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  • Morning Espresso US Edition 27.01.2014 Forex Bonds,Commodities


    • CBT to hold an emergency meeting Tuesday
    • DE Jan IFO Bus Clim 110.6 vs 109.5 prev, 110.0 exp
    • DE Jan IFO Curr Cond 112.4 vs 111.6 prev, 112.4 exp
    • DE Jan IFO Exp 108.9 vs 107.4 prev, 108.0 exp
    • ECB Draghi, Rates to remain low or lower for extended period
    • BoJ Gov Kuroda - Optimistic on growth, inflation outlook Rts

    Economic Data &Events

    • 23:50 Japan Trade balance total yen
    • 23:50 Japan Imports yy
    • 23:50 Japan Exports yy
    • 09:00 Germany Ifo expectations
    • 09:00 Germany Ifo current conditions
    • 09:00 Germany Ifo business climate
    • 12:30 Turkey Capacity utilisation
    • 12:30 Turkey Manufacturing confidence
    • 13:58 US US-Markit Svcs PMI
    • 15:00 US New home sales chg mm
    • 15:00 US New home sales-units mm

    Markets Today

    The calendar will be relatively light during NorAm session .Market will pay particular attention to the publication of US flash services PMI and US housing data .

    Market takes a breather after rollercoaster observed at the end of last week. Dollar was better bid in the morning retracing part of steep losses seen in last 72 hrs .CBRT Emergency meeting scheduled on Tuesday helped emerging currencies to regain some ground(TRY,MX,ZAR,PLN,HUF) . Equity markets are still trading defensively . Yields on core bonds market are trading at session highs going into NY open.

    Technical Overview

    EURUSD(1,3670)-rate was trading lower in Europe as dollar recovery gained some traction Short term outlook is positive above 1,3640 for a retest of Fibo resistance at 1,3740 .Sharp rejection from 1,3740 and inability to sustain gains above 1,37 may be worrying to bulls. At this stage pullbacks are still seen as buying opportunity however bulls may struggle to push rate decisively higher ahead of FOMC .Expect heavy battle in in 1,3640-1,3740 area .We stand aside for now

    (click to enlarge)

    USDJPY (102,75) -rate was higher in Europe as dollar recovery got additional boost from CBRT emergency meeting .Short term picture is negative below distant 102,85 .Technically speaking , rallies are seen as selling opportunity .Sharp rebound off 101,70 may point to a temporary halt of recent declines.We see a room for a retracement of recent slide .
    Big picture turned bearish on a daily close below 102,50 .Expect decent supply in 103,50/104,00 zone. Choppy action in 102,30-103,00 zone to dominate in coming hours

    (click to enlarge)

    NZD(0,8255)-Rate was trading sideways in Europe ,forming a short term base in the vicinity of 0,8220.Short term outlook is negative below 0,8280 however proximity of 0,82 may prompt bears to head for exit. We remain long from lvls around 0,8230 for a corrective push twds 0,8275/80 . Reconsider booking modest profits on upticks or trail stops up

    (click to enlarge)

    Jan 27 11:46 AM | Link | Comment!
  • US DEC Jobs Report Breakdown

    Fridays NFP rose only 74K dissapointing the markets expecting hefty jobs gains (med +200K)

    Unemployment rate fell from 7% to 6,7% the lowest level since 2008 .

    Severe weather conditions are cited as the main reason of temporary setback. Most of the economists do not see December data as the reversal of positive trend in US jobs market.

    Not all the losses can be blamed on bad weather( est.100 K) . Information sector shed 12K of jobs. Medical sector registered decline in employment for the second time in history .

    December data should not affect FED expectations of solid growth in US economy in coming months . FED is still expected to taper asset purchases at subsequent meetings .

    US economy is on well established recovery path. US labour market is expected to recover and reach pre -recession levels in coming months)


    Jan 12 11:49 PM | Link | Comment!
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