batmando

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Gabe -

NBER sez:
"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03." www.nber.org/cycles.ht...

Don't know about you, but I not buying a new SUV or Ford-150 pick-up this year (or next).
The corn mill machinery manufacturer for whom I do tech writing isn't seeing new orders (domestic or export).

Just had to reduce the rent on a rental despite all those foreclosed, previous home owners forced into the rental market.

DHL likely to close its hub in Wilmington OH (6,000more unemployed).

NASCAR fans still going to the races, yes, but camping and grilling out instead of staying in hotels and eating out.

So a consumer-led recovery not likely.

If I were a foreign investor I likely wait for more of the trillion dollar (or mote) write-downs to find their way out of the financials woodwork. In the meantime, I'm just sitting on my hands for a spell rather jump into a "bargain" U.S. equities.