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Factzplz

Factzplz
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  • Is A Storm Brewing At Teva? [View article]
    You lost credibility in the second sentence...

    "...recruited Dr. Jeremy Levin, a senior executive at Bristol-Myers-Squib (BMY), to help jumpstart the FLEDGLING generic drug maker."

    The year before Levin started TEVA had $16 billion in sales. Tell me on what planet is $16 billion "fledgling ?"

    If Israel has some cultural bias that 5,000 people with no function need to be retained for $2 billion per year, then TEVA will be the last Israeli company that I will invest in, since it is only pretending to be a global company listed on the NYSE.

    I know you were paid 1 cent for my viewing, and I would like to pay you what this article was worth, but heck, keep the change.
    Nov 1, 2013. 11:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of A Stock Market Top [View article]
    I am NOT saying you are wrong...

    I just do not understand your theory as to why dividing by a treasury rate gives you a fair value of the market, and why you picked the 30-year treasury, etc.

    Enquiring minds want to know what historical charting do you have to show this is a time-tested, highly correlated predictor? What is the future time period it predicts, e.g., does the current rate manifest in stock prices 3 months, 6 months, or 1 year in the future?

    If I use the 10-year treasury, which is used for most financial prognostication including mortgage rates, then S&P 2,600 is a shoo-in.

    An interesting theory you have, but on the surface it makes little sense (yeah, I get the part of similar returns), but with earnings declining, then your theory would hold that rates should be going up.
    Or is it that if rates go up, then profits decline?
    But that does not seem to be a high historical correlation.

    Thank you in advance for clarifying this.
    Oct 27, 2013. 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Room To Outperform For Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    You make statements without any substantiation:

    "Most of these assets were sold at a loss based on the economic valuation of the oil and gas deposits and the price paid for the land." Your total economic proof to verify this?

    "Chesapeake Energy expects to spend approximately $95 million in relation to employee lay-offs... This is likely to affect operating income..." How does a non-operations charge negatively affect "operating income?"

    "Note that there was massive borrowing involved when the company was acquiring these assets. Therefore, failure to convert them into cash generating projects has been a huge setback for the Chesapeake Energy." So you think having the largest reserves in the nation in the top 10 plays "has been a huge setback...",
    ...yet another contradiction..." Chesapeake has been increasing its asset value over the last eight years. The company assets are a massive opportunity towards increasing shareholder value."

    I am glad you got a penny for my viewing, even though a penny is worth more than what you wrote. Keep the change.
    Oct 26, 2013. 01:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Long-Term Appeal Remains After Solid Momentum In 2013 [View article]
    I am long CHK and agree with the conclusion.

    The article itself was poorly written.

    Sorry.
    Oct 25, 2013. 08:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily Mail says Chesapeake a rumored target of oil majors [View news story]
    In the last 3 days $1 million in Calls have been bought for November to be above $29 to break even.

    Roughly 50 billion BOE (proved + unproved reserves) at $50 is $2 per barrel. I costs the majors $7 bbl just find the stuff. CHK has discovered 2x more oil than COP for the past 3 years, and more than XOM last year.

    CHK's drilling cost is $7 per barrel oil, and a $1.38 for gas.
    Etc.
    Etc.
    Etc.

    Fair value = $70. Keep your fingers and eyes crossed. At $40 someone should go to jail for theft.

    Gosh, I hope SE and Icahn do not go for a quick pop and leave us little guys who are willing to hold for three or more years to get the full value.
    Oct 17, 2013. 08:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where There Is Smoke, There Is Fire: Fab Universal Corp. Just Rewrote History [View article]
    It is traded on the NYSE - I thought the NYSE also has criteria for listing. Jim Rogers will lose his CNBC / Barron's mystique if he did NOT know about the company's inner workings before he got on the Board.

    Sales are climbing significantly QoQ, and YoY.

    Profits are growing.

    Chinese stock for the Chinese (government) market, seems to be working.

    Like all investments do not invest more than you can lose, and perhaps here, 1/2 of that amount "just to be safe." You have a great potential gain, but if this short writer is correct, you can still sleep at night, but you'll have to order off the $1 menu for a few months.
    Oct 14, 2013. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 BioPharmas With Near-Term Catalysts [View article]
    I am LOOOONG on ATRS... I get that.

    But, please tell me, why do you own AMBS and IGXT?

    I see nothing close to even being a spec stock. What am I missing?

    Thanks in advance.
    Oct 12, 2013. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can This Promising And Undervalued Oil And Gas Bet Finally Break Out? [View article]
    Define "Present Value"

    What is it (Market Cap, Book Value, Enterprise Value, or ???)?
    Or how is it calculated?

    Thank you.
    Oct 12, 2013. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antares Will Change RA Treatment With The Introduction Of Otrexup [View article]
    The number in the table is $500 million, not $800...

    But $500 million is still a large number. The big assumption is that this will be the "miracle drug" and doctors will embrace the new paradigm.

    It has happened before, and I would be thrilled with half, but I'm hoping...
    Oct 11, 2013. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPKO Health Inc. And Rayaldy [View article]
    Thank you for your informed input.

    Do you have any range of need for such a formulation, i.e.,
    1) how many potential patients/users need/would benefit
    2) OTC Vitamin D is dirt cheap, what is the pricing power for such a formulation
    3) Would this be prescription only, or would OTC mass-market be viable
    4) Your guess as to the $ market size for such a formulation ($200 million -- $1 billion ???)
    Oct 10, 2013. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake cuts 800 employees, wrapping up 10% workforce reduction [View news story]
    CHK has been a model corporate citizen, and the naming is part of highlighting in the most visible manor its commitment to the community. The roughly 4,100 employees of CHK contribute 25% of the United Way funding in a metro area of 1.2 million people.

    Because CHK had integrity and dignity was part of the reason it could attract the best talent, as evidenced by in 2012 it had 160,000 applicants for 900 positions, and Fortune's 26th Best Company to Work For.

    Given all that CHK has accomplished it is a tribute to the caliber of employees.

    Having traveled to Oklahoma City I am keenly aware of the incredible impact CHK has had on the city, and to the energy independence of America.

    Small minds get small results.
    Oct 8, 2013. 09:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Halozyme slips as UBS questions Herceptin visibility [View news story]
    I agree with all the others...

    Does Roche disclose royalty payments to ANY partner? To a company like Roche, a $10-$100 million annual payment is a rounding error, and since HALO is not 10% of any metric Roche is not required to disclose it.

    Yet, for HALO, to partner with the #1 breast cancer drug is fantastic, and the beginning of the income stream. HALO has not disclosed the royalty fee for any partner (obviously for competitive reasons) -- and I have never heard of any drug company disclosing the exact details of a partnership deal.

    UBS investment thesis: 1) Wait for stock to go up. 2) Have an "Oh, crap, this popped too quickly" moment 3) Issue a groundless, nonsense, negative statement about the partner to get the stock price down. 4.) Tell brokers stock is under review and (wink) clients should "consider looking at" (code for Buy). 5. One week later up the price target to $15.

    I am long HALO, my second largest position.
    Oct 7, 2013. 04:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The JPMorgan Apologists Of CNBC [View article]
    In a previous life I was a community bank CEO & director, and had a higher Return On Assets than JPM before the crash.

    We paid our FDIC insurance premiums, unlike JPM and cohorts who had them rescinded in 2004 because banks were no longer at risk of failing, so they could be more profitable (from 2004-2008 banks did NOT pay $50 billion in FDIC premiums, roughly $10 billion less than it cost to "save" the system).

    We took deposits and made auto, home, business loans - that's it.

    Unlike JPM, we made a loan and kept it on our books, we did NOT falsify statements and try to stick Fannie with fraudulent loans,or unknowing investors.

    JPM has been foreclosing on homes of our troops in Iraq & Afghanistan in clear violation of the Serviceman Civil Relief Act, started in 1940, to protect our troops from unscrupulous bankers – such as JP Morgan

    •The largest owner of copper in the world is JP Morgan
    •The largest trader of electricity in California is (drum roll please), JP Morgan (as was Enron in 2000)
    •In 2012, JP Morgan, thru a London company, lost $6 billion trading “synthetic credit derivatives tied to corporate debt” meaning it lost $6 billion (it had invested more) betting for/against companies that would succeed or go bankrupt.

    What does any of this have to do with auto, home, or business loans? Why is this allowed? Why do these banks have bank charters? Why do they have FDIC insurance on deposits? Oh, yeah, “free market capitalism,” regardless of who gets hurt.

    And for a shocking view of why the economy is stagnant look at the Fed chart on EXCESS reserves - money NOT being lent.

    http://bit.ly/198OGbE

    Banks will receive ~$77 billion this year for NOT making loans -- so please do NOT cry for "poor" Jamie.

    Jamie did NOT become a target when he opposed Dodd-Frank, but when he walked in front of the gun when he CHOSE to get into non-banking and illegal activities.

    As far as Maria, the "Money Honey," many a day I wonder what the correlation is between her horrible "reporting" and the positions of her hedge fund manager husband, or her stock advice newsletter.

    Note that CNBC's viewership is at a decade low - and for good reason. Booyah!
    Sep 29, 2013. 09:11 AM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Biopharmas With Upcoming Catalysts That Should Rally [View article]
    ATRS is #4 of my top five holdings (CHK, HALO, SPPI, ATRS, EMES) so I share your enthusiasm.

    Your investigative "conspiracy" work (for our good) rivals Jesse Ventura. :-)

    Thank you for your insights.

    P.S. As the next post requests, in your opinion, what other companies (in any sector) have some upcoming catalysts?
    Sep 29, 2013. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals Preferred Shares: An Investigative Report [View article]
    Thank you for this in-depth article.

    It is a rare event when a SA writer takes the initiative and time to dig, and dig for information, instead of spouting erroneous uninformed opinions.

    As far as getting Yahoo to change anything - good luck. They use some data vendor and that is that. I have tried in the past with absolutely no success.

    To quickly solve the confusion, the company needs to take the lead and make sure the data providers get the correct information in a format that they need.
    Sep 27, 2013. 06:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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