GreenAB

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/webobjects/portfolio.woa/ps/fundpublicpage/source=hkmegglfecokgg

21 Comments

    • The Credit Market Indicator: Don't Buy Stocks, Yet [view article]
      for the threasuries not falling enough: i think a substantial part of the money coming out of commodities moved into treasuries as the inflation outlook is improving. Aug 14 08:09 AM
    • What's Wrong with Today's Value Investing? [view article]
      i consider myself a value investor too.
      but i guess we´re in a process of transforming valuations.
      models rely on todays prices in relation to lets say the last 10-15 years.
      but thats too shortsighted.
      the market prices dire profits for the coming years.
      that makes stocks less attractive.
      so if a model would suggest that a pe of 10 is cheap, there´s no law it has to stay that way. it can fall to 7, 5 or 2 - nobody knows.
      it´s called pe-contraction and it happende way in the past.
      not an easy time for stockpickers...       Jul 03 07:41 AM
    • May ABX Loan Performance Reports Bring More Encouraging News [view article]
      so if things aren´t that bad, you will go out and buy with full hands, won´t you?
      the information you provided is known by everyone - so why is the market mispricing?       Jul 03 07:26 AM
    • Complacency in the VIX (and VXO) During Selloffs [view article]
      since the fed change the rules of the game by bailing out bear stearns and backstopping the financial system we might never return to 30+ vix levels. Jul 02 07:47 AM
    • Red Flags at Transmeridian Exploration [view article]
      i encourage everyone to read the companys sec filings.
      this one is for the issuance of 40m of convertible preferred stock in june:

      yahoo.brand.edgar-onli...

      "...The conversion price of the Junior Preferred Stock will be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions. The conversion price will further be adjusted if by October 31, 2007, a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated will result in a change of control has not been entered into. The conversion price will be adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP if such VWAP is less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $2.00 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $2.00 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.90 (the “ October 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”). Thereafter, if a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated, will result in a change of control has not been entered into, by December 31, 2007, the conversion price will be further adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP, if less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $1.65 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $1.65 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.50 (the “ December 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”), in either case subject to further adjustment..."


      ->the conversion price is subject to downwards adjustments the longer a takeover is not in place.

      what does this tell you about this company?       Jan 10 03:07 PM
    • Akeena Solar: America's Next Industrial Giant? [view article]
      AKNS is far from profitability. revenues are a joke compared to the big german/chinese manufacturers.
      balance sheet is weak, stockholders sequity only 13m (market cap 337m !)
      i don´t think they will survive over the long term.


      the CEO just dumped 100.000 shars @11.12.       Jan 08 12:23 PM
    • Something's Fishy About the Jobs Number [view article]
      the same came though my mind, when i saw the revised august numbers - excellent write.

      it´s the big money that´s running this country...       Oct 09 11:22 AM
    • Currency Analysts Expect Dollar To Strengthen [view article]
      so if all the "experts" are bullish, i consider them holding long positions in the dollar.

      so where are the future buyers?

      as for currencies the consensus is mostly wrong.
      when the euro hit 1.36 vs. the dollar two years most economists wer pretty bullish for the euro expecting it to fly to 1.40.
      but the opposite happened.       Sep 26 01:33 PM
    • What The Fed Said vs. What The Fed Meant [view article]
      great write, love it!


      the whole thing gets even more bizarre when Feds Plosser (not a voter) today warned of post rate cut inflation risks.       Sep 26 12:19 PM
    • Simtek Corp. On The Rise [view article]
      nice growth story, but the stock is not cheap at current levels.

      with the nasdaq listing stockholders are cashing in.
      CY is offering 1.0 of it´s 3m shares.
      and the company registered 1.2m new shares (positive part: 1m warrants are exercisable at 7.50)

      "This prospectus is being used to register 2,351,155 shares of Simtek
      Corporation's common stock being offered by the selling security holders, which
      include certain of our current officers and directors. Of the shares offered by
      this prospectus 1,153,171 shares are currently issued and outstanding and
      1,197,984 shares are issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock purchase
      warrants with exercise prices ranging from $3.30 to $7.50 per share."


      at the price of 5.85 the company will have a market cap of 95m post nasdaq listing.
      book value is 17m (7m of it is a non competition agreement?) with only 3m cash.

      revenue growth is impressive but i would like to see some kind of EPS guidance here,
      before i would buy in.

      if the business is that great, why did CY reduce their stake instead of aquiring the company?       Jan 10 07:46 AM
    • The iPhone Will Probably Be Released In 2007: Who Is Apple Up Against? [view article]
      www.amtddj.inlumen.com...

      Cisco Gets To iPhone Name First, Beating Apple       Dec 27 05:51 AM
    • LanOptics' EZChip Poised For Mega-Growth? [view article]
      when that technology is really a breakthrough without competition - why does LNOP still trade public instead of being aquired by one of the big chip makers? Nov 27 03:46 AM
    • Baidu: Raising Questions on Valuation and Search Ads [view article]
      poor arguments by a BIDU shortseller.

      if you don´t understand soon, you will loose alot of money.

      you are betting against the dominant player in chinese internet.
      the company is profitable and compared to it´s growth the stock is still cheap.

      2007 pe stands at 66, revenue and EPS are projected to grow by more than 80%.
      analysts keep raising their estimates.

      what do you expect?
      that a fast growing company trades at a forward pe of 30, or what?

      you will never get a ferrari at the price of a corolla.       Nov 24 04:35 AM
    • The Long Case For Baidu.com [view article]
      thank you very much for sharing this analysis! Nov 21 08:14 AM
    • eFuture's IPO Was Severely Underpriced [view article]
      what a joke.

      given the IPO filing which includes the latest earnings the stock was not cheap at 6 and is way overvalued right now.

      the driver behind this thing is the small float (look at the crazyness at NMX)       Nov 20 09:20 AM
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