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Factzplz

Factzplz
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  • The ink was barely dry on Chesapeake's (CHK -2.1%) better-than-expected earnings report before worries resurface about its liquidity position and slow progress on its asset-sale program. In its conference call, CHK said its 2013 funding gap stands at $3.5B, barely halfway through its $7B asset-sale target. Concerns are exacerbated by supposedly receiving low prices for the assets. [View news story]
    CHK has always executed its plan, and the whole tone of the call, and even direct statements, is that it wants to under promise and over deliver. It was clearly stated it would exceed the minimum of its sales with demand picking up for its properties, AND it will reach all of its debt goals.

    With the closed and planned sales + $3.2 billion of (current) liquidity, there will not be any shortfalls. The fact that it is still drilling at the same pace, is 85% hedged for oil at $95, and that costs per well have dropped 30%, shows it is executing on all fronts.

    Put a fork in it. This story is done and over. We're six months from an incredible upside.
    May 1 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A number of biotechs are sharply lower amid rumors of a sizable Bio-fund going out of business and liquidating its positions. It's Ayer Capital Management according to sources, reports Adam Feuerstein. (PCYC -5.6%), (CLDX -4.9%), (NPSP -3.1%), (HALO -3.8%). [View news story]
    Does anybody stop to think?

    Biotech is one of the BEST sectors this year.

    AMGN +27%
    BIIB +40%
    CELG +48%
    XBI +12%

    The ONLY way a Bio-fund can be in trouble is if it was SHORT these stocks, and then it has to cover.

    OK folks, engage your brains...
    May 1 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage [View article]
    I ask you, why is the Fed's bond buying leading to inflation?

    The Fed was NOT buying bonds in 2005-6-7 yet housing prices were increasing at the highest rate in history. With all the bond buying, and 30 year mortgage rates at 3.4%, housing prices are not even close to 2007 prices. Who is going to be the idiot that is going to bid up prices?

    Why / how does the Fed's bond buying have anything to do with the price of gold or silver?

    The 3 largest holders of gold:
    United States
    Germany
    GLD etf(s)

    Why does the Fed's action force anyone to login to Thinkorswim, click their mouse, and buy GLD? If nobody clicked their mouse there would be TONS of gold on the market pushing prices down far lower.

    In the early 80's silver was the hot commodity. Google that and see how it turned out. Of course in the80s there was not a Ron Paul who has 95% of his investments in gold, and all his efforts were only to push up his investments by fear mongering.

    In time, we will know...
    Apr 29 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage [View article]
    The data shows PPI

    3-31-13 196.2
    3-31-12 194.0

    One year increase = 2.2 / 194.0 = 1.1%

    How did you calculate 12%? It seems you missed the decimal point.
    Apr 29 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Sells Marcellus Acreage To Southwestern At $574 Per Acre: Quick Read [View article]
    The most amazing part of this story is: "...the equity market valuation implies over $30,000 per Cabot's undeveloped acre in Susquehanna..."

    The author does not state how he calculated this valuation, but $30,000 per acrea would have CHK's 15 million acres valuing the stock at $675 per share.

    I suggest why the author's next article be, "Cabot Oil, the inspiration for Gas Land, the next $2 stock."
    Apr 29 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Partners Offer Leveraged Exposure To MLP Distribution Growth [View article]
    Thanks for attempting to explain these - but I would REALLY like to have a thorough understanding.

    Re: ATLS & APL, you omitted ARP another entity in this god-awful corportate structure - which to me, makes no sense, unless you are the law firm, accountants, or "investment" bankers for these guys. I have yet to see the rational that a stand alone company could not do the same business with a MUCH cheaper cost structure and efficiency.

    Can you shed any light on why ATLS+APL+ARP is better than ATLS alone, doing what all three are doing independently?

    I bought APL several years ago near $38, and I am still underwater, in spite of what appears to be excellent fundamentals and growth. Yet, ATLS has been a rocket shot.

    How can ATLS trade at such a low yield? Where is the dividend growth coming from to justify the price?

    Of the gazillion iterations in this industry (including others have posted) why do you only own, ETP, NGLS, EPD? What makes them compelling buys?

    Thanks in advance.
    Apr 28 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Bond Market Collapse: 3 Ways To Escape The Damage [View article]
    Inlflation relies on VELOCITY of money - demand. Bankeres are sucking their thumbs in the fetal position not making loans.

    Banks have $1.7 trillion of excess reserves earning .25% at the Fed, versus $60 billion for the 40 years prior to 2008. Here is the link to the chart.

    http://bit.ly/IUNZQ8

    When banks begin to lend the Fed will stop buying bonds, and since the majority have less than 32 year maturities they will roll off in an orderly manner. And IF the Republicans ever want nat gas as an energy fuel - they blocked it six (6) times, we could add 3 million jobs, and reduce the deficit by $500 billion. But oh well...

    Inflation will not be here anytime soon.
    Apr 28 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Without McClendon: Leaving Money On The Table In Asset Sales [View article]
    What are you talking about "letting this type of thing happen..."?

    What are you talking about "using the shareholders of CHK as chumps..."?

    NO facts. NO details. NO rationale.

    A month ago some SA "smart" guy wrote that CHK got too little for the JV sale to China. Except, industry people said CHK got fair value.

    My guess is this SA writer also does not have a clue, but you always "sound smart" if you say something negative. I would bet Mr. Young did NOT build a $20 billion company in the last 24 years, starting with $50,000 -- nor could he in the next 24 years.

    Those that can - do.
    Those that can't - write for SA
    Apr 24 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 1929 Peak Versus 2000 Peak? [View article]
    If you studied the Great Depression you would understand there was a massive credit expansion in the 1920s - if not alone for the stock market that allowed 90% margin'

    It is time for SA to update this chart to bring in the 1937 crash.
    Apr 21 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Halcon Resources: Why I Steer Clear Of The Current Staggering Valuation [View article]
    Great article -- again. Thank you.

    Cramer had the CEO on last week and HK is a buy, buy, buy. But, based on your analysis, perhaps near $4 it is a buy.

    With HK trading near $47 per barrel of reserves, versus CHK trading at roughly $1 BOE, they are on opposite ends of the bell curve.
    Apr 21 10:12 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opko Health Is On Its Way To Growth. Buy Before Others Do [View article]
    Where did you come up with the assumption(s) that South America, the land of the impoverished, "The test will generate unimaginable sales from these markets."?

    What is the rate of prostate cancer in South America? How many people have insurance to pay for the test? How many can afford $1,600 without insurance (Argentina, one of the soundest economies, has an average ANNUAL income of $10,800, and Brazil, the biggest of all, it is $12,000 source: Forbes).

    "In these countries, 4KScore has a large target market and it will face less regulatory." You seem to imply that there is something corrupt with the test that cannot pass scrutiny in the US, but the suckers in South America will spend 1.5 months of income for the test.

    And finally, when did Cramer quotes replace facts? Cramer just repeats what his staff picks up from the press, and parrots the same drivel as you can find anywhere on the Internet -- such as what you are touting.

    Please. Do some real research and report facts.

    Note: I got long at $4.65 and sold recently at $7.42. I will get long again in the low $6 range, and probably by selling $5 Puts.
    Apr 16 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nvidia Returning $1 Billion To Investors - What To Expect [View article]
    Good observations, and more true.

    Yes, NVDA may go up, as the chart is breaking out. But never confuse brilliance with a bull market. If the tide goes out NVDA will float out to sea as well. And let's see what happens this week when INTC reports on slowing PC shipments.
    Apr 14 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Legendary Investor Jeremy Grantham Believes Natural Gas Prices Will Triple [View article]
    Ronwagn probably is correct that until 2015 when exports start up gas prices will be held down -- especially when you factor in that the U.S. is flaring off, annually, (back of napkin calc) the equivelent of 7 billion BOE - $480 billion of BTUs up the chimmney.

    But heck, even at $5.50 CHK will generate half of its current market cap in free cash.

    McClendon's plan will play out, as he CLEARLY articulated 5 years ago.
    Apr 12 07:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunomedics' Strengthened Balance Sheet Supports A Compelling Trade Ahead Of Presentations [View article]
    I have no idea what Prop said about GALE. GALE stock is up and at a record high.

    Does that mean you are agreeing with and buying on Prop's recommendation?

    Inquiring minds want to know...

    Thank you.
    Apr 9 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spotting The Undervalued And The Overvalued Small Midstream Companies (Part II) [View article]
    Thank you for your research, as I am long 4,000 shares of APL. With APL's guidance of a 10%-40% dividend increase by 2014, given that its capacity increased 120% last year (hence, the debt you reference.)

    I look forward to what you do own, or what meets your criteria of this industry, which has been on fire this year, +18%, with more gains projected, as in this morning's paper.

    You have your work cut out with all the companies and the intricacies (e.g., such as APL with its recent doubling+ of capacity, resulting debt, but results not yet reflecting in revenues/profits) of ALL the companies, which are booming.

    Don't keep us in suspense...
    Apr 9 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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