GreenAB's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/19362/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/90725-the-credit-market-indicator-don-t-buy-stocks-yet?source=feed#comment-229993 229993 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 08:09:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83361-what-s-wrong-with-today-s-value-investing?source=feed#comment-197756 197756 but i guess we´re in a process of transforming valuations.
models rely on todays prices in relation to lets say the last 10-15 years.
but thats too shortsighted.
the market prices dire profits for the coming years.
that makes stocks less attractive.
so if a model would suggest that a pe of 10 is cheap, there´s no law it has to stay that way. it can fall to 7, 5 or 2 - nobody knows.
it´s called pe-contraction and it happende way in the past.
not an easy time for stockpickers...]]> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 07:41:38 -0400 but i guess we´re in a process of transforming valuations.
models rely on todays prices in relation to lets say the last 10-15 years.
but thats too shortsighted.
the market prices dire profits for the coming years.
that makes stocks less attractive.
so if a model would suggest that a pe of 10 is cheap, there´s no law it has to stay that way. it can fall to 7, 5 or 2 - nobody knows.
it´s called pe-contraction and it happende way in the past.
not an easy time for stockpickers...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83383-may-abx-loan-performance-reports-bring-more-encouraging-news?source=feed#comment-197747 197747 the information you provided is known by everyone - so why is the market mispricing? ]]> Thu, 03 Jul 2008 07:26:03 -0400 the information you provided is known by everyone - so why is the market mispricing? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83259-complacency-in-the-vix-and-vxo-during-selloffs?source=feed#comment-197038 197038 Wed, 02 Jul 2008 07:47:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59159-red-flags-at-transmeridian-exploration?source=feed#comment-109478 109478 this one is for the issuance of 40m of convertible preferred stock in june:

yahoo.brand.edgar-onli...

"...The conversion price of the Junior Preferred Stock will be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions. The conversion price will further be adjusted if by October 31, 2007, a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated will result in a change of control has not been entered into. The conversion price will be adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP if such VWAP is less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $2.00 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $2.00 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.90 (the “ October 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”). Thereafter, if a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated, will result in a change of control has not been entered into, by December 31, 2007, the conversion price will be further adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP, if less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $1.65 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $1.65 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.50 (the “ December 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”), in either case subject to further adjustment..."


->the conversion price is subject to downwards adjustments the longer a takeover is not in place.

what does this tell you about this company?]]> Thu, 10 Jan 2008 15:07:14 -0500 this one is for the issuance of 40m of convertible preferred stock in june:

yahoo.brand.edgar-onli...

"...The conversion price of the Junior Preferred Stock will be subject to adjustment pursuant to customary anti-dilution provisions. The conversion price will further be adjusted if by October 31, 2007, a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated will result in a change of control has not been entered into. The conversion price will be adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP if such VWAP is less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $2.00 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $2.00 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.90 (the “ October 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”). Thereafter, if a change of control has not occurred, or a definitive agreement that, if consummated, will result in a change of control has not been entered into, by December 31, 2007, the conversion price will be further adjusted to be equal to the preceding 15-day VWAP, if less than the then-current conversion price, but in no event below the lesser of (i) $1.65 or (ii) the per-share price that bears the same proportional relationship to $1.65 as the June 2007 VWAP bears to $2.48, provided that in no event shall such per-share price be less than $1.50 (the “ December 2007 Special Adjustment Floor ”), in either case subject to further adjustment..."


->the conversion price is subject to downwards adjustments the longer a takeover is not in place.

what does this tell you about this company?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/58910-akeena-solar-america-s-next-industrial-giant?source=feed#comment-108964 108964 balance sheet is weak, stockholders sequity only 13m (market cap 337m !)
i don´t think they will survive over the long term.


the CEO just dumped 100.000 shars @11.12.]]> Tue, 08 Jan 2008 12:23:12 -0500 balance sheet is weak, stockholders sequity only 13m (market cap 337m !)
i don´t think they will survive over the long term.


the CEO just dumped 100.000 shars @11.12.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/49222-something-s-fishy-about-the-jobs-number?source=feed#comment-98102 98102
it´s the big money that´s running this country...]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2007 11:22:51 -0400
it´s the big money that´s running this country...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47816-currency-analysts-expect-dollar-to-strengthen?source=feed#comment-96931 96931
so where are the future buyers?

as for currencies the consensus is mostly wrong.
when the euro hit 1.36 vs. the dollar two years most economists wer pretty bullish for the euro expecting it to fly to 1.40.
but the opposite happened.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2007 13:33:36 -0400
so where are the future buyers?

as for currencies the consensus is mostly wrong.
when the euro hit 1.36 vs. the dollar two years most economists wer pretty bullish for the euro expecting it to fly to 1.40.
but the opposite happened.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/47643-what-the-fed-said-vs-what-the-fed-meant?source=feed#comment-96924 96924

the whole thing gets even more bizarre when Feds Plosser (not a voter) today warned of post rate cut inflation risks.]]> Wed, 26 Sep 2007 12:19:48 -0400

the whole thing gets even more bizarre when Feds Plosser (not a voter) today warned of post rate cut inflation risks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/23760-simtek-corp-on-the-rise?source=feed#comment-79836 79836
with the nasdaq listing stockholders are cashing in.
CY is offering 1.0 of it´s 3m shares.
and the company registered 1.2m new shares (positive part: 1m warrants are exercisable at 7.50)

"This prospectus is being used to register 2,351,155 shares of Simtek
Corporation's common stock being offered by the selling security holders, which
include certain of our current officers and directors. Of the shares offered by
this prospectus 1,153,171 shares are currently issued and outstanding and
1,197,984 shares are issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock purchase
warrants with exercise prices ranging from $3.30 to $7.50 per share."


at the price of 5.85 the company will have a market cap of 95m post nasdaq listing.
book value is 17m (7m of it is a non competition agreement?) with only 3m cash.

revenue growth is impressive but i would like to see some kind of EPS guidance here,
before i would buy in.

if the business is that great, why did CY reduce their stake instead of aquiring the company?]]> Wed, 10 Jan 2007 07:46:55 -0500
with the nasdaq listing stockholders are cashing in.
CY is offering 1.0 of it´s 3m shares.
and the company registered 1.2m new shares (positive part: 1m warrants are exercisable at 7.50)

"This prospectus is being used to register 2,351,155 shares of Simtek
Corporation's common stock being offered by the selling security holders, which
include certain of our current officers and directors. Of the shares offered by
this prospectus 1,153,171 shares are currently issued and outstanding and
1,197,984 shares are issuable upon exercise of outstanding stock purchase
warrants with exercise prices ranging from $3.30 to $7.50 per share."


at the price of 5.85 the company will have a market cap of 95m post nasdaq listing.
book value is 17m (7m of it is a non competition agreement?) with only 3m cash.

revenue growth is impressive but i would like to see some kind of EPS guidance here,
before i would buy in.

if the business is that great, why did CY reduce their stake instead of aquiring the company?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/23022-the-iphone-will-probably-be-released-in-2007-who-is-apple-up-against?source=feed#comment-79407 79407 www.amtddj.inlumen.com...

Cisco Gets To iPhone Name First, Beating Apple]]> Wed, 27 Dec 2006 05:51:53 -0500 www.amtddj.inlumen.com...

Cisco Gets To iPhone Name First, Beating Apple]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/21203-lanoptics-ezchip-poised-for-mega-growth?source=feed#comment-76565 76565 Mon, 27 Nov 2006 03:46:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/21126-baidu-raising-questions-on-valuation-and-search-ads?source=feed#comment-76279 76279
if you don´t understand soon, you will loose alot of money.

you are betting against the dominant player in chinese internet.
the company is profitable and compared to it´s growth the stock is still cheap.

2007 pe stands at 66, revenue and EPS are projected to grow by more than 80%.
analysts keep raising their estimates.

what do you expect?
that a fast growing company trades at a forward pe of 30, or what?

you will never get a ferrari at the price of a corolla.]]> Fri, 24 Nov 2006 04:35:54 -0500
if you don´t understand soon, you will loose alot of money.

you are betting against the dominant player in chinese internet.
the company is profitable and compared to it´s growth the stock is still cheap.

2007 pe stands at 66, revenue and EPS are projected to grow by more than 80%.
analysts keep raising their estimates.

what do you expect?
that a fast growing company trades at a forward pe of 30, or what?

you will never get a ferrari at the price of a corolla.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/20819-the-long-case-for-baidu-com?source=feed#comment-75835 75835 Tue, 21 Nov 2006 08:14:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/19027-missed-google-s-run-up-don-t-miss-baidu-s?source=feed#comment-71709 71709 Tue, 24 Oct 2006 06:49:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/18931-encore-capital-deserves-a-bravo?source=feed#comment-71404 71404 they seem to perform more consistently and are cheap as well.]]> Sun, 22 Oct 2006 06:26:08 -0400 they seem to perform more consistently and are cheap as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/18252-vitalstream-post-myspace-a-black-diamond-buy?source=feed#comment-69367 69367 Wed, 11 Oct 2006 07:44:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/18156-two-compelling-cash-hoard-stocks?source=feed#comment-69196 69196 just have a look at analysts estimates for 2007.

CRYP: +1.21
PLAY: +0.25

both companies see their business shrinking dramatically, but costs remain.

the price targets cannot be justified on this basis.

both picks are just bets that something big might happen (CRYP being bought, PLAY huge customer win).
til then i see no reason for these stocks to outperform.]]> Tue, 10 Oct 2006 08:01:20 -0400 just have a look at analysts estimates for 2007.

CRYP: +1.21
PLAY: +0.25

both companies see their business shrinking dramatically, but costs remain.

the price targets cannot be justified on this basis.

both picks are just bets that something big might happen (CRYP being bought, PLAY huge customer win).
til then i see no reason for these stocks to outperform.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/17793-profiting-from-non-hurricanes?source=feed#comment-67899 67899 The Company, through its subsidiaries, underwrites standard and non-standard personal automobile insurance, flood insurance, general liability insurance, mobile home insurance and homeowners' property and casualty insurance in the State of Florida.
they did very well during the last years until their earnings got crushed by hurricanes.
with increased premiums and halfway through the hurricane season 2006 earnings should get a bosst.
stock is nearing an alltime high.]]> Tue, 03 Oct 2006 02:32:36 -0400 The Company, through its subsidiaries, underwrites standard and non-standard personal automobile insurance, flood insurance, general liability insurance, mobile home insurance and homeowners' property and casualty insurance in the State of Florida.
they did very well during the last years until their earnings got crushed by hurricanes.
with increased premiums and halfway through the hurricane season 2006 earnings should get a bosst.
stock is nearing an alltime high.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/17523-baidu-impressive-growth-but-valuation-is-out-of-hand?source=feed#comment-67144 67144 the market doesn´t pay for historic but for future growth.
analysts steadily increased their EPS estimates for 2007 to 1.62, which translates into 90% growth for the next year. based on these projections BIDU trades at a forward P/E of 54.
to me the stock looks cheap.
as you mentioned the company has a unique position in chinas internet market, which morgan stanley sees growing by 50% anullay throgh 2009.
a dominant market share coupled with high growth never comes cheap]]> Fri, 29 Sep 2006 08:28:42 -0400 the market doesn´t pay for historic but for future growth.
analysts steadily increased their EPS estimates for 2007 to 1.62, which translates into 90% growth for the next year. based on these projections BIDU trades at a forward P/E of 54.
to me the stock looks cheap.
as you mentioned the company has a unique position in chinas internet market, which morgan stanley sees growing by 50% anullay throgh 2009.
a dominant market share coupled with high growth never comes cheap]]>