Arun N

13 Comments

    • India's Recent Economic Growth Causing Infrastructure Problems [view article]
      There are a few infrastructure companies who focus on this - Power Grid Corporation of India, Larsen & Toubro, etc. do your research on myiris - sector wise list. Sep 25 10:50 AM
    • Being Contrarian and Thinking of Buying [view article]
      Maybe you should wait a bit longer, its safer to buy after the bottom has been hit and stocks have started rebounding rather than buy and then watch it go down a lot more... Sep 18 11:00 AM
    • Zhongpin Has Great Earnings, but Does Anyone Care? [view article]
      Well said Aalan and Logicalthought.... besides this company making money by selling pork, it can't increase production forever, can't increase margins forever either. It will be a flash in the pan...i.e. it maybe at a forward 11 pe on a triple digit expected growth now, maynot be next year... Aug 13 08:43 AM
    • ICICI Bank: Unwarranted Beating, Proven Growth Prospects [view article]
      $51 may be the value you give it, its going to take a while getting there. Inflation can't be wished away - reasons are not far to seek - the government has been raising petrol prices after putting it off for too long. It still has a while to go before its done raising petrol prices. This is going to lead to more inflation and on a higher base... Elections are in 2009, the govt. will have created a classic recession by then trying to control inflation. What does this mean - Lots of NPAs for ICICI, (watch for the NPA percentage shooting up), demand loss for retail loans due to multiple reasons - IT market is saturated, growth is slowing, recessionary conditions forcing customers to slow spending. This is already showing up in multiple places. Maruti Suzuki has started offering huge discounts trying to shore up car sales. Aug 10 03:59 PM
    • Emerging Markets Infrastructure Is Booming [view article]
      Investing directly in infrastructure emerging market plays are also difficult. They are usually highly leveraged and are subject to swings in prices. You could consider L&T (Larsen & Toubro), ABB, Aban Offshore, IDFC (Infra Dev Fin Corp), Concor (Container Corp) and other in the Indian market. Jul 21 01:20 PM
    • Good Time to Buy Chinese Currency: Follow the 'Hot Money' [view article]
      If there is a risk of stagflation, PBOC will look to raise interest rates and control it at the expense of growth. It will also cause the rate of funds inflow to slow as investors are usually scared off by the term stagflation... Things can turn around mighty fast as foreign investors get cold feet. Besides the pull out of funds willl be faster as is evidenced in India. Don't follow the hot money because it is very hot already. Jul 11 10:23 AM
    • Smart Phone Wars: iPhone vs. Blackberry vs. ...Android? [view article]
      Before Blackberry, After Blackberry, Before i-Phone, after i-Phone. You can clearly see that there are differences in the market and how the market has evolved with these market changing products. Android is such a game changer. i-Phone restricts users to AT&T, Blackberry forces you to use its UI. Android will change both of these factors i.e. take your phone to any network and expect to work like it always did with all features and software customized to your needs. Apr 14 09:08 AM
    • BP Could Lose $20 Billion to Gazprom [view article]
      While that is all fine, investors ultimately go for potential valuation. If it means Gazprom gets +20Billion, this would ultimately reflect in the share price... Apr 09 09:21 AM
    • The Long Case for Chinese Smallcap Xinhua Finance Media [view article]
      XFML is well known for its coverage of news, but I am surprised that the author has compared it to FMCN which earns its revenues primarily from advertising not news coverage or other media. Mar 27 09:03 AM
    • Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets [view article]
      1) Gold is not consumed. You can always say I have my gold right here, stashed under my pillow, when you go to bed, you can't say the same of Oil or any of the other currently high flying commodities.
      2) Its odd that Bond vigilantes are asleep and in a coma. They will arise with full vigor shortly.
      3) Commodities traders beware, there's only so much the world can take. Don't drive the rest of the world into a recession as well. Demand is directly linked to the price at which it can be consumed.

      What does this article tell me ? A Global Recession is on the way and its going to be bad, its going to last longer than anyone expects and there are going to be very few safe havens. They will be the usual, Gold and Cash.
      Mar 17 07:44 AM
    • Google Should Hit 90% Search Market Share [view article]
      Have you used a Yahoo or a Microsoft search engine, if so how many times ? How many times did you feel that you had to use a Yahoo or a Microsoft search engine to get to the results. I have. Many times. I can tell you that Google is definitely heads and shoulders above. But I do not agree with you that Google will hit 90% of the search market. Its amazing that Google is getting an increasing share of a growing market but Yahoo and Microsoft are on too many web pages already for Google to be able to get to 90%.

      Besides you forget Google Toolbar, this invention has put the power of deciding the primary search engine in the consumers hands regardless of what Microsoft decides. Also Firefox has a 38% share and climbing share of the browser pie. So you can forget Microsoft posing any kind of serious challenge to Google in the search market. All it can do is limit Google in other areas by aggressively investing in them.       Mar 10 08:28 AM
    • India's Exploding Real Estate Market: Shades of the Florida Condo Bubble [view article]
      Anshu, To clarify, there is no Indian law restricting NRIs in the USA investing in equities directly - for example, Citibank's website offers to open brokerage accounts with Citicorp Investment services. See www.online.citibank.co...

      The problem arises when investing through mutual funds based in India -- PFIC becomes an issue for US based residents . See www.altassets.com/case...

      You can however invest in Indian equities directly - for this brokerages in India do not provide an online method, you will have to do it via phone or email only. You will still have to obtain the RBI's permission (PIS scheme or PMS scheme), set up demat accounts, identify the bank branch and bank account through which you will fund the broking account, make arrangements with your broker to report your transactions to the RBI. Its all a big hassle. I am investing in Indian equities directly from the USA through HDFC / Navia Markets for the last 2 years.

      Please investigate your tax situation and the types of accounts you would like to use - NRE / NRO etc. You can also find lots of useful information on this subject at www.r2iclubforums.com/.../

      RE: The Real Estate prices that you spoke about in your article, I agree with you that there is a bubble. But there is also accelerating demand - due to migration to cities, due to increasing salaries, due to SEZs and Real Estate companies buying up HUGE land banks, & amazing amounts of foreign direct investment in real estate in India (currently FDI in real estate is automatic, no prior RBI / FIPB permission is needed, so companies abroad can and do waltz in with their bubble money and buy up huge amounts of land). So while there is basis for increasing prices, prices as they currently exist are probably bubble like and like every bubble will burst sometime in future.

      Opinions expressed here are my personal opinion and do NOT reflect opinions of my employer or any other organization. They are NOT legal opinion, please consult your legal advisor before taking any action based on opinions mentioned here.       Feb 08 07:23 PM
    • India's Exploding Real Estate Market: Shades of the Florida Condo Bubble [view article]
      Your statement - "India does not allow direct investment in equity markets for non-resident Indian citizens (and definitely not not foreigners). " is factually incorrect. I know because I am NRI and I invest directly, legally.
      There are several web based brokers that support direct investments from NRI's especially from the Middle East region. Share Khan, India Bulls, Navia Markets all have NRI oriented support help sites on how to invest. You will need permission from the RBI (valid for 5 years), under the PIS (Portfolio Investment Scheme). You need a valid PAN number to apply, the funds that you invest will have to go through an identified branch and an identified account (PIS account). The funds that you invest can only be on a delivery basis i.e. you will have to take delivery of the stock before you can sell it (No short sales). There are limits on each Industry / Company on how much of the total equity can be held by FIIs & NRIs, once this limit is reached, no further investments are allowed. Every transaction needs to be reported to the RBI.
      It is true that Foreign Individual investors are unable to invest directly in Indian stocks. However, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are allowed, after they obtain permission from the RBI and SEBI.
      India is a land in transition, there are extreme variations in incomes. Delhi has the highest per capita income in the nation. Prices are supported by demand. If there is no demand, prices will come down. You can see this in Bangalore - there are several apartment builders who are sitting on vacant apartments in areas such as Outer Ring Road, Sarjapura Road. Incomes are going up 15% a year, i.e. doubling every 6-7 years. I know of several people in the age group 21-30 earning more than 12 lacs per annum, who own houses they purchased at 50-60 lacs. This was unthinkable 10 years ago. So the number of people earning high salaries has gone up significantly. This has caused asset inflation in all categories and consumption. This is what is driving the Indian Growth story. When will this end ? Good question. The RBI has already taken steps to cool the real estate sector. Some of its effects are already felt in high growth regions. It is expected that prices will fall 10-15% in these areas in the next 2-3 years.
       Feb 08 01:08 PM
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