cyclingscholar

U.S Treasuries: Heading for a Rally or an Implosion?

I just don't like 'crisis' scenarios, they are usually just latter day jeremiads. I say a weak version of scenario one. Stocks resume their decline, perhaps to a new low; bonds and the dollar benefit from some flight capital; commodities/gold sell off sharply.

Not until the US and the world make a major commitment to free markets, free trade, lower taxes, less crony capitalism, and less regulation, the world economy will continue a Jimmy Carter scenario of stagnation. Dow PE of 6, anyone???

An Earnings Season Options Strategy

Bah, Humbug! Spreads or Condors would be even better. Limited gains, but limited losses as well; and less capital commited.

The Liquidity Canard

Triptown: ===>....big LED sign on one of the walls which read: "Profits Today:__$180,000__. It was at 9:30am cst, the time of his interview...<===

Just how are these profits obscene and undeserved? $180,000 on HOW MUCH INVESTED CAPITAL? Are ya gonna tell me they have no days where they suffer losses?

The Liquidity Canard

Alan:

Perhaps it IS some semantics, and thanks for your comments. I think though the 'volume' argument is central to this thesis:

==>It's a hard argument to swallow when you consider that many high-frequency trading programs are simply engaged in trading the same stock thousands of times a day in less than penny increments<==

Back in the days before penny increments, the minimum fluctuation was 1/8 of a dollar, 12.5 cents...and unless and until that difference was sufficient, no trades took place. In addition, commissions were non competitive and fixed.

cyclingscholar.


On Aug 26 01:05 PM Alan Young wrote:

> You make a nice distinction, but I don't believe that Goldstein is
> confusing the two. On the contrary, it seems to me he describes the
> problem very well. Perhaps you agree about everything except semantics.
>
>
> On Aug 26 12:07 PM cyclingscholar wrote:

The Liquidity Canard

Goldstein confuses LIQUIDITY with TRADING volume, and they are not the same thing. Liquidity is the ability to execute orders without having much impact on the security's price, and is best measured by bid-ask spreads. Increased trading in recent years is merely a reflection of lower commissions on trades, and the increased sophistication (not the same thing as knowledge) of traders.

Bond Expert: Wednesday Outlook

When the fed bought treasuries in late November TBond prices jumped by what...10 points, over a sustained burst of buying lasting two weeks or so.

Once that sucker rally ended..the fed has bought TBonds again...what have we got this time? A one day rally on suspiciously low volume and not much follow through.

So Far. :)

cyclingscholar