cyclingscholar

Market Volume: Still an Unanswered Question

It might not be as bad as ya think. Unless there is a reason to believe that the 'black box' volume is a constantly varying proportion of all transactions, then the reported exchange volume will be useful. I have charts that show BATS volume (estimated) and it correlates very well with exchange reported volume for almost all active stocks and major ETFs: SPY, DIA, and QQQQ.

Just as a scale which is 'aways off by 10 pounds' can still tell ya your weight is higher or lower, so can reported volume be useful if we assume 'black box' volume is a constant proportion of all trades.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

Mr. Lounsbury, 'market capitalization' is a function of how many shares are publicly traded, as well as the $ Level of those shares. As more companies went public in the 1980s and 1990s, i think this biases your data upward. A bubble is more likely to be detected using valuation measures like P/E, P/Cash flow, P/Sales, etc. If the NYSE and NasDaq tightened listing restrictions (heavens!) your plotted line would collapse.

Financials: Missing the Rally and Warning for the Future

A sure sign of a weak mind is someone who thinks the market is MANIPULATED. And by the way, your second 'lower high' isn't a high yet, prices would have to fell below the intervening valley (or at least near it) before you could say that is a high.

They will indeed, do so. But manipulation will play no part in it.

Options Trader Thursday Outlook: Get Ready for the Next Million Layoffs

State employees are overpaid, underworked, overf**ked and underloved; all deservedly so. The solution is slash PAY, not PAYROLLS, by 40 or 50%, and ya may as well start with those publik school teachers who are cranking out illiterate, innumerate imbeciles.

Why the Anemic Market Action?

VWAP: Very White Anglosaxon Protestants. Always been leading indicators! Seriously, Doctor Kris....the vast majority of the value of your article is pointing out the failure of the transports to confirm the Industrials in recent weeks. This goes back to the Dow Theory, which predates any analyst on wall street who is alive at the moment.

The Next Recession

You are spot on with deregulation. Where did cell phones, the internet, biotechnology, cheap airfares, UPS, FedEx, and computer games come from? Did ALGore Invent all of them? No, these major industries were deregulated or created from stale predecessors that had regulatory protection. Back in the stagflation hayday of Jimmy Carter, the SP500 had a PE of 8.

Do the Math.

Dow Theory Sell Signal?

Good article. Don't forget that one tenet of Dow Theory is that "LINES" can substitute for secondary reactions. Do you think the May-June sideways movement (it looked like a H&S in many charts) in the dow and transports might constitute such a line?

Scary though. If there has been no secondary reaction yet, then this entire move still constitutes a rally in a bear market. So die hard Dow theorists have been 100% cash thru this entire rally. Loyalty has its price.....:)

Looking for Signs of a Dollar Rally

The FED should take a page out of the Commie playbook and HINT that a rise in short term rates is 'just around the corner.' A huge selloff in commodities---oil, softs, natural gas, gold-- is exactly the kind of real kick the US economy needs to get going for real, instead of $250,000 a job stimulus street sweepers.

October: Market's First Post-Earnings Rally Reversal

DURU the guru!

Well said, though. A market that can't hold its gains on good news is lookin' for a correction, at least.

Trick or Treat for Markets?

Hey Macro-man...are you a fan of kim'chi? Whats with the emphasis on Korea? Don't you know that if the KOSPI doesn't reach new highs soon, they are gonna open up a brokerage at the border at Panmunjom and let the PRK folks buy stocks?

Inflation by Stealth

<<Inflation is classically described simply as an increase in the money supply>>

No, inflation is DEFINED as a sustained increase in the general level of prices.

Your article can't even get that right, and its all downhill from there.

World Recovery Is in the Hands of OPEC

Can china drill for oil off the US coast? YES THEY CAN!

Can venezuela? YES THEY CAN
Can cuba? YES THEY CAN.
Can Amerika? N'Obama NO HOW!

Recent Market Internals Suggest Further Movement to the Downside

Hey not-just-another-prett... don't ya mention the A/D line? Time honored technical indicator.

Women in hedge funds? I thought the distaff side was smarter than that. More power to ya.

A Breakdown or a Bear Trap? Will There Be a Rally on Wednesday?

20 day MA...what baloney. Look at the trendline in the daily chart connecting connecting the March low, July and early October selloffs. If that line breaks take prudent actions (trim longs, overbought stocks, etc). Don't be in a hissy fit to go short until other technical indicators confirm the selloff.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

"When the markets say one thing and government statistics say something else, we'll go with the markets every time. " WSJ.

So who's foolin' the numerous companies who beat TOP LINE estimates and actually grew revenues? All your 'study' does is look at LAGGING indicators.

This recession is deep, aggravated by silly redistributionist policies, and exaggerated by mark-to-market accounting. If a true recovery began in August 2009, you won't see employment figures improve till next spring.