Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Factzplz's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Crown Media Could Be The Top Holiday Stock For Christmas Season [View article]
    I own CRWN expecting that soon Hallmark cards management will demonstrate the integrity and honesty it professes in its programming.

    I salute the questioner on the conference call for his moral and sound business questions of CRWN management.

    Hallmark cards owns 90%. In July 2013 Hallmark sent out an unsolicited press release that it would, paraphrasing, buy CRWN after January 2014. CRWN is pissing away money on all the costs of being a public company, millions each year - why this expense for no benefit?

    CRWN came public in 1999 at $20. Hallmark could take it back at $6, $200 million, make a profit, + take in the $1.6 billion loss carry-forward to offset taxes from the highly profitable card business.

    On the conference call CRWN management pretends it never heard of Hallmark cards, has never spoke to its CEO, and does not have a clue as to what is going on. I do not believe CRWN management.

    Can anyone explain why a company would continue to waste millions each year and not consolidate the $1.6 billion tax loss?
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here Are 2 Cheap, High-Yield Dividend Stocks I'm Buying Right Now [View article]
    For ag stocks, I am very concerned for farming, not the giant corporate guys, but real farmers. The price of corn now at $3.35 per bushel = the 18 oz. box of Kellogg's corn flakes, selling at $3.80 has $0.05 of corn. For all those complaining about food inflation it is not caused by greedy farmers.

    And prices for wheat, cotton, etc. all say slowing sales for DE.
    Oct 12, 2014. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparative Analysis Reveals Undervalued Asset In Antares' Pipeline: First And Only Testosterone Auto-Injector [View article]
    Excellent article. Thank you.

    But at $1.87 today, this is such a disconnect between price and potential. Hopefully, the officers will go on a buying binge to properly set the expectations.

    Most importantly, we investors need some dramatic sales, profits (or less losses for now), and some collaboration payments.
    Sep 29, 2014. 07:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • George Soros Is Betting Against The Market And Why Investors Should Take Notice [View article]
    It seems a lot of "2 & 20" posts are confused.

    It is NOT 20% of the profit, it is 20% of the profit ABOVE the S&P.

    So if the S&P is up 10%, and Soros is up 15%, he gets 20% of the 5% above the S&P, or 1% additional.

    The 2% is equivalent to mutual funds expense ratio, and actually lower than many mutual funds.
    Sep 13, 2014. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shutting Shutterstock Out Of The Portfolio For This High-Yielding Emergeing Oil Play [View article]
    I agree with your thesis that EMES is a good, actually a GREAT investment, as I expect the earnings and dividend will show the target price in the table is ridiculously low. By the end of 2015 and into 2016 EMES should be running at a $15 dividend rate - so what price is that worth?

    Assuming a 5% yield is "acceptable" for a company with a 40% ROE, projected sales profits up 500% in two years, being the industry leader, then moving into 2016, just 16 months away, $15 / .05 = $300.

    The new contracts have a 10% price increase + escalators, and are on a Take or Pay basis - which add to the probability that my projection is correct, and analyst will be increasing their estimates. All production is presold, except for what is heldback for higher spot market prices.

    There are only three (3) major players, and new mines are hard to find, hard to permit, and hard to get railcars. Since Wisconsin is the cheese, beer, brats, and sand capital, EMES has a dominant posititon. Minnesota has a two-year moratorium on new mines.

    What is interesting is that one year ago the six analysts that follow EMES projected the average income for 2015 would be $3.60 per share - but now the average is projected to be $7.05 (which is what you used for the table), with a range of $5.50 to $9. My estimate is $12 for calendar 2015. When will the analysts start upgrading earnings?

    EMES by this time next year will have over 12 million tons of annual capacity (the largest in the industry), versus 2.5 million sold in 2013 - a 500% increase. This production is already in the works to come online.

    Better yet, negotiations are proceeding for 4 mines, though the company will use discipline and not overpay. Plus it is working with its venture partner for a "major acquisition..."

    5 possible announcements, 2,500 railcars scheduled for delivery in November when the first new mine opens, a second mine in Q1, and a third by June(ish)... with 10,000+ railcars (versus 2,800 on 12-31-13).

    The economics are fundamentally and incredibly sound. The cost of a well is, on average, $7 million. Add $200,000 for sand and the oil/gas production is 30% to 50% greater. Drillers cannot afford to NOT use sand - and EMES has the highest grade sand. And competing products to sand are 7-12 times more expensive, and non-competitive (Carbo Ceramics' stuff).

    Perhaps Baird should have listened to the conference call...
    The Baird guy downgrades EMES at $29, then upgrades at $67, missing a 131% gain. Guess this is his annual Autumn EMES downgrade. Having had a Baird account, this seems way too similar to the old Baird game of downgrading so clients could get in cheaper, then change the rating and watch the stock pop.

    In case you missed it, this is Cramer's August 21 interview with the EMES CEO:
    (4 minutes - preceded by 15 second annoying ad )

    Since Baird's 12-month price target is $132, with the dividend increasing to $10 by this time next year, it seems he got this wrong... again. Hopefully Baird will downgrade him to Unemployed

    Did I mention 5 potential announcements?

    As you positioned your trade, EMES is fundamentally strong oil industry investment, and not a driller, or a spec plays as my ABCAF awaiting Canadian approval for its frac sand, or my ABHD, which is working on cleaning and recycling fracking water (plus stormwater and heavy metals).

    Do you know any other company that will have sales, profits, and dividends increase 500% in 18-24 months? If you do, please post the name(s).

    Thank you.
    Sep 8, 2014. 01:29 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Realizing A Nightmare [View article]
    A few year back those "brilliant" CNBC managers on Fast Money had CHK going bankrupt, and would not buy it at $5 - whoops. Countless SA posts belabored how CHK's debt was at bankrupting levels (even though dozens of companies had much higher levels) - whoops.

    And now, it is not oily enough. I drive looking thru the windshield to where the future is. Some as PalmDesertRat keep looking in the rear view mirror to determine the future, and today the view is out the side window to where Anadarko is...

    This debate sounds like this year's winner of the Kentucky Derby - California Chrome. If you know the story, the two owners' partnership is DAP Racing - the acronym for "Dumb Ass Partners" which is what people called these two guys for buying the mother of California Chrome for $8,000 in a claiming race, and hired a "old codger" 77-year old trainer. With the wins at Kentucky Derby ($2 million) and Preakness ($1.5 million), and 2nd at Belmont ($280K), it seems to have paid off. Yah think?

    Looking thru my windshield at these thoroughbreds, EOG & APC, how much higher can their valuations go? You can call me a "DA" too, but mark your calendar for one year from today, and my wager is that %-wise, CHK will be the winner - and it will NOT be a photo finish.

    And my "claiming race" pick for the balance of this year, and 2015, is a dog-food contender ABHD, Abtech Industries, a spec play on cleaning up stormwater, and fracking water so it can be reused, cutting drilling costs, and being eco-responsible. It is all in the percentages, and my bet is that this colt has legs for a Triple Crown...

    Get your Quinella wagers in on CHK and ABHD...

    Call to the Post [trumpet]... "They are at the post. They're in. [bell] And they're off...."
    Aug 31, 2014. 09:17 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boom for fracking sand suppliers means gold for investors [View news story]
    For $65 a ton for sand, which yields 30%-50% more oil per well, you really think that drillers will stop using sand?

    Or, perhaps if semi trucks are electric then we will not need oil (trucks use 60% of our oil), then, of course we will not need as much sand.

    But until then, EMES still will double+ from here as it is in negotiations to acquire 4 other mines, plus one major acquisition. EMES sales were 2.5 million tons in 2013 and that will exceed 12 million tons in 2015 - plus the 10% price increase, its profits, and dividend should be huge.

    I would suggest to do some research, then make an informed investment decision.

    VERY long EMES, and SLCA, ABCAF, and ABHD as a play on cleaning up fracking water
    Aug 29, 2014. 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold To Silver Ratio Could Be Peaking [View article]
    How did you verify that "roughly 85% of the physical stock has been removed from the Shanghai Futures Exchange..."?

    How many ounces were there to begin?
    How many months has this removal taken (1 month? 1 year? 5 years?)
    Where did it go?
    Did it go to other exchanges that are less manipulated and less dishonest than a Chinese exchange?
    If 85% of the gold is gone, what are the gold contract volumes on the Shanghai Exchange - a chart would be great! (should show an 85% decline, if not, why not?)
    What has happened to other commodities on the Shanghai Exchange?

    Why did a Futures Exchange actually have a physical commodity in its possession, when that does not happen elsewhere?

    Just some basic questions to validate the link, which on the surface seems to NOT have any credibility
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy U.S. Silica Holdings Now For Explosive Potential Returns [View article]
    I have to believe the author meant as dry humor the statement, "...I really don't have much reason to think this business will have any future success." I am also quite shocked that so many comments show so little understanding of the frac sand industry, and why it has incredible upside potential.

    I own 4x more EMES than these my other holdings combined of SLCA and HLCP. I also have ABCAF the largest Canadian gravel producer awaiting permit for a frac sand mine, and ABHD a speculative water treatment company that filters out 99.9% of oil/gas from produced well water, so it can be reused.

    The correct type of sand, found primarily in Wisconsin, also in Minnesota, part of northern Illinois, and part of Texas, increases well production by 30-50%.

    A new pressure technique uses 4x the amount of sand.

    To answer the issue of what percentage of wells use sand, there are two approaches. At the Chesapeake Energy annual meeting in June, I asked the CEO if CHK was using the 4x method. The reply was it depends on the formation - some use no sand, and some use the 4x methodology, and everything in between.

    The best way to look at this issue is that the percentage of wells using sand depends on the availability of sand. If a driller cannot get sand, then his % of wells using it will be smaller. So if the number is 20% that is because, in general, that is all the sand that is available.

    Consider, currently EMES, SLCA, and HCLP are sold out for the next four (4) - and that includes the new mines coming online. New contracts are on a "Take or Pay" basis. Prices are being raised by 10%-20% (SLCA put thru a 20% price increase on non-fracking sand effective July 1).

    SLCA will double its capacity this year from 5 to 10 million tons
    EMES will quintuple its capacity from 2.5 to 12 million tons
    HCLP will increase capacity from 4.2 to 6.8 million tons by year end

    Contrary to a comment above, "I don't see how they can keep printing money like this without competition coming in." Well, competition is not going to happen for several reasons:
    1. Fracking sand is difficult to find as it is primarily in WI, plus MN, IL and TX
    2. It needs to be accessible to rail lines
    3. Permitting takes 2 years for local, county and state
    4. Construction takes another year
    5. Minnesota has a two year moratorium on new sand mining
    6. There are only 3 major players - EMES, SLCA, HCLP plus a few small operations
    7. Reliability of supply is critical - EMES has 4,500 railcars, and by mid-2015 will have 10,000 railcars - which smaller players cannot get the railcars, or afford them
    8. Quality of sand is also critical that it is sorted and dried properly

    Though I own SLCA and HCLP my focus is on Emerge, current price $119 – my yearend target $140 ($180 in one year)

    · The comment on the MLP being difficult for taxes is not really so, given all the MLPs that are available. But only HCLP and EMES are sand MLPs. I own EMES because the dividend in 2014 will be $5 – expected to be near $10 in 2015, and $16-$20 in 2016

    · EMES two-year price target? What will a stock paying a $16 dividend be worth? With a 6% yield the price will be $266

    · Unless America stops fracking, profits are predicable because all supply is presold for next four years – even with tripling its capacity

    · Acquisition news could push the stock up faster as profits will accelerate as EMES has four potential small mines to roll-up (which eliminates the two year permitting process), plus its venture capital partner is looking to make another acquisition.

    · Leading fracking sand producer in efficiency and largest profit margins because of the efficient operations

    · Fracking sand allows drillers to get up to 30-50% more oil per well for a nominal cost – so demand will not go away

    · EMES has the highest grade Northern White Sand which is premium priced

    · Sand is not reused – once shoved down an oil well it is there forever

    · EMES sold 2.5 million tons in 2013, will increase to 12 million ton run-rate by mid 2015 – a 5x increase in sales rate in 18 months - which may go higher if the acquisitions are made

    · 12 million tons annual capacity will make it the largest producer in North America

    · Completely sold out of all production to mid 2015 when 5th new mine coming online

    · In last seven months increased long-term contracts from 1 million tons to 8 million tons annually, with new contracts on hold until new mines operational

    · Number of railcars hauling sand was 2,800 at end of 2013, will increase to over 10,000+ railcars by mid 2015 (which would be a 400% profit increase)

    · Price increases of 10% is in effect, and all contracts have escalator clauses

    · Demand is increasing as new drilling technique uses 4x the amount of sand = 4x the demand

    · New mines are tough to find, tougher to find near railroad line, tougher to get city, county, state permits

    · EMES mines have a 25 year life

    · Drillers switching from other products to Northern White Sand (Carbo Ceramics, “CRR”, sells ceramic “sand”, stock has fallen from $156 to $103)

    · Do not hold more than 100 EMES shares in an IRA to avoid taxable IRA income, and when dividend exceeds $10, then sell half

    · Do you know of any other company that will have sales & profits grow 5x in 18 months? If so, please, Please, PLEASE let me know !!!

    Hope this helps.
    Aug 19, 2014. 11:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Summer Of 2007? (Video) [View article]
    Excuse me, but was there supposed to be a video link attached? I cannot find it. Thank you.
    Aug 18, 2014. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demand For Sand Offers 25%+ Total Return Potential [View article]
    Thanks for a good article, but I offer three "adjustments" as to why EMES has a bunch more upside than you mentioned...

    Difference in railcars: More cars = more sales = more profits

    You said, "...Emerge owns 4,700 rail cars with plans to increase to 6,400 within the next year. "
    But the CEO said, "But we’re going to need to be at 8,000 cars basically by spring of 2015 when this last plant comes on and then frankly if we move ahead with yet another plant that we’ve talked about in concept at least you can do the numbers we’re going to need over 10,000 cars when that point comes on.”

    Sales potential too conservative:

    You said, "...should result in 20% distribution growth through at least the end of 2015."
    The CEO said, " at right at 12 million tons of capacity which will make us certainly the leading we believe frac sand supplier in the industry.” With another follow on statement for profits as one mine is brought online by yearend, " and then there will be a marked improvement in tons and the bottom-line.”

    You did NOT mention another potential blockbuster advantage for EMES with acquisitons:

    From the call, What are they "excited" about?
    1) "...this is driving us to work closely with Insight Equity [which owned 7.2 million shares, roughly 30% of EMES stock] to look at the next expansion and we’re excited about that and moving forward in that direction..." and

    2) "...we’re mentioning the fifth plant in particular is because we think it has a high probability of success, in other words we think its past the point now where it’s going from unrealistic to realistic," and

    3) "...there are other opportunities that are at an earlier stage but the probability of them becoming real is increasing as the months go on and we’re hoping that we can add even more news about capacity expansions in the future.”
    Aug 11, 2014. 09:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Uncovering Billions From 3 Roaring Shale Plays [View article]
    Good article except the inaccurate rehash of too much debt comments.
    CHK does NOT have a scary level of too much debt that you toss out an undocumented scare, "Watch out for the debt levels..."

    What is there to watch out for?

    See Page 34 of the latest presentation:
    5% - Avg rate
    5.4 years - Avg maturity

    CHK is just 1 notch off of investment grade!
    If the rating agencies are on the verge of upgrading (with the recent debt reductions / repurchases / restructuring) why are you so alarmed?

    Debt is bad only if there are no assets to back it (credit card debt for a vacation vs. a mortgage for your home). CHK has 19,000 net sq. miles of leaseholds, and arguably the largest and best reserves.

    CHK just rolled out billions of debt by 5 years at a 2% lower rate. My guess is that with rates as low as they are today, it will try do the same, with the 2017 debts. And if it does not, so what, by 2017 - 3 years - it will have generated roughly $5 billion of free cash to repay it.

    Also, look at Devon (NYSE: Devon was founded in 1950, nine years before McClendon was born. It has 28% debt to capital, a fraction of the oil/gas reserves, and a net worth just 10% greater.

    There are dozens of oil companies with far higher debt levels and far less reserves, and even less potential. Why are you not writing about them? They are scary.

    When CHK is put into proper perspective with the industry, it is a FANTASTIC company, and why it is one of my largest positions (EMES is larger), and I sleep quite well knowing that Lawler is executing McClendon's vision.
    Aug 10, 2014. 08:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Finally Attains Its $10 Billion Target - This Is A Positive Milestone [View article]
    A so-so recap, but interesting.

    Two corrections:
    1) you omitted three 000s after the acreage
    2) CHK was nowhere near "came close to going bankrupt" - if you have been involved with CHK for 10 years you would have an understanding of the history, and that the current management is doing exactly what McClendon's stated plan was over a year before his departure.

    Lawler is doing an excellent job in executing McClendon's plan, but he could never accomplish this if the assets had not been discovered and held, giving CHK arguably the best, and largest, reserves of any U.S. driller
    Aug 7, 2014. 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything [View article]
    Somebody else said Credit Defult Swap prices were rising in Europe.

    Yet, every chart I find shows CDS flat to down.

    What is/are your source/s?

    Thanks in advance.
    Jul 26, 2014. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy Offers 50% Upside In 1 Year [View article]
    NO for retirement accounts - you are only allowed $1,000 of MLP "dividends" or your IRA/ 401K becomes taxable due to UBTI - Unrelated Business Taxable Income.

    IRS Publication 598 covers this.

    This becomes an extra expense and hassle for your income tax preparer to deal with this, as a separate Form 990-T must be filed.
    Jul 24, 2014. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment