baird's Comments

If This Is a Recovery...

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 09:49:53 -0500

Taking away Social Security and Medicare is obviously nuts but what could improve the situation would be a relative reduction in benefits which could make a dramatic difference in the long term viability of both these programs.

On Nov 15 12:27 PM bbro wrote:

> You want to take away social security and Medicare go ahead ( good
> luck getting elected too)....the last time the world you dream of
> existed was in 1893....
> good times for all.....

Market to Shine on Solar Industry Through 2011

Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:45:26 -0400

Keith,

So you want to give us the detailed documentation on this, last I checked the DOE website two years was the energy breakeven for the average pv panel, not sure about the co2 numbers though.

On Oct 30 03:45 PM keithfeather wrote:

> Uh oh, I just checked the FPL specs for their big projects just completed.
> It looks like the connected cost is actually over $7.00 per watt!
> I

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

Sat, 19 Sep 2009 20:09:59 -0400

Actually when you consider the externalized costs, particularly of coal, solar makes a lot of sense even at current panel/system prices.

On Sep 19 09:19 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Americans prefer oil and coal. What kind of statement is that? As
> for solar, some of it makes a lot of sense, and a lot of it makes
> no sense at all.

Nissan’s Leaf: First Big Mistake Right Out of the Blocks

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 10:46:49 -0400

Schweizer,

Where oh where does electricity cost $1/kwh , in Moab ut where I spend winters it's 8c/kwh and in the Adirondacks where I live rest of the year it's 15cents/kwh during the day and the night off-peak rate is about 5cents.

On Aug 05 06:55 AM Schweizer wrote:

> The dirty little secret is that all of these EVs need to be recharged
> and tests have shown that to replace the energy consumed equates
> to 1 kilowatt-hour for every 4 miles driven. Right now electricity
> off the grid is in the $1/kwh cost range, so these cars cost 25-cents
> per mile to drive just for energy. So to go 30 miles costs $7.50
> in electricity vs. going 30 miles in a economy car cost about $3
> right now (gas). That's a steep premium to pay to make a "green"
> statement considering all the other tradeoffs (range and sticker
> price) one would need to make.

An Unpleasant Comparison: Demographics and Deflation

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:32:02 -0400

All true from an economic point of view however the implications for environmental quality due to ever increasing numbers searching for the "good life" are sobering. And I'm not talking about the usual tree hugger issues of snail darters, etc but big time environmental degredation which will be painfully obvious to all of our children and future generations.

On Jul 09 01:52 PM DWStein wrote:

> This is a very important subject that only gets attention periodically.
> So, thank you for brining it up.
>
> Imigration policy is very, very important to the continued prosperity
> of our country. We need a comprehensive policy that deals both with
> security and population growth. We should be letting people emigrate
> to this contry, but only the people we want.
>
> Tired, hungy and poor is a wonderful policy, but it needs to be brought
> into the 21st century. We need to know who is coming through our
> borders, we need to get them into the system properly, and we need
> to fully enfranchise them. Let us also not kid ourselves. Let's
> be transparent and agree that people with real capital (educationaly
> and/or monitarily) should be given priority.
>
> There is nothing more dangerous, in the long term, than having a
> seperate society within a larger society. Large poplutions without
> a significant stake in the future of the broader society are inherantly
> unstable. Just look at Europe's struggles with their muslim population.
>
>
> As the boomers retire, we are going to need freesh blood, period.
>
>
> Any fraternaty/sorority alumni might recognize the phrase, "Give
> 'em a bid. We need the dues!"

Poisoning the Green Shoots

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 13:02:41 -0400

This incredible experiment on planet earth obviously has no precedent, we've had the pedal all the way down and now it's through the firewall. It ain't complicated folks there's way too many of us and that's growing quickly to what "final" number who knows. And everyone wants to live the "good life" not just the clueless in the developed countries. It's not complicated but of course we still don't get it, without question we're way beyond sustainability and far into defcon omega or whatever is the ultimate alert status. Very sad prognosis and worst is it didn't have to be.

On Jun 07 09:35 AM fran wrote:

> greed and excessive population growth do influence this earth greatly.
> huxley covered such a situation in his book-"brave new world". a
> model does exist to ameliorate the poison, but brings with it other
> ailments as tradeoffs[ SOMA, FEELIES, HATCHERIES, etc].
> come to think, we've almost socio-engineered our way there with little
> forethought. or is there more forethought/plan than we realize?
>
>
> could THE CLUB OF ROME still exist?

Understanding What Buy and Hold Really Means

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:42:29 -0400

With respect and I do generally respect your opinions just how does even an enlightened investor do valid research on individual equities? Way too many uncertainties not to mention outright misinformation to ever accomplish this in my opinion.

On Apr 29 02:21 AM Steven Hansen wrote:

> an old advisor once told me it is not so much the stock as the sector.
> once you identify the sector, the selection of the stock becomes
> relatively easy.
>
> my point is performing sectors keep changing. and now today we are
> faced with a unpredictable future. in a long running bull market
> everything is moving up (of course at different rates) so buy and
> hold works no matter how lazy you are.
>
> the bottom line is that i review my sectors monthly, and take action
> as required.
>

The Plug In Vehicle Scam

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 17:34:16 -0400

I haven't read all the comments so forgive me if this has been mentioned however according to various reputable sources some 80% of the worlds population will live in/near cities. Obviously mass transit could have major impacts with these high density centers however it also seems that phev could fit nicely into these incipient arcologies. Further, many/most of us in developed countries have more than one vehicle and it seems to me that for daily/urban/suburban drivers one phev could fill an important non ice niche economically.

On Apr 28 10:28 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Sorry Mr Petersen, but too many smart people have told me that there
> is a future for plug in vehicles. They didn't tell me however how
> many of these items will be on the road in e.g. 2030, and in what
> countries. In any event, although 'scam' is one of my favorite words,
> I don't think that it belongs here.

Looking Back in Order to Look Ahead

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 12:07:11 -0400

FEB,

I too am very puzzled about why Afghanistan makes any sense, even less than Iraq. Large scale military actions to eliminate "terrorist" strongholds will always be counterproductive, whatever Obama is he's not stupid, go figure. Maybe just a head fake to let everyone know he's not "weak" but I suspect that for all of O's feel good exterior inside he's about as tough as they come.

On Apr 04 08:51 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:

> Some of this is very interesting. After reading the latest Newsweek
> I came to the conclusion that the big oil price increase contributed
> more to the bad news than I thought, however that price has now descended
> to a healthier level, and President Obama seems to have mobilized
> the enthusiasm of the people in the back room for a problem solving
> exercise.
>
> At the same time, his desire to continue the war in Afghanistan strikes
> me as insane, and I hope that the other G20 participants try to talk
> some sense into him. I also hope that the promise to give money to
> the IMF (and probably the World Bank) was only a promise and not
> the real thing. If they really need money they can sell their headquarters
> in Washington to the Hilton Hotel people and
> operate out of a toilet in the White House.

Even Thin Solar Can't Weather Silicon Glut - Barron's

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 10:38:43 -0400

Responsible,

With respect, go to West Virginia and look at the mining operations or any forest on the east coast, try to eat the fish, check mercury levels in your body, co2 emissions, etc, then tell me coal is cheaper. This has always been the problem with coal, the market simply doesn't price the externalized costs. BTW your other numbers in favor of coal are off too by about an order of magnitude.

On Mar 29 02:52 PM Repsonsible Citizen wrote:

> We'll It simple , Solar produced electrcity is still 28 times the
> cost of Coal electricty . Even with tax credits , goverment subsidies
> it still comes out to about 22 tmes the current cost , in this economy
> 97% of America simply cant afford solar even if they wanted to .
> My Electric company offered me 20% of my Electric to be generated
> by there Solar division my monthly bill would have gone up from
> around $100 to $400 I said NO Thank You! And thats Just 20% solar
> cost , at that rate 100% would be OVER $2000 a month . Someday Solar
> will come down maybe to say 3 times the cost of coal , then in a
> better economy I'm sure most people could be convinced or shamed
> into going All solar but for now and into the forseeable future
> Solar will be a great idea thats just NOT practical for the vast
> majority of people.

WSJ: Kansas Furthers Already Atrocious Market Myths

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:21:19 -0400

Yes and the 6-9billion unit gorilla no one will talk about is global population. While it's true that population trends in the developed countries are flat to down most of the world is undeveloped where birth rates are high and death rates are down. The argument that after the planet is all "developed" population will stabilize is specious at best, by that time we're all cooked.

On Mar 24 08:25 AM chistletoe wrote:

> The key to Wall Street's sales pitch is
> the very basic assumption that over the long haul, growth is inevitable.
>
>
> Now that the planet has reached or exceeded the maximum human population
> which it can support, and food and water supplies are threatened,
>
> now that oil and other forms of energy have reached and passed
their
> peak production,
> this is a highly suspicious assumption.
>
> for generations to come,
> one can reasonably predict economic retraction.
> Where, then, should one invest?
>
> Not stock. Not bonds.

Pension Shortfalls: Yet Another Time Bomb

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 13:10:38 -0400

China,

It's not just the unions, it's all of us who refuse to face some very simple problems in arithmetic, apparently we prefer to scream at each other across the political/philosophical chasms like school children in the locker room. Look at the projections for just social security, medicare and medicaid at about 2040, it's not difficult to understand we either have to reduce the rate of growth of these and any future health care programs and/or raise contribution limits or go bankrupt. It's not complicated, it's a matter of having a bipartisan intelligent adult conversation, but that's very unlikely to happen unless we the people require it of our "leaders"

On Mar 25 09:27 AM China Expert wrote:

> Lets face it..... the unions "want" and the politicians will "give"
> until the very last day when the problem because a national catastrophe
> !
>
> Neither the unions, politicians or public think about future problems
> since their only focus is "ME" and "NOW" !

Wind Turbine Energy: How It Works and Stocks to Watch

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 11:27:12 -0400

Clearly matching real time load requirements with wind availability is a key issue and there are some interesting methods being explored to store energy which may mitigate this problem to some extent, we shall see.

On Mar 22 10:40 AM billp37 wrote:

> "The reason is that in Texas, and most of the United States, the
> hottest days are the least windy. As a result, wind turns out to
> be a good way to save fuel, but not a good way to avoid building
> plants that burn coal. A wind machine is a bit like a bicycle that
> a commuter keeps in the garage for sunny days. It saves gasoline,
> but the commuter has to own a car anyway.
>
> But neither wind nor solar power can be used to meet surging energy
> demands. And, while wind may be a low-cost resource when it is blowing,
> no renewable resources will provide for the large "base load" resources
> that Colorado needs the most.
>
> An economic analyst claims he's done the numbers and wind energy
> is costing the Victorian Government far more money than any wind
> turbines could generate.
>
> In addition wind is very unreliable, it cuts in and cuts out, so
> you have to have backup for it, so the costs are somewhat in excess
> of that crude depiction of the premium price you have to pay for
> wind.
>
> "Oh, well they just cut in and cut out. Windfarms on average operate
> for 25 per cent of the time, but they only operate when the wind
> is blowing, so when the wind isn't blowing they're not available.
> I think it was well publicised in South Australia a wek or so ago
> when they had a heatwave of 42 or so degrees and suddenly none of
> the windfarms were operating, or only operating at very low level
> and one of them caught fire. Wind is not and cannot be reliable.
> You can rely on it to be there when you need it only 10 per cent
> of the time," he says."
>
> Links to articles found here.
>
> www.prosefights.org/wi...
>
>
>

The Bull Case for Big Oil

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:40:35 -0400

Best to stick with some diversification IE XLE

On Mar 17 08:42 AM epeon wrote:

> I agree with the basic thesis that oil is going to go higher. However,
> COP has a very high percentage of its business from natural gas.
> And, frankly, I am not so bullish on natural gas. I, therefore,
> do not like COP. A different major would be a better choice for
> me (I own BP, for example).

Does Wind Power Produce More Carbon Emissions than Coal?

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:56:57 -0500

Well you know the old song- figures don't lie but liars sure do figure.

Still Searching for Rock Bottom in Markets

Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:27:57 -0500

Ummm a group of "outsiders" , surely you jest.

Obama Calls for Doubling Renewable Energy in Three Years

Sat, 10 Jan 2009 18:45:00 -0500

You may have heard of Mill's infant industries idea IE that emerging technologies/industrie... often require initial startup funds/breaks in order to ultimately develop into viable entities. BTW how much subsidy do you think exists in our fossil fuel energy system?

On Jan 09 09:21 AM John Polomny wrote:

> If it needs a subsidy to compete it is not viable. I have seen mandated
> renewable projects that cost consumers three and four times what
> coal or natural gas fired power costs. As soon as the subsidy runs
> out or the mandate expires the project is not competitive so the
> utility is in the position of having to lobby (bribe) the legislature
> to renew or extend the subsidy. Forcing consumers and business to
> pay high prices for uncompetitive power sources just puts us further
> behind other countries were these mandates do not exsist.

The US Auto Crisis

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:08:18 -0400

Gino, can you say frequency of repair statistics?

Does Al Gore Finally Get It?

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:53:17 -0400

Thinkbig et al,

I should have been less cryptic, consider, whether or not one believes in significant human causes to global warming (it is warming) it seems we all should agree that it's in our national interest to reduce our dependence on imported oil. Imported oil contributes to lots of our other problems IE geopolitical, military, economic, environmental, etc. Wouldn't be a bad thing to work on these and in the process reduce co2 levels too, you think?

Does Al Gore Finally Get It?

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:40:30 -0400

Chill folks, and think.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:28:40 -0400

Flyer, yes these points are not widely circulated in msm and have low visibility but are crucial to making informed decisions re the true cost of oil.

Getting Excited About PHEVs

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:21:34 -0400

I think phevs are perhaps the best long term option and it seems to me that concerns about stressing current grid capacity are obstacles which can be overcome. Various distributed power solutions from a variety of inputs will ramp up as demand increases. Photovoltaics are coming down the cost curve, wind is already competitive and nuclear must be part of the long term mix. We must avoid coal plants unless carbon sequestration becomes feasible.

Homebuilders Increasingly Green [Housing Tracker]

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:36:52 -0400

And one of the energy tragedies of the past 25yrs+ is that it's been simple and inexpensive to build efficient buildings for a very long time, as they say not rocket science. Unfortunately, the construction/design professions just haven't attached much importance to this until recently. I've been designing and building extremely low energy requirement buildings for many years in the northeast which fit into the traditional design vocabulary.

Now it appears the return on investment for virtually any improvements in efficiency will be extremely high given the projected energy supply/demand situation so perhaps market forces will accomplish what decades of proselitizing has failed to do. However time is short and we are way behind the curve.

Oil Guesses Getting Better, Still Off

Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:27:00 -0400

User, with all due respect God has nothing to do with these problems they belong wholly to defective humanoids.

Oil's Gains Are Due to Fundamentals, Not Speculation

Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:08:09 -0400

paulk,

Hubbert certainly wasn't wrong about US peak oil production, it's been declining since 1970

The Great Oil Deception: Part Two

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 08:06:40 -0400

Everything depends on the long term intersections of supply/demand. I agree that in the long run, whatever that is, reasonably priced alternatives to oil may be developed however it's difficult to see how significant pain can be avoided until then.

A Look at Fisher's Three-Year Rule

Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:10:35 -0400

If anyone can consistently figure out #1 - #4 I'd be extremely surprized, so indexing is the only way for us mere mortals.

Are Inflationary Expectations Deflating?

Wed, 28 May 2008 08:41:19 -0400

You mean the real inflation rate or the faux numbers which don't include food, energy, housing, falling dollar, etc?

Blowing the Bubble Bigger

Sun, 25 May 2008 08:43:28 -0400

Fear and pain are great motivators, maybe we'll get it right with enough of both.

My Top 5 Alternative Energy Stocks - and 10 Honorable Mentions

Tue, 13 May 2008 19:44:29 -0400

Sirfisup,

Not sure what you mean about large land requirements, just visited a large windfarm in northern NY located on agricultural land, the tower footprint is miniscule, approx 100ft square and didn't interfere with crops or grazing below.