Seeking Alpha

Wooster

Wooster
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Wooster's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Are So Many Homebuyers Backing Out Of Their Contracts? [View article]
    You register to make a comment and then you spout this nonsense?
    Feb 25 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are So Many Homebuyers Backing Out Of Their Contracts? [View article]
    I did a few stint with big homebuilders and the ones focused on first-time and move-up buyers kind of like to have can rates this high. They just want to get someone into that house and they think that a high (but not too high, obviously) can rate means they are pushing to get people into those homes. If you've been to new home communities and have actually gotten past "just looking" with their sales people, you already know that it's a hard sell tactic and always a pushy situation. They want you signing that contract and visiting their options showroom with whatever is left in your max loan amount. Cancellation rates for resales, on the other hand, are probably a more negative indicator.
    Feb 24 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    All this talk about the cold weather is funny. The South and West regions (Sunbelt), account for 75%-80% of new home construction. In the vast majority of metros that make up that region, there was only a few days here and there of cold weather with the notable ones being in Jan, not Dec. Regardless, the really cold areas are only 20$ of the market for new home construction, so it's probably something other than the weather.
    Feb 21 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market Is In Big Trouble [View article]
    Homebuilders are still coming off huge lows in production and 2014 could be a better year than 2013 and it would still suck compared with 2003-2006. It's still not a hard needle to move, but their valuations do seem to suggest tremendous growth. I'm avoiding them at these prices.
    Feb 19 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    Um, that's not how the math works.
    Feb 4 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    California builders are in the unique position of having absurdly low resale supply as competition and the builders can also offer homes at or under the resale values given the low cost structure of being a big builder. I would imagine that California sales remain strong as long as these conditions persist. I'm sure it's the same case in several other markets.
    Feb 4 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Government's New Home Sales Report For November Is Not Credible [View article]
    Yardfarmer, bringing the vocab.
    Dec 31 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Overpays For Shapell, But Reports Blowout Preliminary Earnings [View article]
    Exactly. The Shapell assets are mostly pretty well-located. And it's great to get Shapell/S&S out of the way. They ruined Porter Ranch with their crappy product.
    Nov 14 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Overpays For Shapell, But Reports Blowout Preliminary Earnings [View article]
    I'm quite familiar with Shapell's land holdings and while I think Toll probably overpaid for lots I can tell you that Shapell had some irreplaceable land holdings that keep Toll building in good LA/OC locations for quite a long time. The per lot numbers definitely pencil out for move-up/luxury production homes in California. Unless the market tanks again, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.
    Nov 11 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Restructuring The Housing Industry: Deals Galore [View article]
    It seems like you are confusing construction with development. Weyerhaeuser's homebuilding group is not a construction company or even a GC. It's a real estate development company that focuses on developing housing and the marketing and sales of the homes. The construction is done by construction companies who are hired either by Weyerhaeuser or Weyerhaeuser's GC as a sub-contractor. Big construction companies rarely own the project, design the product, or market and sell it. This is just a land purchase for strategic acquisition of lots/market penetration with probably some added value of additional industry competency and project management talent for Tri Pointe. The construction companies that build for even the largest homebuilders are rarely that big at all. The biggest ones I have seen are usually the earthmoving and landscape guys (like Valley Crest). The other big names in homebuilding are the construction products: window companies, flooring, truss manufacturers, etc.

    But calling these guys construction companies and thinking it messes more with the little construction companies is not really framing it correctly. It's just two developers entering into a land transaction.
    Nov 5 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Blackstone Turning On Housing? [View article]
    Also, many of the pools of mortgages and homes repossessed by Fannie and Freddie were only offered to a few well-connected accredited investors and becoming accredited was a rigged process.
    Oct 31 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Blackstone Turning On Housing? [View article]
    Where did the total amount of cash deals come from in my comment? I was commenting on Jason's comment about Blackstone, et al being the market. Regarding all cash deals, however, it's estimated that only 35% of those are investors. How many of those investors are big funds? I don't know the answer. Perhaps over a short timeframe in select markets where big investors are active (e.g. Vegas, Florida) you'll see the market being nudged around by big investors, but in general the overall market is too big to be under the thumb of big money investors for any long period of time. Maybe that's why it's a good time to stay on the sidelines and let some more of the mess shake out. If you were looking for a home in the last year you had mega competition: lots of cash buyers, several years of pent up demand, absurdly low borrowing rates, and very little supply. If you bought, you probably overbid, payed too much, and didn't get the ideal home.

    I think we just took a breather from the big crash and the investors who didn't score sweet inside deals, didn't buy wisely, or missed the early years of bank panic will all be faced with the ramifications of overestimating the strength of the "recovery".
    Oct 30 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Blackstone Turning On Housing? [View article]
    Blackstone (with its $7.5 billion dollars in purchases) and the other hedge funds are not the market. If you have something like 4.2 million SFR's sold at an average price of $250k you have a market with over a trillion dollars of yearly sales. Blackstone and all hedge funds combined are only a drop in the bucket and do very, very little to move the market. What they are is probably more of a market signal, if anything.
    Oct 30 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales For September: The Real Decline Is Worse Than The Headline Reports [View article]
    Awesome. I'd clarify that it's median income/job creation. Without new jobs, the market will eventually crash.
    Oct 23 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Begins To Unravel On Fear Of Higher Interest Rates [View article]
    There is possibly a fundamental shortage of homes. The builders are not building to address that macroeconomic question that's really only useful to academics and talking heads. The builders are building to meet demand from homebuyers who can afford a home. If more people could afford, there would be more production. Whether housing supply is in balance with population is irrelevant. Housing supply is balancing itself with the demand of those who can afford it.
    Oct 17 03:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
221 Comments
202 Likes