaged cash flow/dividend investment.

Second, how is the theoretical net lowered by a match in DUG? Would you please explain the numbers? Are you saying that the opportunity cost of the 50% position is eating into yield? I don't see how the yield gets knocked down to 5.5 or 6%.

Matching your investment with a 50% position in DUG (i.e. for $100K invested in the basket, 50K goes into DUG - which yields ~2%) would cause the investment to be market neutral - extracting dividend yield. At that point, your yield is contingent upon whether or not the trusts lower distributions.

thx for your input.

Canadian Oil Sands, Penn West Energy Protected on the Downside

Thanks. Check out the "my website" link by my name to see this trade in more detail. I have been cooking over the trade for a week & I want people to poke holes in it (and give me 5 stars). Some of the language is NWS. IBC (linking site) has some of the best content and advice in this market - bar none. It has changed the way I invest, it features dozens of high caliber contributors - often with differing points of view.

Canadian Oil Sands, Penn West Energy Protected on the Downside

You can pair PWE/PGH/HTE and PVX against a 50% position in DUG to keep your principal (in theory) market neutral, while extracting ~ 15% dividend yield. If you are betting on oil going up, don't do DUG and get 15% + upside in the stock price.

What Can Go Right for the Financials? Quite a Bit, Actually

Great post Tom; I really like you, and I think that your opinions are revolutionary. You have really opened my eyes to the way of things. Keep on posting solid gold baby.

U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion

- The durables number was boosted quite a bit by defense spending

- New home sales were up, but so are foreclosrures (defaults) www.bloomberg.com/apps...

- The dollar strengthens as the velocity of money slows down (liquidity leaves the system)

- Inflation may drive the fed to raise rates, which will strengthen the dollar but kill banks.

- I believe the dollar was beaten down by the assumption that the Fed would continue to write blank checks. Once the FNM/FRE bailout happened, the fed's language implied that they would not bail out other institutions down the road. This gave dollar bulls clarity, considering that each bailout = weaker dollar in theory. Also, when the obligation of the Fed in regards to FNM/FRE was estimated to be 26B (and nowhere near 5T), the dollar continued to strengthen.

- Oil is a wild card. Iran tension will push oil up, wheras deflationary pressures (lack of demand) will send it down (strengthing $).

- Why isn't the market rallying more with such 'great' economic news today?

- Within the last 6 weeks, 4 major institutions have issued dire warnings for the US Banking system, and the government has taken extreme measures to prevent collapse. Is more to come? The dollar bottomed this year on the day BSC went belly up, which tells me that the Dollar is also correlated to the health of the derivatives market.

At the end of the day, there are several things that push the dollar around - including foreign monetary policy & macroeconomic events such as the amount of liquidity in the market, oil prices, and Gold. Not all of these are good things, so I wouldn't necessarily correlate dollar strength with overall economic strength.