BerkeleyBob

22 Comments

    • Government Statistics: Perfecting the Art of Mass Deception [view article]
      The bottom line is we can have no rational policy if we start with false data. Social Security is indexed to cpi; since demographics can't be fudged, the cpi must be manipulated to slow down the increase in benefits. Whichever candidate gets elected is going to be forced to deliver sweat, tears, and higher taxes along with some very unpopular spending cuts. Aug 25 12:07 PM
    • Giving Cramer the Benefit of Sirius Doubt [view article]
      Love the product, but sold out my small position in Sirius long ago at a slight gain. Don't know why so many are so passionate, but I am very leery of any common stock in a company subject to heavy government "help" (FRE, FNM, anyone?). The FCC's capitulation to the NAB is similar to some of the stuff going on with RIAA and internet and satellite radio royalties--but Cramer, whom I take with large helpings of salt, is not to blame in this toxic mess. Mel Karmazin strikes me as smart and honest, but Mozillo sounded pretty good until the roof collapsed. There is a lot of information and opinion out there, but the mantra is Do your own homework
      BerkeleyBob       Aug 24 05:05 PM
    • Will a 7% Mortgage Threat Doom Fannie and Freddie? [view article]
      I sold off positions in Citigroup and Freddie Mac long ago, didn't like what I was seeing. FRE and FNM are not worth buying at present levels. They are hybrids and subject to the whims of government. Recall the investment banks whined mightily about unfair competition when things were good. The basic notion of creation of a secondary market in mortgages is good policy if it frees up lenders to make more realistic loans but that wasn't happening, was it? I have no confidence in the present and past leadership of the Fed or this administration because of the disconnect between any sane fiscal policy and realistic monetary policy. Plenty of blame to spread around, but the bottom line is shareholders in either GSE are not going to see daylight and the public loses. Aug 21 01:28 PM
    • Credit Crisis Review: ARMed for Failure [view article]
      As I recall, it was former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan who hailed the ARM as being pro-consumer. In fact, it was a massive shift of risk of future interest increases from lenders who were locked into fixed low interest rate loans. The basic policy aim was to encourage home ownership. The creation of a secondary market in mortgages was free up lenders to make more loans. The S&L bailout and the present housing problem have in common lax regulation, bad underwriting and appraisal practices and a "rescue" from a government which had played a large role in creating the issue to begin with, at the expense of the tax payer. Although individual borrowers may have made some bad and unrealistic commitments, the present "fix" in the housing bill is to allow the lenders to swap out of sub-prime loans into a fixed to the cost of $300 billion by taking only a slight "haircut" of 20% of the loan amount, with no real guarantee that the homeowner will be any more able to make a fixed mortgage payment as long as the economy as a whole is declining. Aug 04 01:09 PM
    • California, New York Facing Fiscal Crises, Cuts Inevitable [view article]
      There is plenty of fault to find with both the legislature and the executive on the chronic structural deficit. California (and one other state) has a unique requirement of a 2/3 vote requirement for tax increases or to approve the budget. Voters have approved amendments to the constitution which sets spending preferences. A small minority in the legislature can block approval but offers no suggestions as to cuts which haven't already been taken. The finance of education at all levels is impacted by a property tax initiative, which primarily benefits large corporations (Granny can defer property taxes on her cottage until death). The governor's executive order is more of a gimmick than a realistic approach to the hard work of reducing tax preferences. It's a shame the Democratic candidate, Phil Angelides, got defeated--he is smart and tough enough to clear up the budget mess. What doesn't help is tired anti-govenment, lassez-faire rhetoric and a frank recognition that the fiscal relationship between the feds, the states and the localities has changed, and the misery of a lack of fiscal discipline by the feds has spread down the chain.
       Aug 02 06:21 PM
    • What the Sirius XM Radio Future May Hold [view article]
      Have enjoyed the ongoing discussion re Sirius/XM. Sold a small position in Sirius long ago, but have remained a subscriber. I am willing to pay $13.00/mo. to listen to good music with no stinking commercials. Terrestial radio is a dying model exactly because 30% of air time is ads, and because there is no incentive to reach smaller audiences (classical, ambient, reggae, jazz, etc. etc.) I am getting so allergic to commercials that I am considering dropping my support for NPR affiliates because of the tin-cup rattling and "sponsorshipts&qu... which sound a lot like a commercial to me. Jul 31 03:40 PM
    • Separate Abusive Short Sellers from Those Who Play by the Rules [view article]
      In the absence of effective regulation, short sellers investigate and bring to light accounting irregularities and help assure an honest market. Short sellers pushed the likes of Tyco, Enron, World Com, etc. out of the window--they and their corrupt executives needed to fall. Although some past abuses have been legislatively and administratively corrected, part of the present credit crunch is due to lax underwriting, inflated ratings, and lack of transparency. Is there a fundmental difference between Enron's scams and the complex debt instruments peddled abroad and at enormous cost to America's reputation? Jul 16 01:19 PM
    • XM / Sirius: Cowen Sees Approval Soon [view article]
      I am a Sirius subscriber but long ago closed out my position in its stock. Good product, poor investment. The politicians and bureaucrats are far too influenced (indebted) to NAB and RIAA. I feel sorry for Mel Karmazin who had to put up with inept questioning and worse rhetoric from the House committee hearings on the merger. I doubt there will be much interest in the "minority" channel access required as a price tag... Jul 15 01:19 PM
    • Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
      Part of the hold-up on the Sirius merger is the lobbying influence of RIAA and NAB (terrestial radio). The former long ago exacted a very favorable royalty (none) deal; RIAA has been heavy handed in collecting from sattelite and internet radio as well as file sharing teenagers. I subscribe to Sirius, and donate to local college radio and the local NPR. Both are superior in content and free of commercials and lowest common demoninator programming. Terrestial radio is a failing format. We do need to compensate artists equitably, however. Jul 15 01:11 PM
    • DJIA Returns Ranked by President Since 1929 [view article]
      I have been pondering Clinton's term in office. True, he presided over a rising market, which makes everyone look like a genius. His contribution is that he did nothing to make matters worse, and his fiscal policy was essentially sound. There is a profound disconnect between fiscal and monetary policy at present and apparently both the legislative and executive branches have an irresistable impulse to externalize the true costs by pushing them off on future generations... Jul 07 01:05 PM
    • Investing for Retirement - Cramer's Mad Money (7/3/08) [view article]
      I don't buy everything Cramer has to say, but I credit him with helping me be a better investor. I like this site, because it provides a variety of opinion and most of the posts do not slime or engage in ad hominem arguement, unlike the unmoderated and unedited comment boards at Yahoo finance. Jul 04 01:42 PM
    • Openness and Transparency: The Basics of Financial Regulation [view article]
      Excellent general discussion of the policy and politics of regulation. It is important to examine the premises and not simply rubber stamp the prevailing anti-regulation, lassez-faire rhetoric of the present bunch in Washington. On balance, the past 8 years have not been good for Main Street, Wall Street or our international reputation. Jun 23 02:53 PM
    • Is Live Nation's Music Strategy Too Risky? [view article]
      The alternative some musicians are trying is direct sales of CD at gigs or on their own websites. (On the latter, MP3 is feasible.) Some artists are going to vinyl releases... Digital distribution is the genie out of the bottle. Long ORCD. BerkBob Jun 22 11:53 AM
    • "Rubinomics" Is Back, Part Two [view article]
      Excellent ananysis. Even prior to the present administration, there was a considerable disconnect between fiscal and monetary policy. The spiralling costs of our misadventure in Iraq represent misdirected resources. We get a grip on $150 per barrell oil by encouraging short and long term energy replacements and not by ethanol from corn. Jun 17 11:16 AM
    • Sirius/XM Merger: What Is 'Noncommercial' Satellite Radio Programming? [view article]
      I bailed on Sirius stock long ago, remain a subscriber. Don't know what the FCC is thinking, the real beaf is that historically, terrrestial radio got the right to broadcast without performance royalty. The record industry has been busy lobbying and jerking around internet radio (not feasible for cars). Don't think MP-3 is preferable to satellite and I remain willing to pay for commercial free music. Jun 16 12:17 PM
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