User 193167

Myriad Options on Alzheimers Disease

*ahem...

Gents, it's not a $41, $25 or $55 stock. For whatever reason, this discussion has failed to even recognize that they will sell ~$220M of diagnostic tests at ~85% margins this year!

The price is suppressed BECAUSE of the likely failure of Flurizan. The Street says 10% chance. If it fails, the burn goes down and the stock heads right up to $50+ (not a 12-month forecast). If it succeeds, the "run up over the last 2 years" (I still can't understand that statement given the PROFITABLE DIAGNOSTICS BUSINESS) will pale to the $70+ 12-mo price that would follow.

Think about this: when the stock pops after the top-line announcement, it will probably go up as the disaster scenario has clearly been priced in already. Then the shorts will be stuck covering thereby supporting the a new plateau.

And to those who haven't read the rest of the story...

Management has said that if 1) Flurizan fails and 2) the stock doesn't head north once the burn is gone, the Board has said there will be strong consideration (metrics and timing unannounced) for splitting the two businesses. They already did the tax analysis and it should be free to the shareholders. No doubt that scenario would result in a $50+ Myriad Diagnostics and a $6 Myriad Pharma companies.

Als, check out how many of the management team exercised when the stock hovered around $36. Then check out that when it bumped up ~$5, it was because T. Rowe and Fidelity INCREASED their positions.

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**A Scientific point...
The drug is the only profen that can be tolerated anywhere near the dose that shows an effect. Don't get me wrong, I'm not bullish on Flurizan. But that wasn't mentioned above.