Seeking Alpha

GadflyOnTheWall

GadflyOnTheWall
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View GadflyOnTheWall's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Make 70% A Year With Math [View article]
    Harry,

    Yes, I'm on the same page as Kenny; how would this strategy have done in the 2007 to 2009 time period? Even if you have to synthetically recreate the performance during that time period, it would be helpful in considering this strategy.

    Thanks

    Jon, the S&P 500 had a much greater drawdown than 30% in the 2007 to 2009 time period, so I imagine you had to dampen that by allocating a certain percentage of your portfolio to fixed income or GLD.
    May 29, 2014. 01:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Who Cares What Morgan Stanley Thinks? I'll Buy More On Pullbacks Anyway... [View article]
    When I was interviewing to become a broker (at Dean Witter, later purchased by Morgan Stanley), the first step was to take a math test. Ten people were seated around this table. Now, mind you, the test had really challenging questions like, if John had 10 apples and he sold 2, how many apples did he have left to sell. They gave us half an hour. Took me five minutes and I checked it twice to make sure these weren't trick questions. The guy next to me kept erasing and sighing. I was like, "you gotta be kidding." I never saw those 9 again. Then there was the telephone test with actors on the other side. First call was to get a client to sell his IBM stock in his portfolio ... so you explain to him that since our analyst had downgraded IBM from a BUY to a HOLD, that was really Wall St. talk to sell. Second call, you had to get a client to buy, so you explained to him that the analyst has a HOLD on the stock, so he should be holding this stock in his portfolio. The third was to get a client to SELL his IBM and buy another stock. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what they were looking for in this test. Aced it, ha ha. I met a lot of brokers (and investment advisors) in my career, and I wouldn't trust 99% of them to give me good investment advice.
    Apr 24, 2014. 11:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Who Cares What Morgan Stanley Thinks? I'll Buy More On Pullbacks Anyway... [View article]
    Having once worked for Morgan Stanley, I learned early in my career that negative analyst reports were great BUY signals and vice versa. Unfortunately, as a broker, I kept getting into trouble with management since I would call my clients with recommendations that were contrary to what the company was saying, so left the sell side to go the buy side.
    Apr 22, 2014. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Healthcare REITs With Mispriced Risk [View article]
    Brad, a friend of mine at the gym asked me what I thought of the contributors to Seeking Alpha. Well, my answer was, you need to analyze the analyst and his/her analysis. Some don't fit in with my thinking and some just simply make sense. Actually, I told him that I followed several, but that so far I have found one contributor that I really enjoy reading: that would be you. Thanks for the great analysis. I have a question: what are your thoughts on LTC?
    May 27, 2013. 04:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Picking An All-Star REIT Team To Defend Against Interest Rate Risk [View article]
    Brad,
    A few articles back you compared HTA's stock price chart with its total return chart, showing, of course a much smoother ride for their shareholders. My question is: where can access these total return charts? I would love to compare investments on a total return basis rather than the stock price charts that everyone seems to supply. Many times, they don't even adjust the charts on a big distribution so that the investment looks terrible and volatile.

    Thanks,
    Ric
    May 18, 2013. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Sound Investors Should Consider My 'Bond-Proxy REIT' Picking Strategy [View article]
    Brad, another excellent article. I learned more in this one article than in four years in the university. As for being bond-like, I hope not. I have never liked bonds, but I do have an allocation to bonds in my portfolio for stability and diversification. Real estate has an allocation in my portfolio as its own asset class. The difference between real estate and bonds is that real estate (if managed correctly) appreciates in value and can (if managed correctly) have an ever increasing payout. You cannot say this about bonds (unless you buy highly discounted bonds, in which case you are better off having a bond expert do that kind of analysis ... Jeff Gundlach anyone). Again, thanks for the article.
    Dec 17, 2012. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are The Voyages Of The Starship REIT [View article]
    Isn't comparing regular stock payouts vs. REIT payouts comparing apples and oranges? I think Brad could explain this better than I. REITs, because of the rule of a 90% payout of earnings, has its payout valued differently. But that aside, I would rather have a compounding monthly (or a monthly income if that is required) than a quarterly dividend. Plus I like the consistency and stability of Realty Income. For example, in 2008, the total return of O was down only 8.15%, while INTC was down 43% and CAT was down 36%. WM was up 4.74%, so it did well during that period. However, this year (YTD to 11/30), total return for O is positive 21%, with WM a positive 3.91%. On the other side, INTC's total return this year is negative 15.73% and CAT is negative 3.75%. The future for O is more predictable than the future for INTC and CAT. Intel's management skill in maneuvering its industry space is more suspect than Realty Income's, as they managed somehow to miss the SmartPhone revolution. Mind you, they are still much better than the likes of a Hewlett Packard or a Yahoo. Nuff said.
    Dec 12, 2012. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are The Voyages Of The Starship REIT [View article]
    Jewels56,

    However, it is interesting that in 2007-2008, VNQ fell 53% (its largest holding SPG may have contributed greatly to that, since it fell 46% in that time period); however, O in the same time period fell only 5% (these are total return numbers).

    So those who are risk averse will have to consider this when filling out our asset allocation utilizing REITs as our proxy for our real estate asset class.

    Ric
    Dec 1, 2012. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are The Voyages Of The Starship REIT [View article]
    Brad, the problem with Ivy League diplomas is that the universities teach a certain doctrine that doesn't make for good practical analysis. I once had an MBA manager who gave me a 1 million share order to sell a certain stock out of the mutual fund portfolio that he managed. He got upset at me because I couldn't sell all the shares at once. I pointed out to him that the average daily volume on that stock was 500,000 shares and if I dumped the whole thing in the market, it would kill the stock. I sometimes get called in by venture capitalists to analyze the business plan of their planned investments because, unlike them, I am not an Ivy League/Stanford MBA and I look at these things from an on the ground point of view.
    Nov 21, 2012. 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are The Voyages Of The Starship REIT [View article]
    Regarded,

    Do not be pissed off. Having worked in the financial industry for more than 30 years, I can tell you that most analysts in the industry do not know or even come close to the analysis that Brad provides us. The reason: most analysts have to be biased in their analysis in order to keep their jobs and the brokerage industry (I learned this early in my career) is designed to not make you money, but rather to make themselves money, as well as their institutional clients. Thank goodness, we have Brad on OUR side.
    Nov 20, 2012. 11:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simon Says: Bring It On. I Think He's Wrong [View article]
    Hmmm. The comments by the big bad REITs remind me of what happens to empires and dynasties. "We can't make a mistake" translates to "This is a can't lose deal" to "this is a no-brainer". Arrogance brings down empires. It can bring down REITs as well.
    Oct 30, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Monthly Dividend Stocks With 4.2% To 16% Yields [View article]
    Todd, a 16% yield and a 29% annual return for the last 2 years sounds scary. What are the risks with ARR?
    Thanks
    Oct 24, 2012. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs To Hold Forever, Most Likely [View article]
    Brad, I always read your very informative articles, and they often provide the basis for my REIT investments. Do you have an opinion on GOV, the government landlord? Also, Colin, am interested in a few of your overseas ideas. Thanks.
    Oct 23, 2012. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inverse VIX ETN IVO Terminates And IVOP Fills The Void [View article]
    This reminds me when derivatives were first introduced.
    First question to me was: Do you understand this stuff?
    My answer: Unfortunately, yes. Lots of air.
    Second question to me was: Should I get into derivatives?
    My answer: Only if you are creating them.
    So these VIX ETFs are ETFs based on something that is there, but isn't there. Like I said. Lots of air.
    Sep 24, 2011. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Plus Growth Equals 'The Best of Both Worlds' [View article]
    Excellent article. This is a discussion that I've had with other investors. Question: the illustrations that you show comparing the individual securities to the S&P 500. Where can I access this app? My issue is that charts out there do not show dividend adjusted prices, thereby giving a false illustration of what an investor could have made in a given period of time (from your article, I believe your app is showing the dividend adjusted return of both the stock and the S&P 500, not in chart form, but at least in numbers). Thanks again for a great article. I am now becoming a follower.
    Sep 17, 2011. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
53 Likes