cyclingscholar's Comments

Market Volume: Still an Unanswered Question

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:05:16 -0500

It might not be as bad as ya think. Unless there is a reason to believe that the 'black box' volume is a constantly varying proportion of all transactions, then the reported exchange volume will be useful. I have charts that show BATS volume (estimated) and it correlates very well with exchange reported volume for almost all active stocks and major ETFs: SPY, DIA, and QQQQ.

Just as a scale which is 'aways off by 10 pounds' can still tell ya your weight is higher or lower, so can reported volume be useful if we assume 'black box' volume is a constant proportion of all trades.

Krugman on the Invisible Bond Vigilantes

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 12:31:01 -0500

The whole analysis is flawed anyway. Please do not compare DEBT (a balance sheet item) with INCOME/GDP (an income statement item). Since the Feds don't have a balance sheet, look at interest payments as a % of GDP and go from there.

Big Pharma Under Pressure as Drug Patents Expire and Pipeline Slows

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:55:47 -0500

Big pharma hopped in bed with the Anointed One, agreeing to pay hush-money this summer in the form of reduced prices and tax payments in exchange for a seat at the table. Now they discover they are in the Menu. A pox on RINOs and RINO corporations.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:54:53 -0500

Mr. Lounsbury, 'market capitalization' is a function of how many shares are publicly traded, as well as the $ Level of those shares. As more companies went public in the 1980s and 1990s, i think this biases your data upward. A bubble is more likely to be detected using valuation measures like P/E, P/Cash flow, P/Sales, etc. If the NYSE and NasDaq tightened listing restrictions (heavens!) your plotted line would collapse.

J.M. Smucker Company (SJM): FQ2 EPS of $1.22 beats by $0.18. Revenue of $1.28B in-line. Sees full-year EPS of $3.95-4.05 vs. $3.83 consensus. (PR)

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:45:28 -0500

Smuckers, for little f*ckers! Don't be afraid to recognize quality and consumer satisfaction from your childs eyes....it could be worth millions!

Healthcare Reform: Why Wall Street Is Bullish

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:35:25 -0500

Worry not! Health care will be run very well like other industries the Federal government decides to cohabit with...autos, real estate, banking,for example. Maybe they'll turn medical technology into a regulated public utilities...7x earnings, anyone?

Also...the increases in price have correlated with DECLINES in the Anointed One's approval ratings and prospects of passage.

J&J vs. 10-Year T-Bonds: The Power of Rising Dividends

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:24:34 -0500

Slow and easy does it and let the quality rise to the top. JNJ is an example of a great CORE holding, like a nice pot of soup on the back burner, there when ya need it.

By the way a very similar set of financial metrics can be found with Abbott Labs, which happens to boast somewhat more price and dividend momentum going forward.

Financials: Missing the Rally and Warning for the Future

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:36:31 -0500

A sure sign of a weak mind is someone who thinks the market is MANIPULATED. And by the way, your second 'lower high' isn't a high yet, prices would have to fell below the intervening valley (or at least near it) before you could say that is a high.

They will indeed, do so. But manipulation will play no part in it.

Three Democratic senators could vote against the healthcare reform bill in the Senate, which would scuttle the bill.

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:00:30 -0500

AMEN! The world should get down on its knees and thank Fox News, without which this monstrosity would have passed. Continue to play to NO'Bama medical care and medical technology portfolios.

Wal-Mart: Squeezing Out a Profit Despite Soft Sales

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:41:21 -0500

Until we get state, local, and the federal government to call off the anti-WalMart, Union card-check luddites, WalMart will continue to post record sales, profits, margins, and EPS...and go nowhere in price, as it has stagnated since 2000.

Five Ways to ‘Kick the Tires’ on Your ETF

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:59:46 -0500

Type in the ETF ticker symbol at yahoo finance, and don't forget to look on the left hand column for 'components.' It'll tell you the top ten holdings in the ETF by market value; useful in comparing similar etfs, and seeing where your money is really going.

Hansen Medical: A Stock to Make Any Investor's Heart Happy

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0500

Jason I must be a codgy old cynical investor. I don't see any sarcasm in your article at all. :)

On Nov 12 07:15 PM Jason Kelly wrote:

> Uh, gang: read a little more carefully next time, and note the abundance
> of sarcasm. Note, too, the position disclosure.
>
> The article was partially tongue-in-cheek to show that even cooked
> books can't keep a stock down in this environment. The one-day 18%
> pop following the posting proved the point.

Automatic Data Processing: Dividend Raised for 35th Year in a Row

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 10:01:11 -0500

I think you are correct about ADP perhaps sniffing an employment peak six months in advance. In addition, Mr. Moneygardener, it probably realizes that health care reform, and other programs under OBama and congress, will make payroll processing even more difficult for companies and profitable for ADP.

6 Global Risks that Could Spark a New Crisis

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:03:14 -0500

"Never before has there been such a dichotomy of opinions emerging from economists."

You aren't SERIOUS, are you?

Cardiac Science: Ripe for Defibrillation

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:00:02 -0500

Well just make sure their product is approved by the FDA for cardiac applications. Some companies are not: consider Hansen Medical, from their OWN WEBSITE: "The safety and effectiveness of this device for use with cardiac ablation catheters, in the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias including atrial fibrillation, have not been established. "

Hansen Medical: A Stock to Make Any Investor's Heart Happy

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:48:27 -0500

From the HANSEN website: "The safety and effectiveness of this device for use with cardiac ablation catheters, in the treatment of cardiac arrhythmias including atrial fibrillation, have not been established. "

Convenient oversight by Mr. Kelly.

Ticking Away: The Inflation Time Bomb

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:37:08 -0500

By the way folks...my mistake, 4x9= 36, not 63. Lets have it be a group of 7, not four. Then ya get 63!

About 50% of the debt is owed to foreigners. Even so...lets get the anointed one to look em in the face and dare them to draw! The Chinese are worried about our dollar? Coming from a country which has defaulted on its debt a couple times in RECENT MEMORY, thats sure alot of nerve. The Europeans? After 70 years of freeriding on American defense, maybe we should just let those bills come due and deduct the PV of our NATO expenditures from the Deficit. We've cleaned up our air, our water, and our environment....so lets go to the UN and/or IMF and arrange a 'debt forgiveness for environmental action' like so many countries have done lately.

Whats good for the goose is good for the gander.

On Nov 10 06:58 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> That is NOT what has happened to the U.S.!!! We owe foreigners, and
> some groups of Americans are being systematically pillaged to prolong
> the debt-based spending to give entitlements to other groups, and
> to prop up the assets and lifestyles of the "ownership class."

Options Trader Thursday Outlook: Get Ready for the Next Million Layoffs

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:29:43 -0500

State employees are overpaid, underworked, overf**ked and underloved; all deservedly so. The solution is slash PAY, not PAYROLLS, by 40 or 50%, and ya may as well start with those publik school teachers who are cranking out illiterate, innumerate imbeciles.

Why the Anemic Market Action?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 11:49:17 -0500

VWAP: Very White Anglosaxon Protestants. Always been leading indicators! Seriously, Doctor Kris....the vast majority of the value of your article is pointing out the failure of the transports to confirm the Industrials in recent weeks. This goes back to the Dow Theory, which predates any analyst on wall street who is alive at the moment.

Peak Oil: Caused by Geology, Politics or Infrastructure Issues?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:07:00 -0500

all and good SUPPLY analysis, but no demand analysis, which is what will make the difference. Improvements in transportation, heating, efficiency and lighting technologies are only now being adaported and we have MUCH further to go. While it's be a rough ride over the next century, the transition from oil/fossil fuels to nuclear/solar/wind/bio... will keep the wolf from the door.

Hansen Medical: A Stock to Make Any Investor's Heart Happy

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:56:32 -0500

Gee man i am glad HANSEN's technology costs half that of STXS. Now if they could just stop their Sensei from puncturing a few arteries along the way, maybe they can stop HNSN from puncturing shareholder value. Please Mr. Kelly tell your followers what an FDA "black box" means.

The Next Recession

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:01:10 -0500

You are spot on with deregulation. Where did cell phones, the internet, biotechnology, cheap airfares, UPS, FedEx, and computer games come from? Did ALGore Invent all of them? No, these major industries were deregulated or created from stale predecessors that had regulatory protection. Back in the stagflation hayday of Jimmy Carter, the SP500 had a PE of 8.

Do the Math.

Inflation Expectations: Exaggerated or On Track?

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:54:23 -0500

Fat Panda and Poor Texan you are bagheads! :)
Inflation is defined as a 'sustained increase in a broad measure of product prices throughout the economy." It is not a narrow phenomenon. Some prices are rising, others falling, all the time. But if, ON BALANCE, prices are rising, then that is inflation.

Ticking Away: The Inflation Time Bomb

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:33:57 -0500

Mr. Winkler: place 4 gamblers in a circle. Everyone borrows 1 trillion dollars from the person on his left. Repeat 9 times (4x9=63, for you publik skool community organizers). The group collectively owes 63 trillion dollars to itself. Should I worry?

Healthcare Reform: Two Extremes, Neither Focusing on Health

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:04:27 -0500

Good. Some countries allow you to buy into their 'socialist' medical insurance programs. While on assignment overseas in the 1990s, I was insured by IHI Danmark.

Corporations Win Again - This Time It's Healthcare

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:09:06 -0500

Yeah...a BIG win man! Forced to cover people who wait till they are sick before they buy insurance; forced to insure criminal immigrants at federal expense; leading medical technology and drugmakers burdened with extra taxes, restricted profit margins, and less patent protection.

Long live Joe Liebeman!

U.S. Healthcare Legislation Investment Impact

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:53:16 -0500

Health Care companies as regulated utilities...hmmm...profit margins trimmed to the low teens and PE ratios on those earnings around ten. Do the math!

Longer-term Treasurys are sinking in the wake of the Fed statement: 30-year yield now +0.08 to 4.41%; 10-year +0.08 to 3.55%; 5-year +0.05 to 2.4%. Dollar moves lower against a few partners: now -0.9% against euro, -0.9% against pound, -1% against Swiss franc, +0.7% against yen.

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:17:34 -0500

WONDERFUL. Lower rates for promiscuous borrowers and folks who already have run up too much credit card debt. HIGHER rates for companies borrowing long term to develop new products and technologies. All praise and worship the Fed and the Manchild.

Ranking Sector ETFs: Healthcare Leads the Way

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:51:03 -0500

Its very simple. There is an INVERSE relationship between the Anointed One's approval ratings and the level of the SP500. Last week, when Sen. Lieberman announced he would join the filibuster against the Reid "920 Billion" (now up to 1.2 trillion) proposal, medical stocks soared.

Preparing for Higher Inflation

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:02:07 -0500

Prood that the CPI is a reliable measure of inflation and that oil, as a raw material, is a reliable leading indicator of the same.