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Wooster

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  • Zillow Housing Data Portends A Housing Downturn [View article]
    It's not the people in college who are important, it's those who have just graduated. I seem to remember that for decades the median age of first time homebuyers had been at 30-31 for decades. If that were to trend up it would be a good indicator, but I think it was still 31 last year. Given the sample size of about 5.5 million, a trend up to 32 might be significant.
    Jul 30 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow Housing Data Portends A Housing Downturn [View article]
    Increased borrowing costs alone will push down prices in many markets. As for everything else, I don't really know.
    Jul 30 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    If you actually get the mortgage payments then wall street would rather hold the loans. If you don't get the mortgage payments then you get the house anyway, hopefully at a decent ltv. Managing a portfolio of sfr is a damn nightmare that requires big overhead.
    Jul 29 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Homes Sales For June Plummet [View article]
    Lennar is moving back in to apartments. They used to have a huge multifamily wing, but they moved out of it awhile ago and then sold LNR. Of all the major homebuilders, Lennar definitely has the most experience with multifamily. They were always more diversified in real estate than the other builders. That said, they are probably doing so because the first time buyer is largely absent from the housing market these days.
    Jul 28 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are We In A Housing Bubble? [View article]
    a paradigm shift of people accepting a home as merely a shelter would likely crash the market because the rental yield just won't be there for investors. Housing values will be based on cap rates and people who can't afford to buy a house also can't afford to pay a rent that provides a decent return to investors at these current valuations.
    Jun 25 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The Housing Recovery? [View article]
    Unfortunately, i'm very familiar with what happens to land on the way down. While doing acquisitions for a fund (around late 2006), I had a $50 million pipeline of land deals (acquisition cost) that theoretically would have sold for $150 million when entitled. Within the first few months of 2007 the land residual for housing use was negative. The fund got out about $10 million during the bloodbath and that was only because a few sites reverted to industrial land value. I remember thinking that if the market holds another 3 months I'll make $10 million. Nope. Nada.
    May 7 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The End Of The Housing Recovery? [View article]
    Wall St should consider price appreciation in houses when it comes to homebuilding stocks. Raw or entitled land is bought 1-3 years ahead of building permits or sales orders. That land is bought (if done so prudently) based on housing values at that time - backsolved from sales price to land residual. If the market appreciates then the profit is generally higher. Most homebuilders do not underwrite price appreciation but do underwrite cost appreciation. Assuming all other things equal or no weird F ups, any appreciation that occurs from the time you strike your land deal to the time you strike your home sale is all additional profit. Of course this happens in reverse on the way down should the market falter.
    May 7 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales Data Show Further Deterioration In The Housing Market [View article]
    yes, people delay for years the biggest purchase they make in their life because it was a little too cold one weekend. A few big storms disappears in the enormous housing market. I'm sick of hearing it as an excuse. It's all middle class income, availability of credit, and investors.
    Apr 23 07:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Existing Home Sales Data Show Further Deterioration In The Housing Market [View article]
    It rained like twice, this year in California. The places that saw the most rains are also a drop in the bucket for the housing market. It's a nonsense comment.
    Apr 23 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are So Many Homebuyers Backing Out Of Their Contracts? [View article]
    You register to make a comment and then you spout this nonsense?
    Feb 25 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are So Many Homebuyers Backing Out Of Their Contracts? [View article]
    I did a few stint with big homebuilders and the ones focused on first-time and move-up buyers kind of like to have can rates this high. They just want to get someone into that house and they think that a high (but not too high, obviously) can rate means they are pushing to get people into those homes. If you've been to new home communities and have actually gotten past "just looking" with their sales people, you already know that it's a hard sell tactic and always a pushy situation. They want you signing that contract and visiting their options showroom with whatever is left in your max loan amount. Cancellation rates for resales, on the other hand, are probably a more negative indicator.
    Feb 24 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    All this talk about the cold weather is funny. The South and West regions (Sunbelt), account for 75%-80% of new home construction. In the vast majority of metros that make up that region, there was only a few days here and there of cold weather with the notable ones being in Jan, not Dec. Regardless, the really cold areas are only 20$ of the market for new home construction, so it's probably something other than the weather.
    Feb 21 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Homebuilders are still coming off huge lows in production and 2014 could be a better year than 2013 and it would still suck compared with 2003-2006. It's still not a hard needle to move, but their valuations do seem to suggest tremendous growth. I'm avoiding them at these prices.
    Feb 19 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    Um, that's not how the math works.
    Feb 4 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    California builders are in the unique position of having absurdly low resale supply as competition and the builders can also offer homes at or under the resale values given the low cost structure of being a big builder. I would imagine that California sales remain strong as long as these conditions persist. I'm sure it's the same case in several other markets.
    Feb 4 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
230 Comments
213 Likes