ViewFar

Would a Trade War Help Solve the Problem of Excess Capacity?

Interesting article, but I tend to disagree with the conclusions. Savings is bad and savings rates have to come down - doesn't make sense to me. Over production happened as a result of the excess demand from the US. I would say demand destruction and supply destruction are better for the long term health of economies.. equilibrium will be re-established though the short to medium term pain will be excessive. Getting governments to consume because no one else will not work. China and other Asian nations do not have the vision or the government controls to do so. They are culturally short-sighted.

Good Time to Buy Chinese Currency: Follow the 'Hot Money'

If there is a risk of stagflation, PBOC will look to raise interest rates and control it at the expense of growth. It will also cause the rate of funds inflow to slow as investors are usually scared off by the term stagflation... Things can turn around mighty fast as foreign investors get cold feet. Besides the pull out of funds willl be faster as is evidenced in India. Don't follow the hot money because it is very hot already.

Global 'Oil Shock' Rattles World Stock Markets

1) Gold is not consumed. You can always say I have my gold right here, stashed under my pillow, when you go to bed, you can't say the same of Oil or any of the other currently high flying commodities.
2) Its odd that Bond vigilantes are asleep and in a coma. They will arise with full vigor shortly.
3) Commodities traders beware, there's only so much the world can take. Don't drive the rest of the world into a recession as well. Demand is directly linked to the price at which it can be consumed.

What does this article tell me ? A Global Recession is on the way and its going to be bad, its going to last longer than anyone expects and there are going to be very few safe havens. They will be the usual, Gold and Cash.