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Factzplz

Factzplz
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  • The Mother Of All Margin Calls [View article]
    The currency loss/gain was 30% - but it did NOT happen in 5 minutes that would cause an instantaneous $3 trillion loss - it occurred over months. Firms, traders use stops, and corporations hedging sales eat the losses as part of risk strategy. And of course, there were $3 trillion of profits. Today I lost $100, tomorrow I make $100, so net I am even, yet my loss and gain are all part of your $3 trillion made or lost.

    Your chart is the first FRED chart I have ever seen without a header. How do we know what your chart represents or if it is even FRED produced. Photoshop is remarkable.

    And to say Gold has no counter party risk -- anybody taking bets that someday there will be an ETF that "blows up" when it's discovered the gold mysteriously disappeared?

    The chart appears to be a humungous amount - but look at the scale, and its relation to the US stock market, as one comparison, is only 1.3%. Hardly a reason to panic. Then again, for some reason, the scale is missing. Hmmmmm.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital: In Case You Forgot About The Lingering Risks [View article]
    9-1-1 - what is the problem?
    Send the police immediately to arrest these guys.
    What guys?
    The new CEO who has been on the job for one week.
    Sir, what is the crime?
    He didn't pay me a dividend.
    How much of a dividend were you supposed to get?
    I don't know, I just want some money - now!
    Sir, this is 9-1-1, please call the Psychic Hotline.
    Click.

    Not paying a dividend is NOT fraud and not a crime.

    ----------------------...
    And to the author - are absolutely certain there is no E&O insurance that will cover the cost of legal fees and losses? You could not make the claims and assertions in this article unless you knew, absolutely, there was no insurance.

    Please write another informative ARCP article showing how you know there is no E&O insurance. And, how you know there is no claw back.

    Enquiring minds want to know.

    And what happens if by the time this "goes to trial" which is usually years, and the stock price is higher than it was when "the loss" was incurred, then what? Ooooops! Sorry, your honor. Case dismissed.
    Apr 21, 2015. 06:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CFPB Just Made World Acceptance A Zero [View article]
    As a former bank president/director, and prior for several years with a finance company, it has been my belief that payday, title, and similar lenders should be put out of business. They are blood suckers on the poor. Your article clearly and quite eloquently supports my view, and that of anyone with Christian values.

    A finance company like WRLD can be, as we were, very profitable without deceptive practices. Our finance company rates were 18-22%, switched to simple interest, and the Wisconsin credit insurance rule was 80% of premiums had to be paid in claims, or the following year the rate was adjusted up/down depending on the loss ratio.

    Most of these offices are in the South were the words Consumer & Protection are never used in the same sentence. Since 28 offices are in Wisconsin being totally corrupt is not a criteria for success.

    And those horrible rules that are cried about - they are common sense that we used forever ago - and had less loan losses, and higher profitability. And actually, if they had been applied to mortgage lending in 2005-2007 the financial thievery would never have occurred nor the pain of the Great Recession.

    Honest people can make money.
    Look at it this way, would you want you daughter to go to a payday or title lender? Right, I didn't think so. So why should anybody?

    And about WRLD - it will survive, be a bit more ethical, and still be profitable - unlike the 96% of shares short that will have to cover.

    Maybe there is a God.
    Apr 18, 2015. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Removes Some Hot Money From Stock Market, Encourages Short Selling [View article]
    Allowing short selling of select stocks is not even remotely "encourages short selling."

    Definitely a sensational headline - but factually inaccurate.
    Plus your conclusions and interpretations read like Stansberry hype.

    I will NOT be following you.
    Apr 18, 2015. 10:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Should Cut Its CAPEX ... Again [View article]
    I am always amazed a people who have never run a company, much less one with $18 billion of (grossly understated) equity and 10,000 employees, pontificating of how to run a company. Paper does not refuse ink, and a click of a mouse publishes anything.

    If all things remain the same production will remain flat, yet CHK will end the year with 14-19 rigs, down from 64 in 2014, and 162 in 2012 - and we are to believe this is bad?

    CHK has $4 billion of cash, the largest reserves in the nation, will be cash flow neutral, and somehow it is "...proactive in the destruction of its balance sheet..." Really?

    I wish CHK would repurchase $3 billion of stock to get rid of the stock renters and whiners, and get the stock price up. Heck if CHK traded at just book value it would double. And we know how undervalued CHK's assets are, as last year it sold 3% of its NON-core land area for 50% of CHK's market value.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:05 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Gets A White Knight, But Again Slashes Distribution Rate [View article]
    What gives you ANY inclination that BBEP is going shopping for acquisitions?

    Those two statements are akin to visiting a patient who just came out of surgery for a double leg amputations, and saying to him, "Well, it looks like you're ready to enter the Boston Marathon!"

    Shareholder, myself included, just want BBEP to sit still, get healthy, get back to its previous financial healthy condition, and just pay dividends into the sunset. Crawl, walk, walk, walk, walk... Forget running.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Using Chesapeake As A Bet On Oil Prices [View article]
    How did "...but then you're faced with possibly having to issue equity and dilute shareholders." ever cross your mind, or warrant being written?

    CHK has never diluted shareholders thru the difficult times you mentioned. If you are AT ALL familiar with CHK then you know it is BUYING BACK 10% of its shares.

    Somehow you also did not read that it has $4 billion of cash, has a low industry debt/capitalization ratio, and will be cash flow neutral in this low oil/gas pricing market. And if you look at the debt maturity schedule little is due until 2017, and that is easily rolled out another 10 years.

    You also forgot to mention CHK's amazing efficiency, that by yearend, market conditions remaining as today, production will be up 1-3%, BUT it will end 2015 with just 19 drilling rigs, versus 64 in 2014, and 162 in 2012.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Serious And Double Down On Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    Actually, prior to XOM buying XTO, CHK was by far the #1 gas producer, XOM was #4, and XTO #5. The combination of XOM & XTO put CHK in the #2 position.

    What is also missed in all this discussion is CHK's roughly 20,000 sq. miles of oil/gas leases is by far the largest reserve area in the US, but which under the SEC rule these undrilled mega regions cannot be counted in reserves.

    Then compare Cimarex Energy (XEC) to CHK...
    XEC $10 billion market cap, $4 billion net worth, same debt/capitalization ratio, nominal lease area, $500 million of cash

    CHK $9.5 billion market cap, $18 billion net worth, 29% debt/capitalization ratio, largest reserves, $4 billion of cash

    If CHK traded at XEC's valuation it would be $67 per share. Something is truly whacky with either XEC (have you read any reports on XEC's over valuation?), or CHK ridiculously low valuation
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:37 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Is Sill Producing Too Much Despite Capital Cuts [View article]
    In 2012 CHK operated 164 rigs, in 2014 only 64 rigs, and by the end of 2015 it projects being at 19 rigs - and YOU think they are over producing.

    I find it quite intriguing that CHK can cut its rigs from 64 in 2014 and end 2015 at 19 rigs and production is expected +1-3%. I would think a factual analysis would applaud CHK for amazing production. If Ford closed 75% of its factory capacity and produced 3% more cars, would you think it was still a bozo company?
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy's Debt Is Growing Due To Inflexible Legacy Obligations [View article]
    Since your calculations are so far from reality would you PLEASE disclose your detailed calculations how you arrived at your highly suspect figures. I expect you are short CHK, and this helps you reach your agenda, but I am interested the truth.

    For example, you say, "Annual interest payments amount to nearly $1.0 billion." That figure is 12x what is on the 10K.

    You say, "So once again these obligations are causing CHK management to drill, when they otherwise might not have." CHK has clearly stated it is paying penalties rather than take these costs - yet you make the statement anyway.

    You say, "1. Capex will remain stubbornly high...leading to ...higher debt levels. With $4 billion of cash how disclose your calculations how debt will increase.

    I could go on, and on, but you gave unsubstantiated conclusions. The next time please report the facts.
    Mar 25, 2015. 05:44 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    "Nearly $6 billion in negative free cash flow."

    Your number is off by about $6 billion. I am sorry there I do not have enough time to explain it, but please look up the definition of "Free Cash Flow" at Investopedia.com

    Good luck
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Chesapeake Buy Chesapeake? It Should [View article]
    You sound like the Koch brothers who have fought natural gas for vehicles to keep the gas price down for their fertilizer and manufacturing. The US has so much oil we have no place to put it.

    We flare off more natural gas than we use, and we could be selling that to Japan for $14. The BTU value of what we flare is roughly $500 billion (before this price collapse). Think of the jobs it would have created to just export the flared off gas, (the wells are already drilled) but more pipelines (we have added 35,000 miles of pipe since 2009), export terminal construction (takes 3-4 years and $5 billion), shipping, ports, etc. But who cares about 3 million more jobs, a balanced budget, and energy security?

    But the Republican Congress is in the Koch's wallet. 60% - 70% of our oil is used for trucking, so if CHK could sell its EPA diesel/nat gas carburetor, and only have 15% market share it would be $30 billion in sales. But who wants Chesapeake to sell another $30 billion of product?
    Mar 8, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2.2% Dividend Chesapeake Energy Represents Value And Growth At This Low [View article]
    How did SA let you publish an honest, thoughtful, and positive article about CHK? :-)

    The major drumbeat of negativity is that "CHK has too much deb!" Really? Have these lemmings actually looked at the debt ratio, how much it has dropped in 12 months, looked at the maturity schedule with the first major amount due in 2017, and if the $2 billion is not paid off from free cash, there is a concept called refinancing - which is done all the time by every corporation.

    A use of CHK's $4.1 billion war chest is the announced stock buyback of $1 billion. I believe, because the debt is low, and getting lower, that CHK should triple the buyback and get rid of all the idiots who cannot see the most undervalued stock in the market, and people who act like owners will remain.

    Compare CHK to Cramer favorite Cimarex (XEC)

    CHK XEC
    $10.7 9.7 billion Market Value
    29% 25% Debt to Total Capital
    $18.2 4.4 billion Net Worth
    $ 4.1 0.5 billion Cash
    20,000 784 sq. miles Oil/Gas leaseholds (both best guesses from reports)

    With arguably the best reserves of all US companies, valued at roughly $0.50 per barrel (proved and unproved), the cheapest oil asset on the market is Chesapeake's own stock.

    With the sale of roughly 3% of its disposable non-core assets for $5 billion, divide $5 billion by 3% = $166 billion = 15x current market cap, or $225.

    Currently "everyone" is making the flaw of human nature, extrapolating the present as a forever condition. Did we repeal global growth? Have world leaders started holding hands, singing Kumbaya My Lord and vowing peace? Has the US 7th Fleet left the Strait of Hormuz for duty in Jamaica?

    PLEASE Mr. Lawler, buy $3 billion of stock at these ridiculously low prices, then slash drilling to meet cash flow... and the value will rocket...
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:57 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Chesapeake Buy Chesapeake? It Should [View article]
    CHK should triple the buyback and get rid of all the idiots who cannot see the most undervalued stock in the market, and people who act like owners will remain.

    Compare CHK to Cramer favorite Cimarex (XEC)

    CHK XEC
    10.7 9.7 billion Market Value
    18.2 4.4 billion Net Worth
    4.1 0.5 billion Cash
    20,000 784 sq. miles Oil/Gas leaseholds (both best guesses from reports)

    With arguably the best reserves of all US companies, valued at roughly $0.50 per barrel (proved and unproved), the cheapest oil asset on the market is Chesapeake. With the sale of roughly 3% of its disposable non-core assets for $5 billion, divide $5 billion by 3% = $166 billion = 15x current market cap.

    PLEASE Mr. Lawler, buy $3 billion of stock, then slash drilling to meet cash flow... and the value will rocket...

    Mar 5, 2015. 05:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy expects asset writedowns in Q1, 10-K says [View news story]
    EVERY oil & gas company MUST write down their asset values if prices remain low (or adjust upwards if prices recover). CHK is just being honest and getting out front with it stating the obvious.

    This is nothing new as it happened in 2009, and the adjustments will reverse once there is another war in the Mideast which cuts global oil supplies, or ISIS takes over Libya and 1 million barrels come off line, etc.
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
252 Comments
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