Timon

Contango and Inventory: Clues to Oil's Trend

You said, "Even under the best of circumstances, it will be years before we're able to count that oil as actual supply, but its impact on prices is inevitable.". The preliminary info seems to indicate this discovery would increase BP's daily output in the gulf by 200,000 barrels per day, or about 3 minutes of daily global consumption. Ten years from now, rapid depletion rates following peak oil will more than swamp the miniscule impact of this discovery. Impact on prices = zero or as close to zero you can get.

When Will American Realize the World Has Changed?

In the reference to the Harold James comment in the third paragraph from the bottom, it should read "euro" and not "eurodollar".

A Sideways Market For the Next Decade?

I agree with the post, especially given the prospect of a continued longterm increase in oil prices, and the probable negative effect on growth and profit margins. Sideways, in fact, means negative, even assuming low inflation. If inflation averages 3 percent for the next 10-12 years, and the market stays sideways, you've lost 50 percent of the value of your portfolioe